more "Some" Talk -- and Fundamentals vs the "hope" of growth Talk

 

 

Market Talk

 

 Today, as the year closes out, the Dow is sitting near all time high.  At the same time the country is in trouble with the pandemic and troubling events such as the Nashville bombing.  While the market turns n churns, there seems to be positioning being done and under-performing stocks being sold for tax loss offsets.

 

Stock Talk

  

My strategy is a some strategy to try to endure periods of lackluster near- term performance for hopefully longer term gain.

 

Some stocks, like the XL and CleanSpark (CLSK) have had tremendous runs since I posted in just two weeks. On the other hand, holding shares in the second tier of companies in a developing sector, such as in biotechs, can be a frustrating  experience.  The stocks can be more subject to the ups and downs that it takes to "get there" and the periods where "the process" just seems to take too long.  In the C19 treatment space be it a vaccine or an antibody, the market may take a breather for the 2nd tier companies that are not immediately delivering. Pfizer and modern and their respective mRNA vaccines are slowly being distributed.   This may take the air out of the space for 2nd tier companies that are trying but "the process" is frustrating delivery.

I have posted that I consider all such stocks trading stocks with maybe a "some"long position if merited.  It is up to everyone to determine what they are comfortable in their own situation, knowing the speculative aspects of whatever stock they are holding.

In the market,  "something always happens" to affect our picks. 

For me, I traded for some gain on CleanSpark and XL.  The recent more than 50% pops were enough to say maybe a pullback is due. The fundamentals vs "hope" of enough growth may have gotten ahead of itself in the hope department.

A gain is a gain.  The rest ?  In end of year tax season sell off times, maybe "some" won't hurt too much, to wait n see said the blind man.

 

For me a few "Some" stocks and Dry $ powder awhile to greet the new year and see.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.. 

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Compelling Stocks To Watch - and "some" talk

 

Stock Talk

  

The following is a list of compelling stocks to watch.

 

VAXART (VXRT):  As the C19 virus mutates, an oral vaccine pill is too compelling not to be watching as it progress in the Phase 1 FDA clinical trial. Some may say it's too late to the game. But the even more highly contagious virus mutants may compel some governments to use safety data and extrapolate efficacy data on the Vaxart VXA-CoV2-1 Oral Pill to order and ship out vaccine globally to countries where super cooling vaccines are just not practical. Watch VXRT.

 

Sorrento (SRNE) : Sorrento's C19 antibodies in testing are basically one or two doses in easily administered shots and nasal drops, not long intravenous sessions like what Trump got at Walter Reed.  The public needs these at home treatments ASAP.  The human trial should be accelerated and safety and efficacy determined faster than normal FDA due process in this pandemic growing worse not better. Darpa recently endorsed Sorrento with a $34 Mil award.  Watch SRNE.

Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO)  This has been a hard stock to hang on to some but this company is on the leading edge with DNA based treatments target the various cancer, invade the wayward cells and destroy cancer with the patients own newly trained immune system. At the current level, INO is  a hold some in my view. In addition, if the reader wants to read a story about how the DOD is preparing for pandemics (and mutant virus!) and even defense against biological warfare, read my previous post.

 http://stockstowatch.blogspot.com/2020/12/the-dod-plan-to-help-save-human-race.html

CleanSpark , Inc (CLSK)

Watch this one. Not only an energy company with software and tools to manage industrial, commercial and on/off grid residential applications, CLSK  has set up a bitcoin center to mine bitcoins as model of energy savings. Just in within a few days, CleanSpark announced mining of 10 bitcoins valued over $200,000 total.  I posted about CLSK and pondered if it would continue the stock run into higher highs. I don't know, but it is a compelling stock to watch as it is gaining investor interest.

Pivotal Investment Corporation II (PIC).  This stock was a Cramer pick on his Friday mad money show.  Apparently, Cramer said the jist of the story is that PIC is set to acquire or merge with XL Fleet that is into electric trucks drive train systems. Let's face it electric vehicles seem destined to reign over internal combustion engines in the future.  I see that XL Fleet just landed a big contract with Ford Motor Co on the F 550 chassis which is used "for applications including municipal transportation, utilities, construction equipment and customer service vehicles."

 https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201216005324/en/

Cramer may have  a winner of a pick with PIC and he suggested buying some under 20.

Yamana Gold (AUY). This stock is range bound and appears to be range bound in the 5's and maybe the 6's.  But if Bit Coin can reach over $20,000 for one cyber mined notional coin, what can happen to a Gold that has to be actually mined with on the basis of real miners with enough "piss n vinegar" in them to get up, go out in cold or unpleasant environments and dig up tons of earth to get maybe 3 g/t of gold? I am not saying Yamana is going to blast off in stock value anytime soon.  However, as countries produce more paper money to fund pandemics and lethargic economies and democratic cities moving towards socialism, the value of real gold may increase to new highs just as Bitcoin is doing.

 Conclusion:

These are interesting stocks to watch in my view. They are in the emerging speculative category.  Perhaps "some" will do to keep my interest as I watch.  Some are too compelling for me not to be in "some".  Notice I use the words "some", not too much  a lot?  And "dry $ powder".

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.. 

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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The UK mutant Virus is coming - We need the FDA to accelerate itself.

   

Situation Room Talk

  

So the C19 virus has mutated and surfaced in the UK that may be twice as catchy than the original version.  Is it here in the US yet?  Probably and, if not, it will be. Just over the weekend, we see unprecedented shut downs in the UK.

