A few musings on the World, The economy AND the future, as of TODAY . - and some "Stock Talk".

 

Market Talk

Today's stock market is a conundrum. It is basically a balance between various looks into of the future, perhaps in about a six-month time outlook.  Trying to foresee or predict can be like looking into parallel universes with different outcomes in each world.

For example, some analysts say we are in a recession right now having had two negative quarters of GDP.  This has always been the definition of a recession.  However, the ruling democrats are masters at changing words to meet the impression they want to portray. In short, political motives are questionable.   In calling the current situation, I was leaning to stagflation where inflation increases, and yet economic growth slows.  I think the economy may be headed into stagflation.  However, recently unemployment has fallen and inflation has slightly subsided making the stock market bulls feel that the Federal reserve may lighten up on interest rate hikes.  So far, the Fed seems determined to continue rate hiking to slow the economy enough to bring down still high inflation. 

So why is unemployment recently decreasing?  People are finally taking lower paying jobs to try to survive the higher prices everywhere. Energy costs being passed on to the consumer is one major cause.  Greed and need are other reasons.  But recently, fuel prices, although high, have slightly subsided.  This is because the economy is being slowed as is the goal of the Federal reserve.  

The collective market has been taking what they like to think of as "green shoots" of positivity as taking the indices higher.   I remain skeptical because when you look at some big tech companies, we see huge layoffs in the making.  For example, Amazon is laying off thousands from the tech division of Alexa.  Ford is another laying off thousands because they are trying to save for the coming slowdown and move to electric vehicles.  The reader may ask where is Ford moving?  Ford is moving from Ohio to Mexico! Should Americans be outraged?  Ford is laying off THOUSANDS of Americans and taking the jobs to other countries!

And yet they expect Americans to buy Fords?   One could ask, why don't the millions of migrants trekking through Mexico to breach into the US just stay in Mexico to assume the jobs that our industry is moving there? 

So many more examples exist of what would be considered high tech coding and manager jobs being eliminated as in twitter's case. They are making those remaining WORK harder. This will lead to discontentment in the work force.

As the Federal reserve continues to raise interest rates what is going to happen to construction jobs?  So just WHO is going to be able to afford buy these Ford ev's made outside of America? Yea, the Dems will offer more incentives, creating more inflation and forcing the Fed to raise rates higher, yet causing a further slowdown in America.  Are you starting to see a pattern?  The Dems seem to have an unbalanced agenda on many policies to the detriment of America. 

The impact of the Russian aggression on the Ukraine hits hard.  The "Putin Russians" involved in supporting this unjust war and crime on humanity are either evil or misguided, or both. The pain being inflicted on both families of dead Russian soldiers that were drafted and Ukrainian defenders AND Ukraine civilians is horrible.

Putin and his cronies are determined to try to bomb Ukraine infrastructure as winter approaches. NATO stands behind Ukraine with the US a leader in the supply of defensive means to give Ukraine a chance to defend themselves. God Bless the defenders but where this all winds up has yet to play out.  I have one hope that the Russian people will rise up and mass protest the war against Ukraine. But alas, such hope gets dim when I read the sentiment of many inside feel they need to win to protect their "motherland".  Why don't they see that there was no real threat to them in the first place and if they just STOP and go back, peace could rain down on them instead of possible nuclear WAR that continues to linger in veiled threats by some Russians in the Kremlin.  The pundits sometimes downplay nuclear war, but it is there like an elephant wearing a dress in the room.   And yet no end is in sight. A harsh winter is coming.  Just give it up poopin' Putin! But they don't (yet)- sigh.

What does all this have to with the stock market you may ask.   With the ensemble of concurrent happenings in the world and our country, paint me market cautious and bearish on the overall market in the near term.  Some stocks may stand out as winners, even in a bear market.

Stock Talk

Here are two stocks on my radar with interesting prospects.  I also note the word "speculation" and use caution in the words "some" not "too much", if any or not.

