When The Fed changes tone on Interest rates to combat inflation, watch out.

 

Market Talk
 

Quick post to say that when the Fed goes hawkish after being dovish on interest rates be careful.

maybe some in a stock but too much can be a painful slide as the market punishes bulls. I don't make recommendations but having some dry powder if the market takes a downturn can save a lot of grief.  Interest rate sensitive stocks that depend on people borrowing to make purchases can suffer hard in such times.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Government Policy has me circumspect on the markets.

 

Market Talk
 

The democrats, with the majority in congress, have a socialist agenda under a guise of infrastructure.  Inflation is rampant with rates higher than in 30 years.  The Fed with Jerome Powell as the Federal reserve Chairman is expected to start raising interest from all-time lows in 2022.  However, the Fed has been dovish while they have dished out unemployment checks and it seems some are reluctant to get off the gravy train. Meanwhile a trend of shoplifting and lawlessness is growing across the country. California is a trend setter with allowing thieves to steal just under $ 1000 a day and if caught be charged with just a misdemeanor and go on.   But the police are overwhelmed in the cities and they typically just get away with it.  The woke democrats seem to think this is "equity".  Is it a ship of fools?   America's supply in oil pumping is down 10% and talk of using the strategic reserves are in play. sheesh.

Now the above is a view from main street not the market.  The market is looking to what it perceives as winners and losers from policy.  The Democrat policy is to rely on Russia and Opec to produce more oil while America was energy independent before Biden got in. Now he begs Russia and the middle east to produce more oil as they laugh at us. Oil and gas are going sky high and are a big inflation factor.  Interest rate hikes are not going to change oil prices.  The dems use climate change as the crisis to justify socialist "woke" policy of all sorts.  There is a way to transition to cleaner energy but the heavy-handed manipulative way of the socialist democrats is not the right way. There has got to be a better balance of policy to reflect the center not radical left-wing policy.

Stock Talk

The above preamble leaves me circumspect about the way America is headed.  One could say yeah forget about it all and watch infrastructure stocks.  For now, I'm still shaking my head and pondering.  Are we, the ones who grew up with the greatest generation as family the only ones - who see it?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkKb4Zt48x8

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Gold and Silver - breakout coming or "Already ran" ?

 

Market Talk
 

In this post, I am going to refrain on commenting on where bad decisions and policy are taking our country.  However, on the economic front there is one thing that is happening-  Inflation. Bad inflation at rates  that we haven't seen in 30 years.  The Fed changes their view of "transitory" and remains less vigilant on the notion of raising interest rates  in the near term for the risk of slowing the economic recovery.

Stock Talk

With the above preamble, I  have been pondering if the recent rise in commodities  will spill over to a breakout on  Gold and silver.  On the other hand, the counter view is that they have already run and it may settle down.  With inflation seeming to be here, I am forming a view that Gold and Silver may just be ready to breakout much higher.

There is another factor in play in my viewfinder and that is the recent hoopla on bitcoin and other Crypto currency.  Crypto is in opposition to Fiat currency, that is those based on Governments like the US Dollar for example.  In a very real way Crypto can subvert trust in Fiat and Crypto is being used as an inflation hedge. In fact, I believe that it is becoming a serious threat to confidence in the US dollar. This happened to Gold back in the 30's and the US Fed took action on gold holdings.  Could they be planning action on Crypto ?  I suspect it may come in the form of higher taxes on Crypto gains. Crypto subverts the US Dollar.

China , for example, has already outlawed Crypto. However, China is exporting Crypto mining computers to outside countries like the US.  Again,  I have a suspicion that the US officials are waiting to quell the rise of Crypto by imposing special tax increases in Crypto gains.  If that happens it could create a Crypto CRASH.  And it would seem logical that people that have been hiding their funds in crypto could realize that hard gold and silver is a safer way to store value in inflationary times.  Regardless if the above story plays out, Gold and Silver are looking like a place to possibly maintain an allocated portion of a portfolio and "may" breakout higher or it may not decline in value as much as buying power of cash.

