Watch SEED: back of envelope projections

SEED from China announced approval of a genetically engineered Corn seed for feedstock that is an enhanced phosphorus producing corn.

SEED is now the Monsanto of China? The market likes it as SEED has doubled today in share value. watch SEED.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Origin-Agritech-Announces-bw-2754575064.html?x=0&.v=1
__

I just ran some interesting numbers and estimates. Last year, China reports they produced about 156 Million tons of Corn. Two thirds of that is about what China uses for feedstock.
2/3 x 156 M Tons = 104 M tons.

Let's assume that SEED could take about 30 % of that market the first year.

That's .30 x 104 M = 31 M tons

I will assume that each ton of corn uses about $10 worth of seed. So the potential revenue market for SEED's corn seeds are:
$10 X 31 M = $ 310 M per year.

I will assume that 60 % of that could be earnings.

about : .60 x $ 310 M = $186 M.

SEED reports 22 M shares outstanding.

Projected eps = $ 186 M/ 22 M = $8.45 eps.

Use a PE of 20, Monsanto's is 21.

Projected SEED share price: $ 8.45 x 20 = $ 169 per share

Conclusion: even with today's run with SEED @ about $10 ? (!)/
__
ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
___

Market Talk : Hello From Bear valley

Yesterday, I temporarily moved off of warrior mountain for all stocks except ONE, moving to the valley where the bears roar. Recall that we held our own and did fairly well - finding biotech stocks that offer various benefits to the world either now or in the future. But we also found that they were trading vehicles for too many with short hedge witches about them manipulating . Patience paid off in a few but too much manipulation, too many games - and add that the companies tend to dilute shares on a regular basis just when a run in imminent. We pick our battles carefully here, over time.

For me? - I found only one stock - the shot of hope stock- ONTY- that is so undervalued that I am willing to hold long through the market correction I see coming. Yep, I stay long on ONTY . Sleep lil' market sleep - suits me fine. ONTY should not be in the 4's, it should be about $32 right now in my book.

If interested why, scroll down a few posts and read about it.

But as to the overall market? I am fully aware that many pundits are predicting higher territory in the markets. But for the stocks I follow as well as the dow or overall S&P ? I can only call em as I see em here and to me? I will lay it out right here .

My view is the Dow flat and going lower, before heading higher. I am aware that predicting market timing is as close to a fools game. Call me a fool, I don't care. Why do I even bother predicting market direction? I donno, maybe it's fun to lay out a prediction for my time capsule..

It's hard to say goodbye. There are so many bulls now in the market thinking it's not gonna happen , a correction. I am going to call it out right here n now. I think we are very vulnearble to a market correction of at least 300 to 600 points on the Dow.




The market needs some steam let off because folks- things are just not that great. The economy is about to enter another dip and unemployment is well over 17% in some areas of the country. "Green jobs" can't fill the void and it's taking too long.

Commercial real estate concerns are in trouble. There are firms that bought high rises at the peak of the market and used low rent housing incentives. But they intended to convert to high end condos and kick the low rent people out after the obligatory time limit. Now that the market busted they are stuck and can't make the mortgage payments. Is this going to mushroom into the next crisis? beats me, but I am pointing this out as one of the coming factors.

Then there are these wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Ya know I could go on and on listing and lamenting all the problems but this is about the market and stocks. Add it all up between outside influences, unemployment, credit problems, trade imbalances and the quagmire of war - My view is that the market is due for a correction that could take the Dow to about 9,800...



In every projection, I give due to the other side of the coin. That is - the market is a machine. The bulls look at the current situations and replies hey - we have already corrected and what about this n that ? To those that maintain that view - I say "good luck". I took precautions and went to dry powder.

I will hunker down with Dry powder and some in one stock - ONTY.

Now don't be fooled. I am not predicting market Armageddon. I am saying some steam needs to blow off and I do predict about a 600 point fade on the Dow. Things are not that great folks.