 

It would seem logical that the 2nd tier companies that some may represent better next generation treatments would be ramped up to address the threat.  Will that happen?  Call me jaded but "FDA process" to determine safety and effectiveness does not often get circumvented. But we do see Emergency Use Authorization (EUA).  Indeed, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are being released as approval under EUA status.

 

Vaxart (VXRT)

The UK rapid infection strain is probably already here in the US.  It means serious lock downs are coming.
 

Solution? 

The Vaxart VXA-CoV2-1 Oral Pill  will likely be proven Phase 1 safe in my view and soon.  The hamsters on the pill did much better than the control arm.  There may be pressure coming for the FDA to allow use of empirical effectivness data to EUA  to every US citizen that wants an easy pill to take at home.  Will the FDA respond like that?  doubtful.

But Vaxart should get the message out that they can do that and have the public and news media pound tables to make it happen. If they can't succeed in the US, other countries may scramble for Vaxart's Oral vaccine pill that transports and stores and is easy to swallow.

 

Some say since it uses the mucus system of the small bowel to launch protection that it could be even MORE effective that shots. This is postulated because C19 most often uses viral droplets to invade the mucus system.

Sorrento (SRNE) :  As the UK mutant takes hold,  infections will increase at an alarming rate.  Many, many people will catch C19 and the mutant forms well into 2021 and beyond.   Sorrento (SRNE) is covering the bases in developing novel testing and antibody treatments on the table of development in early clinical trails.

Sorrento's C19 antibodies are basically one or two doses in easily administered shots, not long intravenous sessions like what Trump got at Walter Reed.  And then there is Covi-Drops, the newly announced nasal drops that a doctor could possibly prescribe for at-home treatment and protection.  The public needs these at home treatments ASAP.  The human trial should be accelerated and safety and efficacy determined faster than normal FDA due process in this pandemic growing worse not better

 Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO) uses the genetic code of a dangerous virus to quickly create a DNA based vaccine to help the immune system recognize the pathogen and in turn create messenger RNA to launch targeted antibody and T cells to provide immunity.   The INO4800 is in a Phase 2 trial.  If C19 and its mutants appear on the scene much faster than anticipated, could  Inovio's vaccine be accelerated through the process?  Perhaps not in the US.  However, other countries with large populations may decide that Inovio's vaccine safety and efficacy profile in other similar SARS epidemics such as MERS and the trial data of Phase 1 and ongoing Phase 2 is sufficient, weighing the need to save life.

There could be a push to EUA Inovio's INO4800 in countries in need outside the US that have a difficult time deploying cold storage vaccines from the two  m RNA vaccines.

Conclusion:

The above highlights areas that should be accelerated in my view. Will they? I won't hold my breath waiting on this speculation and won't bet on it in a large way.  But holding "some" shares of each of the above for the long game. Any of the above companies are buyout candidates as well. 

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.. 

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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When "good 'nuff" may be the best for some Countries. Vaxart Oral Vaccine talk

 

 

Market Talk

 

Today, the Dow sits near 30,200. Is the market becoming  "priced to perfection" regarding recovery in 2021 ? I will leave it for the reader and the future to say.

 

Stock Talk

   

In the C19 vaccine space, the initial deployment of Pfizer's and soon Moderna's mRNA vaccines, seems to have taken the air out of the vaccine stocks. The market seems to think "it's over n done" and already priced into Pfizer and Moderna stocks. That appears to be today's market "perception".

There are also what we now see as what I call "2nd tier" Covid 19 companies because they are not the first on the scene.  These are the lower cap stocks that I have been watching as they go about generally unnoticed in their goals to bring possibly "next generation" vaccines and new antibody treatments through the FDA process and to market. 

As the future unfolds, can we expect the "powers that be" try to maintain Pfizer and Moderna hold on the vaccine space, even if other's are proven to be superior?  For example if these mRNA vaccines prove out to be temporary and short lived will the powers  continue to throw roadblocks and monkey wrenches at possibly superior vaccines and antibody treatments of companies such Inovio,  Sorrento and Vaxart ?  These have  high institutional interest indicating promise as well heavy shorting, with bears hoping for the opposite.

In  a previous post I predicted correctly that a feeling of overcome by events "obe" would happen to these stocks.  As such we are seeing recent lackluster share price performance.  The "it's gonna be awhile"  feeling is there.  We see government involvement in relatively small darpa awards (as compared to the $ billons to others).  I will now share my view on how I will handle this.

The past year has proven two things to me on INO, SRNE and VXRT:

1.  These are trading stocks until proven otherwise. They have been joyfully praised and risen at times with positive sentiment, only to be whip-lashed down unmercifully "to longs", especially to those in too deep. In this "wait n see", I will hold some shares but not enough to hurt bad if things don't work out.
2.  Each company has long attributes to stay long in a small core position. 

INO -  S. Korea ordered C19 vaccine from other companies and that was discouraging to this observer.   INO has a promising pipeline to treat several forms of cancer with their DNA treatments intended to train antibody and fighter t-cells of the immune system to enter and destroy cancer cells. my view  - I hold "some" shares (not enough to get hurt) set n' forget for awhile. It seems like it's gonna be awhile but the bottom may be in or near. I won't be surprised if it fades to 8 ish in the meantime.

SRNE - has made some compelling progress in creating powerful antibody responses in animals to the C19 virus. Sorrento now has backing of Darpa with a $34 M award to rapidly pursue antibody shots like the STI 2020 and Covi-Drops nasal drops that could hopefully allow physicians to prescribe at home treatments to the ill circumventing the over crowding of hospitals. Today, US hospitalizations exceed 110,000 C19 patients. That's a lot of damage caused by C19.