• VERU - I have posted on this one. Currently underwater in some shares but holding on the basis of lives saved. Does the FDA care? "tbd" says the shadow. BUT VERU has expanded viral indications planned.

• RIGL - Am I crazy to wonder about a penny stock currently under $1 about to be delisted?  The other day, news of FDA approval of treatment that brought a Complete remission of a form of acute Leukemia. RIGL has been a beleaguered stock, under a buck. Perhaps this FDA approval to treat about 1,000 people in the US will capture interest to make a comeback of over a buck a share? RIGL is flirting with a buck but -tbd, only the shadow knows.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rigel-rigl-fda-nod-blood-174

My recent findings on energy stocks?  I had purchased 50 shares of OXY and DVN.  Sometimes, to get the feel of a particular market, it seems like you have to put some "skin in the game".   I learned that energy stocks in oil and gas, in the current economic climate, are just as dicey as the rest of the market. If an oil sheik in Saudi Arabia sneezes about supply or the pundits speak of $60 oil from Russia, the stocks knee jerk all over the place.  Reactions like that remind me of toppy markets and I got out with a small gain. Looking back at recent action, I'm glad I did for now anyway.  That said, DVN is paying quite a good dividend, over 7 %. But the way the stock knee jerks if falls 10 % what good is that?

Stay tuned if you enjoy this Jones report.  It's worth every penny you pay. (that's a joke, ha). This site is just for fun. Somebody please let me know when the fun begins. Maybe when the world gets back to "normal".  What is normal anymore??? Ok , sign me out folks! Thank you for reading.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Stock Talk: "Risk OFF"

 

Market Talk

Hello friends:

It's time for a brief update on the market and stocks. 

I was bearish before and I still am.  Things are seemingly getting worse rather than better.  I posted this before and don't see progress.

Let's review the pros and cons about the current world:

It is a costly outcome to life, liberty and world economy with Russia continuing their aggression on Ukraine.  Russia is losing in the conventional warfare arena and losing ground in eastern Ukraine that was illegally annexed by Putin.  But alas, Putin has put a new general in charge that has no morals towards civilians. It can only get uglier before this is over and the world's nuclear clock is ticking closer to midnight.

Inflation is raging as the Fed continues to try to fight it by raising interest rates.

Recession looms as some big companies like Ford and Intel are starting to lay off workers in the US. This points to a possible period of stagflation in the weather forecast.

Stocks are continuing to slowly fade in market value as I projected here months ago.

Where is the good news?

One good thing that happened was NASA successfully altered the trajectory of an asteroid.  

The rest of the good news is how you live your life and you decide what is good news for you.

The word is basically in a wartime status.  The market pundits have mixed predictions about the coming economy.  

The democrats in power want to ignore the definition of a recession, two consecutive quarters of falling GDP.

So, what does this all mean to me about the stock market today?

I am staying defensive in stocks with dry powder.  

Stock Talk

Risk OFF.

Dry Powder for awhile.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Three stocks to Watch: Energy: OXY and DVN and just ONE Biotech: VERU has a coming BLOCKBUSTER?

 Market Talk

The market will have many headwinds as the winter approaches.  Unless we are very selective, it may be better to just forego trading stocks and stash the cash.  However, inflation is eroding the value of cash!   So, what to do?

The remaining part of this post will cover some stocks of interest.

Stock Talk

When the Democrats took control, they declared a war on the oil and gas industry.

After WW II large suburbs in America were built to provide homes for the veterans as they built new lives and families in the new peace in the aftermath of their saving the entire world from tyranny.  These homes are still present and use heating oil in oil burning furnaces.  Since they took office, it now costs over $1500 to fill a typical oil tank for part of the winter.  Before they took office it was less than half that price.

The following oil and gas companies have seen a good stock rise over the past year.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)

Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)

The democrats do not seem to have a clue about the impact of rising heating oil costs in America, let alone the harsh cold winter expected in Europe. Their Oil and gas war is not a balanced approach to energy independence of America.