After then- I may move out of my cabin in the valley of the bears. For now...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCYRPJRHs9s&feature=related

Positions:

One Stock - ONTY

Dry Powder

___
ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
___

"Reconstruction - It will be so " - ONE stock for me

Market talk..

I watch many stocks and the market too. This I believe. The market is tired. It's a grind. The hedge witches are all about and hold a grip on many stocks.

I choose just one stock to be long where the hedgies don't stand a chance - at least in my future telescope and that is -- ONTY.

The LIFE curve will work to our advantage. When a few Phase 3 "catalsyts of hope" step up and walk with more like Gary - for their comrades in the fight- watch out.

This stock, ONTY may see sudden mass awareness like no other stock- EVER.

For now? I leave the rest behind -ALL stocks- except for one.

Why?

Yesterday, I posted I sold ALL stocks except for one - ONTY. You may think me a fool, I don't care. I took the gain in a tough grinding market on a few issues that I think have promise. But there are few, if any, stocks in the entire market that can come close to matching what we stumbled upon with one stock, right under the market's nose- ONTY.

Sleep market fools sleep. It's all opportunity to me.

Value estimate on just Stimuvax lung success to ONTY?

===> ($150M/32M) x 70pe = $328 per ONTY share

Stimuvax is now in the 3rd Year of global Phase 3 lung cancer trials. A lot of focus by some is on the death curve - that is the gauge that apparently is being used to determine when they will open "the cards" on the people that have passed away to determine if they were receiving a placebo or Stimuvax. One third of the quiet soldiers are getting placebo. I dont like that, but it is what is. I screamed and yelled at the FDA in emails and postings - but it's a brick wall- the system. I even proposed a better way for future trials. Same thing - they are a brick wall of "due process" and it is what it is.

But let's, for once- think of this from the other side of the curve - The life side.

By now, at this very moment- there may be hundreds of people that are past their critical 15th month milestone. That is a key month to survive because if they get that far, their survival chance increases even more. For those being helped by Stimuvax- there may well be many (right now!) that are suddenly realizing something is different. They are feeling better not worse. Things are changing. Some could even see spontaneous remission - No signs there. More like Gary from Phase 2.

http://watch.ctv.ca/news/latest/cancer-vaccine/#clip194521

This is my belief.. and I back this up with Merck KGaA's recent confidence. Now just why are they so confident? Perhaps because trial leads know how many patients are enrolled and exactly how much Stimuvax is going out. They would then know how long people are living because they get an injection every six weeks. The more they supply, the longer people are living. Conversely, would not that also apply to the supply of placebo serum?

Also there are the reports from "the grapevine" (the clinics) that people are doing well, better than expected?

More people are suddenly awakening to a second chance to FIGHT, to live... an ace in the hole - with the shot of hope every six weeks...

On this site we try to be 3 month market look ahead scouts and to read the signs.

oh look- Merck KGaA also recently started an entire new Phase 3 trial for treating the next leading cause of cancer Unow what- Breast cancer. Do you think they know something? I do.

__

Stock watchers...

I have illustrated why ONTY should be at LEAST 1/10 the value of Stimuvax success to ONTY for treating lung cancer. I estimate $328 a share.

So in my book- ONTY should be AT least fair market value of $32 a share RIGHT now.

Market awareness does not happen overnight. It takes a catalyst. There could be many potential "catalysts" waking up today with newfound fight in them.

Stimuvax - Help the immune system trained t-cells to FIGHT cancer "

Reconstruct the body. reconstruct the mind. reconstruct the spirt.. leave the rest behind with .... NEW HOPE!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzXMFdvJ6Tk&feature=related

Take a look at his eyes after he walks the line of suffering to get some RESPECT.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6VBdu_ur48&feature=related

That's gonna be Stimuvax suvivors-- That's gonna be ONTY longs too. It will be so.
__
ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
___

ONE stock

That's it. Call me a market bear for now.