I hold some SRNE, waiting on an update but if the stock fades some I don't have too much that I'm gonna get hurt.

VXRT - The oral vaccine possibility that could make  it so simple to vaccinate many has much appeal.  It has shown to create immune responses in golden hamsters and is now in the Phase - 1 clinical trial with humans.  I hold some and offer the following observations.

As Pfizer rolled out initial vaccine in the UK and US, many vaccine stocks faded.  But VXRT was holding up fairly well in the 7's and 8's. why?

Is it possible that the drawbacks of cold chain requirements of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are becoming more daunting than many thought.  If they lose super cooling they become ineffective. Other countries are watching.

If the vaccine pill of Vaxart VXA-CoV2-1 proves safe and effective in an enteric coated pill, it would be a major influence in other countries. The FDA process seems too cumbersome and mired with the politics, process and influence of big Pharma to get the Vaxart oral vaccine in US anytime soon.   

But, I will postulate the notion that other countries may want it sooner. And actually pre-order Vaxart's pills on partial data from the clinical trials.  Indeed we see a group planning to explore potential use in Maylasia. What about some countries in Africa?

Such an event would be a huge happening and catalyst to propel VXRT stock higher.

Now would I sit around waiting for other countries to pre order Vaxart oral vaccine?  No.  But I will hold some VXRT stock without worry because it's just  "some" . As time goes on and dips happen, all things being equal, I may just add more VXRT.

Some may ask where has an oral vaccine ever been used?  answer - Polio.

I can see some advantages of the Vaxart pill treating C19.  Some proponents speculate that it may create immunity better than others because it uses the mucus system of the small bowel and emboldens the entire mucus system where C19 attacks.

If interested, read it yourself on the Vaxart web site.

https://vaxart.com/platform-advantages/

"Vaxart oral recombinant vaccines are formulated as tablets that are enterically coated for efficient delivery to the small bowel. The enteric coating protects the active ingredient from the acidic environment in the stomach."

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 another view of Vaxart from the Motely fool.

 https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/vaccines/vaxart-covid-19-oral-vaccine 

Keith Speights, the Motely Fool...  "One I think you and I have spoken about before -- Vaxart (NASDAQ:VXRT). Vaxart has an early-stage oral tablet. The idea of having a vaccine that you just pop a pill, so to speak, instead of getting stuck with a needle, that would be quite intriguing. Very low market cap there -- below $1 billion. Again, it's early stage, but if they're successful, Vaxart could really take off."

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Bottom Line Conclusions

In the 2nd tier or "next generation"  pharma companies, I'm holding "some" of INO, SRNE and VXRT.  Some, not too much.

VXRT  may have an interesting surprise catalyst because the appeal of an easy to ship and swallow vaccine for C19 protection would be a game changer.   Perhaps other countries with C19 outbreaks will say "good enough for us  and bring it on!". 

With today's print of VXRT in the 7ish range, there may be some time to play it cool and maybe buy "some" on dips if the view gets rosy.

 and dry $ powder.

 

 

 

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.. 

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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An Energy and Bitcoin story - CleanSpark?

 

 Market Talk

  

With the market excited about the C19 vaccines being deployed and the possibility of more stimulus, it is looking past the pandemic and maybe into economic recovery the summer or autumn next year.  I will not try to prognosticate on how that will actually go, but paint me somewhat cautious as the market reaches all time highs.

 

Stock Talk

 

 Like a lot of investors and traders, I continue to watch stocks within the parameters of being under-recognized and with growth left in share value. Such parameters can also present a fair amount of risk.  Usually considered a small cap stock and often sold short with bettors taking an opposite position. If they fail to perform as anticipated sometimes the market will be unforgiving in devaluing  share price as shorts increase the notional float (shares outstanding) to buy back lower and reap profits.  There are many dark forces that can waylay "hope" of a small cap speculative position.  When we toss our hat into the ring with a position of some new prospect we do so full well knowing the stock is in a sea of sharks and I use the word "some", meaning "not too much" a lot here.  The one thing is to try to buy low and sell higher and if the company delivers it may be a good stock to stay long in some. That is the goal.

But in practice, it doesn't always work out.

A fundamental analysis  in solid companies includes assessment of earnings per share (eps) , both actual and estimated, Price to Earnings (PE) ratio, book value, along with accumulated debt.  A few companies defy such analysis and soar in share price (early Amazon, Tesla, etc) because the market believes that future growth is so attractive that it marks up the share value and they actually start to deliver expected performance. Certain sectors, like technology, are more forgiving of bad current fundamentals if high growth is expected.   Also, for example,  in biotech companies that are developing new drugs and treatments become takeover candidates by big pharma for huge markups if the treatment helps or even cures an unmet need. This happened, for example, in the recent cures for hepatitis C.

Today, I am going to take a different tact away from the C19 vaccine space.  Keep in mind, the following is not a recommendation.  But it is something I am watching because it is kind of an interesting "story".  We know to be cautious of "story stocks".  Sometimes story stocks can catch some air and take off if the story holds up in "Growth "  - and captures investor interest.  (So did tulip mania happen in the 17th century until it crashed.)

