Thursday, February 2, 2012

Market Talk and "Known Unknowns".

Market Talk:

Hello February. Now that you are here I can only say that there are knowns and unknowns...

"There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know."

... Donald Rumsfeld

Seems similar to another quote I heard somewhere on the street of hard knocks ...

"If you were half as smart as you think you are , You'd be twice as smart as you are right now".

Well with these odd quotes I will proceed into stock talk..

Stock talk:

I am watching a few stocks and will offer my opinion on if they are good trades or not.

ONTY, This is a long stock I am in for years n tears since BIOM days. Stimuvax is licensed to Merck KGaA and it's now in the 6th year of the global phase 3 lung cancer trial called "START". Anybody who reads me here knows I am long some ONTY. The key decision point for the Interim look of the "events" (fighters that passed away either on Stimuvax or placebo) is approaching soon. Although there are people that insist they "know" what the outcome is gonna be one way or another, put me in the "I donno" category. I admit don't know , I HOPE. I look at the Phase II data and think the large Phase 3 trial  has a fair to pretty good chance of doing something NEVER done before against the leading cause of cancer death in the world.

So I hope, until we know.  When/ if we get the words "it works" either from the chief of the large Phama partner Merck KGaA  or ONTY's  Kirkman then  I will celebrate with MANY on the LIFE of the matter and what it may mean for all the future fighters of lung cancer and possibly other forms as well.  But until then? I stay tempered on the Mountain path.  Also the fly on the wall? Earlier today, I was a little harsh about FlyontheWall reporting stuff and said they are BS. What I really meant is that the Fly reports high volume activity and they sometimes assign a reason, even if it's a rumor. Often these are  false rumors which have the effect of getting people all excited in a buying frenzy and it serves as a setup for the shorts to enter into large short positions  and then bash in a coordinated way, followed by bear raids on a stock.  That's what happened in ONTY's run to the 11's before.   Well, Fly on the Wall may not be responsibe  for the initial volume, but  people start repeating rumors and the action can get frenzied.  All I'm saying is if they post something is a rumor, take it for what it's worth.  It likely may or may not be the actual truth of the matter. Yup, call it more known unknowns, thank you Donald.

Other stocks of interest.

I watch many stocks, some I get right , some not.  Some are trades some are buy and stick around to see if the long thesis works out. For example, I was watching and trading Western Refinery (WNR) and traded it for a small gain, now only to see it breaking out moving higher.  I will watch that one maybe on a pullback may buy in some.

Then there is the shipping sector.  I picked one stock that earned my respect in the downturn.  They still have my respect, but I sold with a small gain.  There are a lot of growing unknowns in the shipping sector.  One is how these giant sized ships being built will affect the sector.  It seems crazy to me as to why they would build giant ships that require ports to dredge deep gaps in the river beds.  Yes, the Panama canal is being widened. So what. The shipping sector's Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has me concerned . I'm out for now and will watch the sector on the sidelines. There's those known unknowns again.

Now back to Biotech, ACHN has the Protease Inhibitor (PI) reported to show very favorabe results in treating Hep C strains in albeit early trial.  It's not a "nuc" compound,  it's a PI.  BUT those with Hep C virus may not care if they can get treated and have an excellent prognosis for a CURE, even if a course of interferon goes with it.   The unknown is :  Is large Pharma thinking like that too?  I am gonna stick around awhile in some ACHN to see what happens. You may recall I traded IDIX for a 50% gain in about a week awhile back?  Sometimes I do get it right, eh?

Back to the energy sector,  Two stocks of note are again WNR in refinering and WPRT as an engine company in the growing hype of using Natural gas for transportation of the future.  Both have run well.  WNR has improving fundamentals in an old industry.  WPRT has bad fundamentals but a positive projected revenues and hyped up growth story.  Will WPRT grow into it's lofty share level pumped up by the newsletter guys and Cramer? beats me.  I'm gonna watch these known unknows awhile, maybe pull the trigger on some on a dip, maybe not.  

Of all the above, I am most  interested in what will  happen to ONTY from the anticipated  outcome in the the dmc's Stimuvax Interim Analysis (IA) of the 529 events in the START lung cancer trial.  Yesterday, we saw an 11% spike in the share price and volume.  Coupled with a similar spike in Merck KGaA on the Frankfurt Germany market may or may not be a positive sign on Stimuvax.

But those that say they know 100% for sure,  one way or another, until the readout is officially announced - are just plain pissin' into the wind in my opinion.

I'll stay long with some ONTY and my hope and WAIT on the Mountain path.

This site is my opinion and not buy/sell advice.   I may  trade into or out of any stock at any time.

Maybe we are just fighting unseen dark forces like devils or maybe we are  in the arms of angels. "I donno".

Thank you.
ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.