Yesterday, the President lamented that he is worried about a double dip recession. How about this one ? What's this double dip stuff?

I don't think this recession ever ended and will be longer than anticipated.

The jobless rate tells the story. WE wanted to ignore it for awhile but we can't. yeah OK the market is a machine it doesn't care. we'll see.

In the market -- Tonight, Dell reported less than expected eps. It's dumping as I type this. And this - For the most part, since September many of the stocks that have really good stories - just are not moving past their glass ceiling. The hedge shorts are all over them like a bad rash. It was hard to win. We managed to trade BCRX and SVA a few times for a nice gain. But VVUS was a little hurtful with that manipulation. NXG in gold did well. NXG may see higher. It could double. I don't care. Why? Because when a corection happens, almost everything fades with the tide, even gold mining stocks/ I feel it/. I think it's gonna happen - a correction.

I think it's time to reset the page. Get into more cash as dry powder for a awhile.

I am staying long ONE stock- ONTY. The numbers are too staggering, the impact too positive and powerful on the development remnants and royalties to come on at least 10 % of the Stimuvax revenue stream if Merck KgaA gains full approval. In the meantime Phase 3 lung cancer and Phase 3 Breast cancer trials are enrolling 1,322 and 900 patients, in each respective trial. So there ya have it. my new take - One stock ONTY - buy and stay long all the way is my way.

Call me a market bear for now at least . I see that the market is tired. I know I am. The market is a grind and can't go higher - so it's probably gonna go lower.

I am hunkered down on Bear mountain with my ONTY shares and some dry powder. I am watching and may consider a short etf but only as "traders".

There is just ONE stock for me at this juncture. I fully believe that ONTY is going to see a new phase of awareness . Sleep lil market sleep (for now) because that is one thing to me - the opportunity of some. some here , some there.

The shot of hope - LIFE - will be even BETTER than GOLD in my future telescope..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzXMFdvJ6Tk&feature=related

For me:
One stock ===> ONTY

Awakenings:


(Stimuvax lung success to ONTY)
ONTY ==> ($150M/32M) x 70 pe = $328 per share ..

ONTY should be AT least $32 / share RIGHT NOW.

the rest?

Dry powder


all the others? you can have em for now.
(I may even go market short with a pinch of an etf or two, as a trade only)
_
ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
___

sentiment check- ONTY and Dry powder

This morning, I have to "check" my sentiment on certain issues. Is this "emotional"? perhaps, I am no computer, I am a human "bean". I have stated here right up front that I have a certain disregard for the the bull crappers of this market like Goldman Sachs that all the BS'ers on Cnbc "adore". I recall how their analysts pumped up the idea that oil was going to $200 a brl. I recall how the oil traders in the pits shrieked with joy that an oil rig had caught fire somewhere. Pure manipulation. And that was one of the drivers that broke the back of the economy in 2008. Sure there were other factors , but that oil pumping day after day really contributed. And WHO started it all or at least fueled the fire? Goldman Sachs and then Cnbc fanned the flames day after day. Then there was their nightly guy up there pumping oil oil oil every night . Meanwhile, the tankers were busting at the seams with an oil glut that nobody knew about. I called it out at the time- said Enough! it was all - pure n simple manipulation and BS.

Market talk..

So fast forward to today. When I think about Goldman Sachs CEO saying "sorry"- it sets me off. Last week he was joking they do "God's work". Yeah right. Well, now that I got that off my chest - time to move on. It is what it is. (Sheesh I need a run or a ride on my Honda or somethin).

Stock Talk...

What you get here are the real time thoughts of a market warrior, a trader and investor. I have mentioned before that I believe there is only ONE stock that is so undervalued on staggering potential and progress to that potential - worth going long all the way. You know what that stock is.. the shot of hope stock- ONTY.