With the above preamble and cautions, I will now present a stock I have started watching that is kind of interesting. But it is not because the current fundamentals are good in my view. The earnings per share listed looks like a terrible - $4.44.  However, we see that at least one analyst is reiterating a buy rating on CleanSpark, Inc. (CLSK). We maintain a healthy skepticism of analysts but as a matter of interest I will re-post as follows:

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cleanspark-inc-nasdaq-clsk-sole-065811199.html

--Analyst Actions: HC Wainwright Adjusts CleanSpark's Price Target to $24 From $18, Reiterates Buy Rating BY MT Newswires— 11:40 AM ET 12/11/2020

"About CleanSpark (CLSK):

CleanSpark (CLSK) offers software and intelligent controls for microgrid and distributed energy resource management systems and innovative strategy and design services. The Company provides advanced energy software and control technology that allows energy users to obtain resiliency and economic optimization. Our software is uniquely capable of enabling a microgrid to be scaled to the user's specific needs and can be widely implemented across commercial, industrial, military, agricultural and municipal deployment. Our product and services consist of intelligent energy controls, microgrid modeling software, and innovation consulting services in design, technology, and business process methodologies to help transform and grow businesses."

_________________

In plain language, my take is CLSK develops control management software to efficiently integrate various distributed forms of power sources such as solar and wind with the public grid in the micro grid of that environment. There is energy savings that can be gained and well worth the effort in industrial settings.

Now this is where a recent move of CleanSpark gets kind on interesting. Enter a new Bitcoin story.  Here is a snipit of the following link:

  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cleanspark-bitcoin-mining-revenue-could-005621305.html

 
"Last week, the microgrid software player announced it is buying bitcoin miner ATL Data Centers. The purchase will cost CleanSpark $19.4 million in an all stock deal, and will mean CleanSpark will get its hands on ATL’s 3,471 mining rigs."

Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency that has captured the interest of many because it is not related to any one country and the variables of that currency like inflation. New bitcoins have to be "mined" using algorithms and high energy data servers. This notion is foreign to many of my generation.  However, people in bankrupt socialist  countries such as Venezuela are turning to crypto currency such as Bitcoin.  In addition many younger Americans believe in crypto currency and are buying and trading in bitcoins.

The goal of CleanSpark in buying a data miner, is to show how their products can improve energy usage to make it less expensive to mine bitcoins.  So it is a demonstrative move.  But at the same time ONE bitcoin value is currently at $19,350 .

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cleanspark-agrees-to-acquire-bitcoin-miner-atl-data-center-301190492.html

There are currently 3,471 bitcoin mining units ("ASICs") in daily operation on site, processing approximately 190 PH/s which are using approximately 9.6 MW of capacity.  We anticipate that upon completion of the equipment and energy expansion, the facility is expected to produce between 0.9-1.4 EH/s, depending on the final configuration and ASICs deployed. We expect that this will result in multiple bitcoins being produced daily at some of the lowest energy costs in the nation for this type of enterprise.  The Company expects to demonstrate that, by using our technologies, we can reduce the cost of energy to below $0.0285 per kw/h.  After successfully deploying the systems, we intend to take this model to other sites, many of which have significantly higher energy costs offering potentially greater opportunities for savings." 

Bottom Line

CleanSpark is an interesting stock to watch.  With the current Bitcoin hoopla on an international basis, one premise is that if CLSK shows that it's energy savings delivers more Bitcoins that require high energy to "data mine".  The company also will showcase how other  industrial centers can save by using their microgrid management tools with battery storage units to lower energy costs significantly.  Interesting story!  Will the market continue buying up CLSK shares to be in "some" and thus drive the share value higher?  To that I would not dare to say at this juncture.  I have learned to stay cautious and humble in making predictions especially as to market behavior.  If venturing into a position, I always use the word "some" not "too much" especially with speculative stocks . Why?  because "something always happens!" and beware dark forces around hope and story stocks. With all that, energy savings and  Bitcoin is interesting to watch as it relates to  CleanSpark.

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.. 

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Could hospitals be emptied by Sorrento's Tests and Therapeutics? watching SRNE.

 

Stock Talk

  

Sorrento Therapeutics (SRNE) just received approval in California for use of their rapid C19 testing.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sorrento-receives-licensure-state-california-010600591.html
 

Sorrento also received FDA clearence to start Phase 1 clinical testing of STI2020,

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sorrento-receives-us-fda-clearance-140000204.html

 

If all goes well, it seems plausible that people can be tested for C19 and receive back a fast result. If they are showing symptoms, get a quick shot of Sorrento's antibody shot and send them home.

With over 100,000 C19 patients crowding US hospitals this is affecting people that need care all over.  Perhaps this is why darpa awarded $34 Million to Sorrento to hasten their development of STI2020.

Could providing an immunity boost with Sorrento's quick shot antibody and later in  nasal drops foster at home treatment of C19 and also increase worldwide immunity from this scourge unleashed on mankind?

 As a stock, SRNE is considered a 2nd tier stock because vaccine companies like Pfizer are catching all the market hoopla.  But in the $7 / $8 range "if" their recent tests and therapeutics gain traction and succeed, the market may reward SRNE.  Covid 19 is going to be with the world for quite a long time it seems.  But if a doctor can give a shot of STI 2020 or prescribe Sorrento's antibody nasal drops to help infected people gain immunity at home, it may make the situation much more manageable and return the world back to normal.

Over the next few weeks there will be a lot of market hoopla on people getting Pfizer's vaccine.

But I will be keeping an eye on Sorrento and I am holding "some" SRNE shares to see if they can deliver the goods.  The world would certainly benefit if Sorrento's product line, now with darpa backing, succeed.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.. 

