Market Talk
The backdrop of geopolitical strife and warfare is taking a front seat to the market. Defense , Oil and Gold were growing hot sectors without the attack on Israel on Oct 7. But since then the growing strife came to a head last night with Israel doing a measured strike on an airbase in Iran. The message to the mullah's in Iran is the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) can reach out and touch Iran in ways that will take a toll if Iran keeps up attacks. The war pundits seem to think that neither side wants to take things to full scale war but prefer measured responses that often result in attacks.
Stock Talk
We've enjoyed a fairly nice run on some American oil and defense and gold. There are prospects of prolonged higher interest without a rate cut, now projected no earlier than September.
Exactly how the geopolitical strategies play out on the market can seem hazy. BUT, there are some facts to consider. The World's Banks and countries like China and Russia are both mining and storing and buying GOLD. This is, in part, to show up the US dollar as basis of world trade. Our own government may not be helping to counter the attack on the US dollar with their liberal spending in areas that seem counter to American's own citizens that pay taxes.
Still,
some stocks or etf's to watch that have enjoyed recent gains are
American oil related, defense and Gold. There
are reasons to say that these areas may continue a run. However, things
don't always go straight up. They often zig zag and meander. Traders
will take some gains and cut some losses in a no man's land market.
The Fed not lowering interest rates could stem the Gold to US dollar imbalance but Gold seems to be climbing to all time highs where some say the $3000 mark for Gold may not be as far off as the past action suggested . On the other hand there is nothing wrong with managing a gain into some dry powder.
Bitcoin
is traded into scary dips leaving the question of why. One report is
that the miners are selling some reserves before the halving event. Many
pundits see higher bitcoin after the halving but reality and notions
can subject to divergence in the future. History of bitcoin halving
events point to higher bitcoin coming long term. BUT many pundits will
not even venture a guess on bitcoin value. Ethereum is catching
interest with future etf's in the making. This is not an all in kind of
approach but maybe some here some there in small , doses. The bitcoin halving event is projected to happen soon.
Some stocks and etf's and crypto to Watch:
Raytheon (RTX) seems to be firing on all fronts just over "par" $100 and looking like it wants to fly higher.
Devon Energy (DVN)
Gold etf's: GLD and GLDM
Silver etf SLV
Gold Miner: Kinross Gold (KGC) , currently just under $7 but "may be" a coming breakout stock on Gold's rising and production runs.
Others to watch:
Bitcoin etf 's : IBIT and EZBC
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH)
If
interested, scroll back a few posts for more coverage on any of the
above topics. In all - we use the word maybe "some", not "too much"
and play it accordingly. Remember never get arrogant in our various
notions because things do change in the market and individual stocks are
subject to many factors outside of our control.. So we try to -stay aware.
For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time. But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things. If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor. With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post.
Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.
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