Remember last night when I mused about Gold? Today after sleeping on it, I feel that Gold may be due for a pullback on trader's profit taking. So how to play that in NXG's case? Well, the chart says that it is at it's upper range. There is a good chance that it could breakout to the 4's but then there is an equal chance it could fade back some. I am trading some over -accumulated NXG shares to conserve more dry powder as yes - today the $ is making a slight comeback. I am just playing the jigs n jives of the market on Gold now, like everyone else.

So here is what you should know about me. Over the past 5 years - I have NEVER lost on my mining issues. I have pulled out at the right time, sometimes a little early- but I want to maintain my personal record on mining. I still think Gold is a good bet, but I am now going to daytrader mode on mining because that's the way the market is. I roll with it.

So, I am now thinking about the other issues I hold.

VVUS- sheesh yesterday was a BIG disappointment. I think some large hedge fund is manipulaing the crap out of VVUS. It seems like some stocks you just can't win- and for me VVUS is one. I am out again. I have no patience for the manipulation going on there. I know that's what they want but I will fight where I can win and I believe the winning position is --- ONTY.

SGMO- Yesterday the progress was leaked via a students report on the hiv trial. They had one case where they showed low viral loads past a month , but then they returned. whatever they are doing? may be good but so far it does not look permanent. Again, it's a long term story and manipulation rules the day. I am out of SGMO at break even.

Again - One stock is king here in my view and that is ONTY.

For me, it is time for a break and a reset - to clear the head. I think people need to take stock in themselves and do what you need to do to improve every day. I will post again when I see something worth investing in besides the most undervalued stock in the entire market - ONTY.

Well, there are some thoughts this morning. stay tuned. I may post on other stocks that I watch but I am not buying them either.

For me?

some ONTY and dry powder.

others? .. this market has a bad feel about it to me right now.
time for that run.

__
ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
___

Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein says "sorry" and Other Stock talk

Commentary:

Lloyd Blankfein apologized today for some of his companies "actions". ya know I could go on and on about this, but I will keep it brief. Back in 2008, I believe they made billions by manipulating markets and being short. Anybody who may have been long in a stock that they downgraded and then bear raided knows what I mean - they play dirty - period.

Then there is the story about how one day they are a hedge fund and the next day suddenly Goldman is "a bank" eligible for tarp money that they claimed they did not need. Yeah RIGHT.

You add it all up and it leaves a bad taste, 'nuff said.

___

Market Talk:

Today was kind of a rough day. No major moves but it seemed like the hedge witches are back playing again. This morning, VVUS had a very interesting cc to update the Phase 3 trials of Avanafil a new ED drug. The results show that it could easily be on the path to being better than Viagra in action and safety. Between VVUS's prospects of Qnexa weight loss drug and Avanafil, VVUS is on a very promising path to having TWO blockbusters. Well, the stock should have normally responded with a nicer close but during the day - the volume was high yet it seemed under pressure. I have seen this many times, but VVUS has the signs of some nasty hedge witches about it. YOU can usually count on the typical Cnbc chatter heads to come out and yap about it that's what they do. That's another sign that the hedge witches are at play. Sometimes it seems like they work in unison. Sometimes I wonder if the biggest hedge witch , Goldman Sachs is playing games on these small and mid cap issues. Well, the good stocks eventually break their nasty grip by performance.

I believe the short based hedge witches are all about. But , over time, even they can be flushed out.

I once held a stock China Medical in the teens for months. It had a hedge witch/ You can tell the ones, they often get the typical bashers on the message boards disguised as disgruntled longs or short bashers. Well it eventually broke the grip as their HIFU machines were selling and performing well. CMED went to the upper 30's before I bailed and then the 40's. They sold their HIFU division and are now into diagnostics and it's in the teens. I am not suggesting CMED now, but I wanted to use it as an example of how a hedge witch grip can be broken by being patient.