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
___

When the "obe feeling" happens. (and more sayings)

 

Stock Talk

  

Watching your stock picks on a daily basis can be fun at times when you see that the market agrees with your foresight.  And when the market takes your picks down, it can be a wake up call or an opportunity. Either way, it can involve a decision.

I will add that a decision to do nothing is still a decision.  Traders have a saying, one who calls them self "a long" in a stock is often "a good trade gone bad". This is why I always try to temper my enthusiasm on a particular stock by saying "some", not too much.  In theory, it allows one to add to a good stock and "buy the dips".

Theory and practice are two completely different things.  Sometimes enthusiasm causes us to "buy too much" and then the market brings the sp down, like short sellers and/ or the company just misses the goal and the stock becomes less buy worthy and more sell worthy.  As events unfold and companies perform or don't, you get "a feel" that can lead to a gut feeling of "it's gonna be awhile". 

At such times, "hanging in there" may not be the best thing. A closer look at the portfolio and balancing losers out to preserve cash or "dry powder" may be warranted.

For example, take Yamana Gold.  Recent performance seems lackluster. I looked at some of the dig findings.  A 3g per ton is a minimum benchmark I use to figure if a company has a profitable mine. Actually 3g/ton and how deep it is.  I just gave the drill findings a precursury look, but while they have mine-able finds , making big enough earnings to impress the market  past the $6 per share mark seems a little tough.  That is unless gold skyrockets. Some say it may.  I don't know,  so I am trimming some shares of Yamana.

 

In other stocks, the C19 vaccine space has market hoopla on Pfizer and moderna' s mRNA vaccines being delivered to the UK and likely soon in the US after FDA approval.  This kind of keeps the pressure on the companies that are months off from possibly delivering a viable vaccine, new antibody or test.  I have already posted about how  Inovio got temporarily FDA delayed from their original goal.  The FDA and the DOD seem to want verification that the new models of Cellectra devices will give the same punch as the original model.  The unexpected  FDA delay at the end of September seriously damaged Inovio's prospects to deliver a C19 vaccine in a timely way.  Add that the market is clamoring about Pfizer and moderna and other big Pharma companies, it gives a bad feel about Inovio near-term sp with the many short sellers sensing a period of weakness. The longs look for "news" to break the current standoff.  But "the market" is more "now oriented".  Inovio has longer term pipeline and prospects that keep me in "some".

The similar dynamic is happening with Sorrento.  The recent $34 million funding by darpa is getting to be old news with prolonged lack of reports on how actual progress is being made on several projects.  I got into Sorrento on the basis of the reports that their antibody shots would gain traction. Surely, the government was recently convinced enough to fund $34 M.  The thing about Sorrento's antibodies is that they are intended to treat people after becoming C19 infected.  There are OVER 100,000 C19 patients in US hospitals!  But what is taking so damn long?  There are two companies that already have antibody treatments out there. I am holding some SRNE but my patience on lack of results makes me wonder why.

 

So where does this all leave me with a feeling?

 

obe  -  " overcome by events" is an acronym that comes to mind. 

When this feeling comes, sometimes a decision is to trim shares back to "some" and preserve dry powder, and take another look when not feeling so obe by "the market".  having just "some" of a company that you believe is a good long term position but under recognized makes it easier to take if the company continues to "under deliver" according to market standards.  Also sometimes it is a humbling thing to take a step back and look at the position from the market view. The name of the game is "more greens than reds" at the end of time you have given the company to perform. and more reds than greens makes one feel like its "just another lousy day" but "we keep on keepin' on" and live to "fight another day".

 have enough sayings? yea ok.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.. 

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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The DOD Plan to help save the human race.

 

Special edition of the Jones Report:

  

This purpose of this post is to describe a key goal of the USA Department of Defense (DOD) that is now obvious to this observer:

 

To Prevent Future (more deadly) Pandemics and even Human Extinction. 

 

A BBC report  sums up the matter as follows...

 

 "Long-dormant bacteria and viruses, trapped in ice and permafrost for centuries, are reviving as Earth's climate warms

 

However, what would happen if we were suddenly exposed to deadly bacteria and viruses that have been absent for thousands of years, or that we have never met before?

We may be about to find out. Climate change is melting permafrost soils that have been frozen for thousands of years, and as the soils melt they are releasing ancient viruses and bacteria that, having lain dormant, are springing back to life."

http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20170504-there-are-diseases-hidden-in-ice-and-they-are-waking-up 

"Neanderthals were very early (archaic) humans who lived in Europe and Western Asia from about 400,000 years ago until they became extinct about 40,000 years ago. Denisovans are another population of early humans who lived in Asia and were distantly related to Neanderthals."

 

What made the Neanderthals and Denisovans  extinct after over 300,000 years as successful inhabitants of earth?  Scientists do not fully know.  Could it have been a pathogenic virus, about 30,000 years ago, that spread and overtook their immune system to mass extinction?

 

 

 

It was likely a combination of factors, however a pandemic caused by a microscopic pathogen cannot be ruled out.

 

The world is currently experiencing the Covid 19 (C19) pandemic. Be it either developed or a natural mutation in bats, the C19 virus has an accumulated 1.52 million worldwide deaths and counting.  The C19 virus is not a mass-extinction pandemic.  The combination of natural immunity, man-made vaccines, antibodies and herd immunity removes mass extinction as likely possibility from the current pandemic.