These are some Bull etf's that I am looking at :

GLD, a gold etf

SLV,  a silver etf

There are also leveraged double 2 X's bull ETF  on Gold and the miners as well. These leveraged ETF's are typically only good as a short term trade if the buyer thinks they can predict a near term direction.   But, if wrong and the direction goes the other way, the futures decay has a detrimental effect on the rate of decline in etf share value.  Yes, double etf's are a gamble on direction.  

One such 2X  Bull etf  on gold is UGL.  

I don't make recommendations on this site and recognize every bull case may have an equally strong bear case.  One such bear case is to look at the historical chart and a bear would say -  hey buddy,  already ran!   But a counter argument is a LOT of things have already run and if inflation continues at historical rates with energy costs a big driver - gold and silver may just be ready for a breakout run higher.  Because I am leaning to a notion that  a breakout "may be " coming, I have listed some bull ETF's. However, these are all just theories and any of our theory's about future performance  remain to be proven or disproven over time. Sometimes it's more prudent to just watch and see from the sidelines with dry powder.  In testing any such bull or bear view, I would say that the word "some" comes to mind whist maintaining dry powder and remaining watchful. Or just stay out and go to work or for a walk, whatever floats your boat. I close this post with a cautionary note to myself.  Timing a market is a gamble and can feel like a fool's game gone bad with "too much" or even "any".

So some may wonder at this point, what is Spider Jones saying and doing here???

In full disclosure , Spider Jones is holding  "some"  GLD and SLV at present and watching and pondering the leveraged gold etf.   He may or may not jump in or out some or none at anytime and maybe on a dip.  

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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A few Market watch notes and American dismay over "far left controllers"

  

Market Talk
 

The events in the country and world since the election have not been fun to watch  for an independent voter. I could list them here, but why bother? If you are not aware of what's happening, it's your fault. Yes, the market has surged and it's responding to the specter of massive spending bills that have a socialist agenda under the guise of "infrastructure".

Since the democrats have taken control, inflation is rising rapidly.  Market predictions in a topsy-turvy world seems like a fool's game, so I will sit that game out.

 

On the political front, this is a typical tweet showing dismay by more Americans giving it a thumbs up.

"Biden is intentionally relocating migrant families to Florida, and several other “Red” states, ahead of passage of the “Green New Deal” bill, knowing the amnesty provisions will likely provide Democrats enough new votes to turn those States “Blue” and effectively negate the likelihood of an anticipated “Red Wave” in next year’s mid-term elections."

 

Does that disturb you?  Biden  campaigned as a moderate saying he is NOT like socialist Bernie Sanders. Oh Really now? Coulda fooled many - Oh yea he did .  fool you once - shame on them. Fool you twice? shame on YOU.

Stock Talk

I will not venture any stock suggestions but say I am watching a few ETF's in Gold and silver like GLD, SLV  and perhaps an ETF in the gold miners that I won't name here due to inherent risk.  I can't venture a suggestion because with the market at all time highs, I won't be the one to pump anything and say buy, buy, buy - like the TV guys may do. The market leaves me circumspect.

Ford and GM may be a good stocks to watch but the supply chain on semiconductor chips made in Taiwan that they need to complete many of the options is still challenged.  Maybe US steel X is worth watching as an infrastructure stock.  

In biotechs , I am watching Inovio (INO) stock again. So far I have had three shots of C 19 immunization by Pfizer and I have not had Corona.  (I prefer the original name Corona over Covid).  But the mRNA shots are not lasting in protection.  There is early evidence that the Inovio vaccine INO4800 may provide longer lasting T cell immunization.  Likewise, the Vaxart oral pill may do similar.  But our FDA seems to favor  big pharma and throws roadblocks at others.  It has been reported that Inovio is proceeding in Phase 3 testing South America. I was once watching Sorrento but for some reason, they just can't seem to get off the mark to delivering.  That really could go for all three of the above but none the less, they bear watching from time to time.  If they ever do deliver a marketable product to turn the corner to profitability the market could respond.  Until then, I'm just watching from time to time.  If  they do not deliver, the stocks will languish and then they typically dilute shares to stay in business.  That is NOT good for retail shareholders.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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