I get some emails . Some are about when you should buy and sell a stock like say - NXG. All I can offer is that everybody is different in situation. Me? I am holding because I believe we are entering new times like we have never seen before.. I am not saying this is Armageddon or anything. But I could see period where we have little to moderate real inflation (in this country, but don't leave the US !) and yet gold could stay above $1100 per Oz and possibly trend much higher. There is now a different world view trending on gold vs currency. The threat of the IMF dumping gold on the world is kind of whisked away when countries like India are buying 200 Tons of Gold; and China is reported to be building positions in raw gold. Now they are in competition with new etf's that are taking possession of gold reserves.

NXG: Well all of that is a little esoteric to this one little off the radar - Gold and copper mining issue, NXG. I just don't see much risk holding NXG and it seems more likely to see higher 4's and 5's in this climate. I can't worry about it falling back to the 2's. If it did, I'd probably buy more with dry powder. They already had their stock offering and got about $100 Mil in cash, so that risk is off the table. I am looking forward not backwards on NXG and holding. This climate could see a stock like NXG double and if Gold goes to $1500 in 2010 like many are starting to see - NXG may see double digits.

But here is something-- don't wait for me to ring a bell on your situation. In the market - nobody rings a bell. If you have 1,000 shares and are sitting on a $500 profit and you really "need" that money? who am I to say to don't sell to you? and that goes for ANY stock. All I can say is that I added some nxg the other day at $3.12 and I am going long on NXG. I think it could double.

ONTY: You can read almost any post here and see why I believe ONTY fair market value is $32 per share Right now, today - as we wait. So I got some emails to put numbers on the picture. I have already gone through the back on envelope and how I get $328 a share just on Stimuvax royalties for treating lung cancer as Merck KGaA proceeds into FDA approval. Here is an updated estimate of how sudden new market awareness could play out in terms of ONTY share value...

I put in some projected ONTY share values after we get an awakening catalyst. For the very near term a ONTY long just endures the ignorants. They will clamor to join us later and chase it after the hoopla on the shot of hope- of that I am convinced .

yes, it may take a catalyst. The catalyst I see in my viewfinder is the Phase 3 patients themselves who may well be suddenly realizing - something is different.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzXMFdvJ6Tk&feature=related


Well, I have just touched the surface on one compound that ONTY is involved with/ There are others,

BGLP-40, PX866, PX478, PX12 are others.

The first two are hot and anything can happen.

Stay aware!

__
ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
___

Jones: Why ONTY ?- "Awakenings"

A profound phase of awareness is approaching about the shot of hope. This awareness will become apparent in due time, but it is not far off. I will illustrate rather than put it into words. Some will "get it". Some won't. If you want to try to get what I am saying here - YOU must read every word of this post and click on every link.

First, watch this video. I have often posted that it represents the suffering of the ONTY long for having their stock manipulated and under recognized to the staggering potential of what we believe is to come. But today, in the meaning of "awareness" - the ones walking the lines are not the shareholders. They are the quiet soldiers themselves in the fight of "the hidden war" .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6VBdu_ur48&feature=related

ONTY and Merck Kg longs know that when the Stimuvax phase 2 survivors join the newly aware phase 3 survivors - watch out - it won't be "contained". Awakenings may well be unlike any sudden mass awareness in the history of the stock market. An awakening that those "counted out" actually have a "second chance" is too powerful to be stopped and it is coming soon. LOOK at the above Chart I have prepared for you. Do you believe in fate? There is a profound reason you are reading this right now!

http://watch.ctv.ca/news/latest/cancer-vaccine/#clip194521

"Nothin there "- after SIX YEARS!

We have angels here on this one - this I believe. But it not Blind belief. Merck KgAA's scientists and "chart 44" has our backs...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CbAjj80NIM


watch that ONTY on the shot of hope.

The right to fight is a powerful force to be contended with.

And this- do you know the reason why? So all people who suffer have more time to know better - the real shot of hope: the prince of peace.

This I believe...

Stock watchers: Be in "some" ONTY if you can swing it. I give it a better than a 70 % chance of success for some staggering numbers and impact.

Awakenings are coming.

__
ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
___