However, viral pathogens mutate and without intervention by creation of rapid vaccine production it is plausible that a deadly virus could yet naturally mutate that has potential to wipe out mankind.

What prehistoric pathogens lurk below melting glaciers  and frozen tundras leak from beneath and can populate within wildlife and then to man?  As northern most locales become more accessible for mining, the possibility of unwittingly bringing up long buried unknown pathogens  from millions of years ago increases.

 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2210909910000056

 

"Global warming has various effects on human health. The main indirect effects are on infectious diseases. Although the effects on infectious diseases will be detected worldwide, the degree and types of the effect are different, depending on the location of the respective countries and socio-economical situations."

 

At no time in prior earth history has the likelihood of even more serious pandemics and even human extinction been higher by a yet unknown pathogen surfacing or from a biological mishap in a laboratory by "curious" scientists or biological warfare.

 

As the recent world wide C19 pandemic events unfolded, the rapid development, with support from Operation Warp Speed (OWS),  of mRNA vaccines by Pfizer and Moderna will be distributed as soon as the super-cooled vaccines can be manufactured and transported and shipped and then administered in a lengthy time consuming process.

  

The next pathogen may be much more efficient at spreading.  The DOD is taking steps to address the danger.  Every pathogen has a DNA genetic sequence that once cracked can be implanted with just the code of the antigen into a plasmid such that the immune system becomes trained to recognize the foreign invader and illicit a natural antibody and targeted T cell response. This is a DNA vaccine.

The messenger RNA vaccines for C19 by Pfizer and moderna use a messenger RNA process that will produce antibodies for a limited time. Thus far, it is not known for how long.  The the durability of such vaccines regarding the length of antibody protection is in question as well as the longer lasting T cell protective response. While mRNA vaccines have yet to be used in the market, early testing for at least four infectious diseases: rabies, influenza, cytomegalovirus, and Zika experiments have been done.

Biologically,  mRNA is transcribed from DNA and travels into a cell's cytoplasm where it's translated by ribosomes into proteins.

 

Conversely,  Inovio's DNA vaccine is applied such  that the DNA itself creates a balanced mRNA response to in-turn respond with balanced neutralizing antibodies and targeted T cells from the immune system.  In theory, and in practice, Inovio's MERS and Ebola vaccines are proven.

The Walter Reed Army Institute of Research Clinical Trials Center tested the DNA vaccine with Inovio Pharmaceuticals against another SARS virus similar to Covid 19 - the  Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS).  The "vaccine was well tolerated with no major side effects reported by the volunteers. More than 85 percent of volunteers exhibited a detectable immune response to MERS-CoV after just two vaccinations. This immune response persisted throughout the study and was similar in magnitude to the response seen in survivors of natural MERS-CoV infection."

 

https://www.wrair.army.mil/node/231 

 

 

While the FDA and OWS team has given companies with mRNA vaccines special privileges to accelerate development, the DOD is well aware that a more rapid, easier handling vaccine process is needed to respond to the next pathogen that can be even more deadly and rapid than Covid 19.

 

From prior partnership, the Pentagon is well aware that one small biotech company, Inovio Pharmaceuticals, is on the cutting edge of working towards bringing DNA vaccines and treatments for not just C19 but various deadly cancers and other diseases such as RRP.

 

https://www.inovio.com/

The DoD is currently sponsoring Inovio in the  recently continued Phase 2/3 FDA clinical trial evaluating INO4800 against Covid 19.

 

So many want to know why did the FDA temporarily  stop the INO4800 trial  with such a critical need to resolve the Covid19 pandemic?

 

The answer may be:

 

America has a higher goal in sight than " just beating Corona".   To that goal certain milestones must be met.

 

The way a DNA vaccine is delivered is important to gaining effectiveness.  Inovio's patented device called "Cellectra" has been used in several past and ongoing  trials.  Amidst the widely touted Billion dollar Pharma contracts to big Pharma by OWS, the Pentagon quietly awarded Inovio a $ 71 Million contract to develop and deliver advanced Cellectras to the DoD.  

 

Meanwhile, The FDA had questions on the transfer of use into the newer models.  The hold on the clinical trial has been lifted and use of the existing Cellectra2000.  There is concurrent validation on-going to assure that the  newer more adaptable model delivers an equivalent safe and effective dose of vaccine.

 
In addition, "the Department of Defense (DOD) awarded Ology Bioservices and Inovio a contract valued at $11.9 million to partner to rapidly manufacture a COVID-19 DNA vaccine. This work is supported by the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs with funding from the Defense Health Agency."

 

Conclusion

 

It is now abundantly clear that the facts point to DOD resources being applied to defend the US military against pathogens that include  Covid 19, but importantly, more deadly future pathogens.   It extends into preparation for a future pathogen that immediately requires a rapid process that can be trusted to create fast and more easily transported, stored and administered  protective vaccines. The Pentagon efforts with scientists from the US government and Inovio Pharmaceuticals are surging ahead to meet the challenge.  A key point is that data seems to show that more naturally balanced antibodies and longer lasting T cell immunity may prevail in the DNA vaccine with better safety and effectiveness than current mRNA vaccines offer.  America is not just working  to be better  prepared to protect the military in such confined places as Naval ships and submarines and at bases around the world. 

 

History shows that America is about more than itself.  Just  as America helped save the world from tyranny in WW2, the key outcome goal is for America to be better prepared to help save the entire human race (in all countries) from deadly pathogens surfacing from glaciers, frozen tundra melts, biological warfare threats as well as natural viral mutations.  

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.. 

