Market Talk
The market seems to be dwelling on the prospect of prolonged "status quo" of interest rates not being lowered until September or even later, if at all. The Fed needs to fight inflation and at later time, ease borrowing interest rates.
The status quo of back and forth "measured" geopolitical war, strife and challenges from our adversaries, if not enemies.
Stock Talk
About a month ago, we started looking at Gold demand Gold was bouncing around 2K an ounce. Since then the etf - GLD has risen from around the $200 mark to $215 as of this note. It had gone as high as near $224. While there are several reasons why Gold could go much higher, the near term dip makes one wonder if Gold will consolidate even further at a lower level until the next spin cycle. Why should it? To venture a guess, perhaps the same ones in Russia that are hoarding gold are starting to think about selling gold to pay for Putin's war machine? Perhaps the traders are just taking profits. As a small retail trader and investor, we may feel powerless to know exactly but watching a gain dwindle down is no fun. Some may choose to take the gain in some or all and step aside for awhile..
While the above speaks to the higher priced GLD, perhaps holding a Gold miner like Kinross Gold (KGC) in the 6's is a way to stay long in the gold sector.
Some may also choose trading some of the oil stocks before the earnings reports. Some analysts project a year over year decline in some co earnings, perhaps due to lower Nat gas prices. Share prices have not gotten over a hump after a fairly nice run. Is that a sign of future share price sluggishness and a coming dip? I don't know for sure, do you?
On another front, crypto - the bitcoin halving happened on Friday. As far as crypto goes, it seems like it was a non-event. Perhaps even a sell the news is happening. Could bitcoin levels be subject to selling pressure in the near ? Maybe its time to take a gain on IBIT before too many traders get the notion. Something, actually anything, is only worth what the masses will pay and perceptions can be catchy.
In making buy/ sell decisions we can say only hindsight is an exact science. But taking a gain in some may be better than watching it dwindle down. Suggest to trade or invest according to your own comfort level, logic and intuition. Nothing wrong with conserving dry powder when things start looking/ feeling more dicey with regards to share price levels.
In all - we use the word maybe "some", not "too much"
and play it accordingly. Remember never get arrogant in our various
notions because things do change in the market and individual stocks are
subject to many factors outside of our control.. So we try to -stay aware.
For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time. But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things. If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor. With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post.
Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.
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