I am watching the above two stocks and have initiated a buy some on both OXY and DVN. I suspect earnings will outperform and am in a few "some" shares of each to see if the stocks will continue higher.  Warren Buffet is also in OXY bigtime.

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A Biotech stock to watch:   VERU

As far as other stocks, I am in some of VERU on the hope that their lead drug, "Sabi", will become a Blockbuster to treat and save lives of Covid patients that suffer from Acute respiratory distress (ARD).

VERU will do well if the key drug "Sabi" is selected by the FDA to gain Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to treat hospital patients in acute respiratory distress (ARD).  There has been a slight delay in the Advisory meeting to address the relatively small patient population of the phase 3 clinical trial that was stopped on apparent overwhelming efficacy and safety of saving lives of covid patients in ARD.  The FDA advisory committee will weigh in on the EUA decision on November 9.   An FDA nod towards EUA would start VERU's "Sabi" as a coming BLOCKBUSTER to treat many, even beyond Covid. Cancer trials are in progress with Sabi as well 

All I can say is with the FDA one never can actually know what the outcome will be, especially when small Pharma is involved. 

In summary:

•  Energy :   OXY and DVN

•  Biotech :  VERU

Maybe some of the above will outperform, even in a volatile market, and merit watching.  I'm in 50 shares each of OXY and DVN and some of VERU long.  I see VERU as having a coming Blockbuster in Sabi with my "some" shares.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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A Jones Report Update ...Thursday October 13, 2022

 

Market Talk

It's been awhile since I've posted my musings with a bearish sentiment on the overall market.  

Let's review the pros and cons about the current world:

It is a costly outcome to life, liberty and world economy with Russia continuing their aggression on Ukraine.  Russia is losing in the conventional warfare arena and losing ground in eastern Ukraine that was illegally annexed by Putin.  But alas, Putin has put a new general in charge that has no morals towards civilians. It can only get uglier before this is over and the world's nuclear clock is ticking closer to midnight.

Inflation is raging as the Fed continues to try to fight it by raising interest rates.

Recession looms as some big companies like Ford and Intel are starting to lay off workers in the US. This points to a possible period of stagflation in the weather forecast.

Stocks are continuing to slowly fade in market value as I projected here months ago.

Where is the good news?

One good thing that happened was NASA successfully altered the trajectory of an asteroid.  

The rest of the good news is how you live your life and you decide what is good news for you.

The word is basically in a wartime status.  The market pundits have mixed predictions about the coming economy.  

The democrats in power want to ignore the definition of a recession, two consecutive quarters of falling GDP.

So, what does this all mean to me about the stock market today?

I am staying defensive in stocks with dry powder.  However, sometimes fence sitting is just a way to bide time when uncertainty and economic signals are sketchy.  For example, will the Federal Reserve be able to mastermind the mythical "soft landing" of the economy by raising interest rates to counter raging inflation?  Or is a recession or worse looming around the corner of time.  Will the country be forced into stagflation with both recession AND inflation at the same time?

The market had enjoyed a bullish run in a bear market. I think we are still in a bear market and favor dry powder (cash) till the dust settles.  The Fed is trying to strengthen the US dollar and taking actions that could cause some pain in the markets.

Stock Talk

I feel the need to refrain on stock talk at the moment.  Except to say that a view of just "some" of a particular stock may be an approach to consider in a dollar cost average mindset.

Why Refrain ?  because of the dynamic:

 "Something always happens" 

Sometimes, it may be better just stand aside due to higher risk and uncertainty.

I had previously posted about the one stock, VERU, that may do well if the key drug "Sabi" is selected by the FDA to gain Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to treat hospital patients in acute respiratory distress (ARD).  There has been a slight delay in the Advisory meeting to address the relatively small patient population of the phase 3 clinical trial that was stopped on apparent overwhelming efficacy and safety of saving lives of covid patients in ARD.  The FDA advisory committee will weigh in on the EUA decision on November 9.  