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Trade some and "stay long" some? "something always happens"

 

Stock Talk

  

Holding shares in the second tier of companies in a developing sector can be a frustrating  experience.  The stocks can be more subject to the ups and downs that it takes to "get there" and the periods where "the process" just seems to take too long.  In the C19 treatment space be it a vaccine or an antibody, the market may take a breather for the 2nd tier companies that are not immediately delivering. Pfizer and moderna  have filed for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of their respective mRNA vaccines.   This may take the air out of the space for 2nd tier companies that are trying but "the process" is frustrating delivery.

At the same time some of the 2nd tier stocks have run higher and have come off their recent bottoms. Each company may have longer term prospects to "stay long" in.  However, we have seen how the market has treated these 2nd tier stocks in the form of whipsaws down.  For me, I consider these trading issues to maybe stay long in some and trade some on the spikes.

 

For example , Vaxart , the company with the oral vaccine.  Sounds great!  no super cooling needed and a pill form.  But , it's behind the others, just in Phase 1. It's had a good run.  Will it continue or sell off as Pfizer and moderna hoopla develops? The Pfizer vaccine is up for an FDA review for an EUA on December 10.

Would I say take some gain on Vaxart after the recent run?  No, I do not make recommendations here.  It paused today but maybe the run will continue.  I don't know.  But I will say that I did take some gain on VXRT and will keep it on my watch list.

"something always happens"

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.. 

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Sorrento gets a vote of confidence (and funding).

 

Stock Talk

  

Sorrento (SRNE) : As the vaccine news is getting much attention, let's not forget that many, many people will catch C19 before any vaccine is out to the general public and after as well. Possibly well into 2021 and beyond.   Sorrento (SRNE) is covering the bases in developing novel testing and antibody treatments on the table of development in early clinical trails.  Today, we see news on SRNE receiving funding from the government on one promising antibody they call STI 2020. 

 "If successful, it could provide an alternative method of protecting populations where vaccines do not work as well, such as the elderly or immunocompromised."

 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/darpa-jpeo-award-contract-smartpharm-130000106.html

Sorrento's C19 antibodies are basically one or two doses in easily administered shots, not long intravenous sessions like what Trump got at Walter Reed.  And then there is Covi-Drops, the newly announced nasal drops that a doctor could possibly prescribe for at-home treatment and protection.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.. 

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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A little story on why many won't get the best vaccine right away - BUT the Military may get it sooner.

 

Market Talk

 

As the market continues exuberance about three recent vaccines being announced.  The Dow is nearing the 30,000 all time high mark. Actual vaccines will not be available to the general public for months. Then the logistics of getting the current "super cooled" vaccines intact and stable to people will not be as easy as the market just assumes. Yesterday we hear of Oxford/ Astra vaccine.  Never mind that two cases of transverse myelitis caused a stop of that trial and one more would have ended it.   Never mind that Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines will result in severe fatigue and high fevers in many and the long term protection that these vaccines is in question.  It has been said that one reason the FDA cut corners with with the two mRNA vaccines is because key people in the NIH hold patents on part of the design.

There are signposts that one smaller company has a better mousetrap, Inovio Pharmaceuticals.   I have posted before that messenger RNA cells are created by the DNA.  Inovio uses the genetic code to train the body to recognize that pathogen called Covid 19 (C19) and the more recent mutant and to launch immunity in a more natural balanced response of neutralizing antibodies AND the fighter T Cells that could provide longer term protection against the virus.  Inovio uses a handheld device the call "Cellectra" to deliver  the vaccine called INO4800. They used a similar approach to gain an EUA in S. Korea against a similar virus of the past, MERS.  Incidentally, the DoD quietly awarded a purchase order of $71 million to Inovio and set up a Ology, a private manufacturer of needed plasmid to apparently produce  vaccines  at their expanded facility in Florida. The Cellectra award included  a clause for Inovio to work with Ology.  Why was this DoD planning all "hush hush" while the highly charged politics and Washington OWS team was awarding billions to Pfizer and Moderna to pursue vaccines that require super cooling in transport and storage? The FDA, the NIH  and the OWS team made up of mRNA proponents of big Pharma.

 "Since June 2020, 214 human cases of COVID-19 have been identified in Denmark with SARS-CoV-2 variants associated with farmed minks, including 12 cases with a unique variant, reported on 5 November. All 12 cases were identified in September 2020 in North Jutland, Denmark.Nov 6, 2020"

  Just a short time ago , attributed deaths to C19 in the US was 200,000.  As of today, deaths have climbed to 256,000 people.  Infections are surging and severe illness is now being seen in the younger population as well.

The FDA recently lifted the "question hold" on INO4800 to proceed with Phase 2 clinical trial.  In the meantime, the INO trial is continuing in S. Korea. And who is funding the Inovio trial?  You may have guess it - Yep, The DoD.

Not to belabor my point.  By hook or by crook, the government has managed to delay the best vaccine, INO4800, in terms of safety and long lasting  protection in favor of biased big Pharma executives pumping frozen hooey. In a hapless fashion, the underlying result may be that the general public will be getting 2nd rate vaccine while the best vaccine will be reserved for the government and military.

There are a number of plasmid manufacturers that Inovio can use to produce INO 4800.  Most recently, Inovio arranged with Thermo Fischer to produce vaccines should approval come.

