There are also what we now see as what I call "2nd tier" Covid 19 companies because they are not the first on the scene. These are the lower cap stocks that I have been watching as they go about generally unnoticed in their goals to bring possibly "next generation" vaccines and new antibody treatments through the FDA process and to market.
As the future unfolds, can we expect the "powers that be" try to maintain Pfizer and Moderna hold on the vaccine space, even if other's are proven to be superior? For example if these mRNA vaccines prove out to be temporary and short lived will the powers continue to throw roadblocks and monkey wrenches at possibly superior vaccines and antibody treatments of companies such Inovio, Sorrento and Vaxart ? These have high institutional interest indicating promise as well heavy shorting, with bears hoping for the opposite.
In a previous post I predicted correctly that a feeling of overcome by events "obe" would happen to these stocks. As such we are seeing recent lackluster share price performance. The "it's gonna be awhile" feeling is there. We see government involvement in relatively small darpa awards (as compared to the $ billons to others). I will now share my view on how I will handle this.
The past year has proven two things to me on INO, SRNE and VXRT:
- These are trading stocks until proven otherwise. They have been joyfully praised and risen at times with positive sentiment, only to be whip-lashed down unmercifully "to longs", especially to those in too deep. In this "wait n see", I will hold some shares but not enough to hurt bad if things don't work out.
- Each company has long attributes to stay long in a small core position.
INO - S. Korea ordered C19 vaccine from other companies and that was discouraging to this observer. INO has a promising pipeline to treat several forms of cancer with their DNA treatments intended to train antibody and fighter t-cells of the immune system to enter and destroy cancer cells. my view - I hold "some" shares (not enough to get hurt) set n' forget for awhile. It seems like it's gonna be awhile but the bottom may be in or near. I won't be surprised if it fades to 8 ish in the meantime.
SRNE - has made some compelling progress in creating powerful antibody responses in animals to the C19 virus. Sorrento now has backing of Darpa with a $34 M award to rapidly pursue antibody shots like the STI 2020 and Covi-Drops nasal drops that could hopefully allow physicians to prescribe at home treatments to the ill circumventing the over crowding of hospitals. Today, US hospitalizations exceed 110,000 C19 patients. That's a lot of damage caused by C19.
I hold some SRNE, waiting on an update but if the stock fades some I don't have too much that I'm gonna get hurt.
VXRT - The oral vaccine possibility that could make it so simple to vaccinate many has much appeal. It has shown to create immune responses in golden hamsters and is now in the Phase - 1 clinical trial with humans. I hold some and offer the following observations.
As Pfizer rolled out initial vaccine in the UK and US, many vaccine stocks faded. But VXRT was holding up fairly well in the 7's and 8's. why?
Is it possible that the drawbacks of cold chain requirements of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are becoming more daunting than many thought. If they lose super cooling they become ineffective. Other countries are watching.
If the vaccine pill of Vaxart VXA-CoV2-1 proves safe and effective in an enteric coated pill, it would be a major influence in other countries. The FDA process seems too cumbersome and mired with the politics, process and influence of big Pharma to get the Vaxart oral vaccine in US anytime soon.
But, I will postulate the notion that other countries may want it sooner. And actually pre-order Vaxart's pills on partial data from the clinical trials. Indeed we see a group planning to explore potential use in Maylasia. What about some countries in Africa?
Such an event would be a huge happening and catalyst to propel VXRT stock higher.
Now would I sit around waiting for other countries to pre order Vaxart oral vaccine? No. But I will hold some VXRT stock without worry because it's just "some" . As time goes on and dips happen, all things being equal, I may just add more VXRT.
Some may ask where has an oral vaccine ever been used? answer - Polio.
I can see some advantages of the Vaxart pill treating C19. Some proponents speculate that it may create immunity better than others because it uses the mucus system of the small bowel and emboldens the entire mucus system where C19 attacks.
If interested, read it yourself on the Vaxart web site.
https://vaxart.com/platform-advantages/
"Vaxart oral recombinant vaccines are formulated as tablets that are enterically coated for efficient delivery to the small bowel. The enteric coating protects the active ingredient from the acidic environment in the stomach."
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another view of Vaxart from the Motely fool.
https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/vaccines/vaxart-covid-19-oral-vaccine
Keith Speights, the Motely Fool... "One I think you and I have spoken about before -- Vaxart (NASDAQ:VXRT). Vaxart has an early-stage oral tablet. The idea of having a vaccine that you just pop a pill, so to speak, instead of getting stuck with a needle, that would be quite intriguing. Very low market cap there -- below $1 billion. Again, it's early stage, but if they're successful, Vaxart could really take off."
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Bottom Line Conclusions
In the 2nd tier or "next generation" pharma companies, I'm holding "some" of INO, SRNE and VXRT. Some, not too much.
VXRT may have an interesting surprise catalyst because the appeal of an easy to ship and swallow vaccine for C19 protection would be a game changer. Perhaps other countries with C19 outbreaks will say "good enough for us and bring it on!".
With today's print of VXRT in the 7ish range, there may be some time to play it cool and maybe buy "some" on dips if the view gets rosy.
and dry $ powder.
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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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