This post told the story of how the FDA has suppressed what now could be the next generation of a better vaccine than what is being planned. Suppressed using "Cellectra questions" to hold back proceeding with their Phase 2/3 trial back in September.  Some people want to know why questions could not be worked at the same time as the ongoing Inovio trial in the Pandemic.  Such shenanigans point to how how big Pharma manipulates Washington deciders to their advantage. Where was Trump and Pence ?  Apparently wrapped up in being re-elected and clueless on this matter in my view.

In this story I close with an  important part that Inovio is currently using Cellectra to administer treatments to several serious cancers such as brain cancer and hpv treatments in various trials and is on track to be the next generation of cancer treatments using targeted DNA treatment.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.. 

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Wall Street looks past a grim Dark Winter of Democrat Hell on Main street

 

Market Talk

 

The market continues exuberance about recent vaccines being announced.  The Dow is over 29,500 as of this post. Actual vaccines will not be available to the general public for months. Then the logistics of getting the current "super cooled" vaccines intact and stable to people will not be as easy as the market just assumes.

Just a short time ago , attributed deaths to C19 in the US was 200,000.  As of today, deaths have climbed to 256,000 people.  On top of that Covid 19 infections are surging and severe illness is now being seen in the younger population as well.

So we see talk of lockdowns and various debates about applying lockdowns where the spikes occur. 

Since I live close to a Main street, I have a hard time getting behind this market and the pundits that are bullish.  I read one article that advocated buying stocks because it is "counter intuitive" and advocated doing the opposite of what the chart says that stock prices have peaked out.

To be honest,  I'll have to say I am skeptical about the market's rise.   Usually when this happens I just stay on the sidelines.  I hold "some" of the stocks I have posted about. For me, watching the progress or lack of progress in short and long term prospects of each particular issue and "trading"  accordingly  may be a thing to do. I may buy or sell some as developments progress or not.  

Since I can't get behind the apparent "market ebullience"  that looks past the coming pain and deaths on Main Street, I may forego posting for awhile. The market looks like a ship of fools to me from this vantage point. Then again, maybe things will be better in spring of 2021.  Maybe,  I hope so.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.. 

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Waiting on a better C19 vaccine and treatments: INO, SRNE and VXRT

 

Market Talk

 

The market is exuberant today on Pfizer's and Moderna's 90% or more effective C19 vaccine pronouncements with no data.  Perhaps so, but side effects and questions on the lasting effect of protection from the two shot frozen vaccines as well as the practicality of having to transport, store and administer them are concerning. Both Pfizer and Moderna execs have been selling their shares after the no data pump n dump jobs.

At this point, will wait before taking any pump n dump frozen vaccine from Pfizer or Moderna.   Both tweak my BS meter along with a potentially biased FDA toward Big Pharma.

I suspect that there may be better vaccines and treatments in the wings as touched on below.  These are small biotech's and a speculation with a high risk and potentially high reward.  These stay on my "some" not  "too much" list.

 Stock Talk

Inovio (INO) - the FDA lifted the hold on the Phase 2 part of the C19 vaccine called INO 4800. This is a DNA vaccine and unlike mRNA Pfe and moderna vaccines, Inovio's vaccine can be stored at room temperature for a year and refrigerated for up to 5 years.  Further, there are Inovio pipeline treatments in clinical trials for HPV and gbm brain cancer.  Announcements are not far off on Inovio's pipeline. I am staying long on some INO to see what I believe is potentially a disruptive biotech.  Such disruptive treatments like their DNA technology will find institutional hurdles and short sellers being tossed at them.  But often as they emerge,  big Pharma typically buys them out or takes them over at a premium over market. I suspect that part of the shorting going on is by big Pharma agents  working to keep the sp lower so the stock does not get too high before a takeover attempt. some may say Oh they can't because of a poison pill. However, once a big Pharma accumulates 25% of a company's stock intentions can become more clear because it has to be declared by SEC practice.

INO is starting to surge on today's news of the FDA lift of INO4800 hold. I believe today's pop is peanuts compared to the future value and I am holding .

 Sorrento (SRNE) -  has FDA cleared trials for giving C19 patients an antibody dose of CoviGuard (STI1499) at Temple hospital in Philadelphia.  Trials on additional refinements (eg, STI 2020) are starting as well. Since I posted that, Sorrento reported yet another C19 treatment, Covi-Drops nasal drops to administer protection against C19 in infected people.  If SRNE's STI 2099 works, this would be a boon to rendering  C19 ineffective in progressing and could be an at home treatment that Doctors can prescribe.

Vaxart (VXRT)  - This is a speculative company that is working to bring an oral tablet C19 vaccine to the market.  It is early but VXRT is reporting positive data in golden Syrian hamsters. It seems these hamsters are the gold standard for animal studies prior to gaining FDA clearence for human clinical trials.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/11/12/vaxart-reports-more-positive-data-from-animal-test/

It goes without saying that an oral vaccine, if proven safe and effective will have great advantages, especially in countries where frozen vaccines are not practical

 In Sorrento's case , the shorts have attacked the sp because the company is pursing  a broad line of products to address C19 and bigger things such as lung cancer (STI5656), but the regulatory process takes time. 

While these three are working through regulatory process, the shorts have pounced upon the stocks. This keeps these three  stocks in the speculative category.  However,  I suspect there is a fair chance things may turn around if they deliver.

In closing, another stock that looks to be a fair investment to sustain sp on metals is Yamana Gold (AUY)  on Gold and silver. I hold some shares of AUY and may buy more on dips. Yamana is projecting higher production and is increasing the dividend.  Those are two fundamentals that appeal to me. 

 

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.. 

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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