All I can say is with the FDA one never can actually know what the outcome will be, especially when small Pharma is involved. 

I hold a small position of VERU with hope that the reason the Independent Data monitoring Committee (IDMC) halted the trial will stand up and EUA on Sabi will happen as winter Flu season approaches along with the new Covid variants that scientists say are coming.

While institutions are seemingly holding VERU, a small VERU position may be warranted for us little people, but I can't say that a large position is smart because with the FDA decisions and stocks ...

 "something always happens"

VERU remains a stock to watch on my list because the European Union has Sabi up for expedited EMA review as well.  If Europe somehow beat the FDA to give Sabi the nod, I would think about doubling down on my VERU holdings.  But alas, we have not seen such indications as of this posting.

Maybe just "some" VERU, depending on the appetite for risk because "if" VERU does gain EUA on Sabi, it's off to the races as a stock to hold long. VERU would rocket on EMA or EUA in my viewfinder. 

The other adage is that "things change"

Until then, keep on keepin' on and check in here for the next update as things change.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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The Economy? Only the future will say on a Soft or Hard landing and Stagflation.

 

Market Talk

The market pundits have mixed predictions about the coming economy.  

The democrats in power want to ignore the definition of a recession, two consecutive quarters of falling GDP.

"a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters."

So, I will point to an example.  Ford had a beat on earnings last quarter. BUT they warned of slowing times ahead and announced a possible coming layoff of 8,000 workers.  So if the large companies are planning layoffs to keep their eps numbers up, just WHOM will be buying new cars and trucks?

I am staying defensive in stocks with dry powder.  However, sometimes fence sitting is just a way to bide time when uncertainty and economic signals are sketchy.  For example, will the Federal Reserve be able to mastermind the mythical "soft landing" of the economy by raising interest rates to counter raging inflation?  Or is a recession or worse looming around the corner of time.  Will the country be forced into stagflation with both recession AND inflation at the same time?

The market recently has enjoyed a bullish run in a bear market. 

Stock Talk

I feel the need to refrain on stock talk at the moment.  Except to say that a view of just "some" of a particular stock may be an approach to consider in a dollar cost average mindset.

Why Refrain ?  because of the dynamic:

 "Something always happens" 

Sometimes, it may be better just stand aside due to higher risk and uncertainty.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Russia's Putin has gone Nuts over the Ukraine.

 

Special Report.

The Ukrainian's are putting up a valiant and defiant defense against Russian troops at the moment.  There is a battle for Kyiv and the Ukrainian army and citizens are fighting back. Refugees from Ukraine are pouring into Poland.

How long will the people of Russia put up with Vladimir Putin?

Things are NOT going well for the Russian military, many of whom do NOT want to be waging war on cousins. However, the Russian military is known to be ruthless acting with a lack of soul.

We can hope and pray they get rid of Putin from within!  Russia should retreat from such foolishness and aggression on the Ukraine.

Will they?  It could well be an area of protracted pain and anguish. Meanwhile, China and Russia played good cop/ bad cop today as market bulls rushed back in from the sidelines. Remember that Xi awarded Putin a "best friend" award from communist China.

Market Talk

Expect more volatility in markets.  Beware head fakes like today where greed overtakes fear as bulls rush back in. Bulls may be fools. It's not over as far as impact.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Vaxart's (VXRT) Oral Vaccine points to strong mucosal protection in NHP, now in Phase 2 Clinical Trial.

 

Stock Talk

Vaxart, Inc.

Newly published data demonstrates substantial cross-reactivity against multiple variants of COVID-19

S-only candidate is believed to be the first to demonstrate robust neutralizing antibody responses in mucosal sites, which is where primary infection occurs

Vaxart’s S-only candidate induced a 1000-fold increase in nasal IgA responses to the variants, which could have substantial impact on reducing community transmission

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vaxart-only-covid-19-vaccine-133000574.html

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Watch oil and natural gas ETF's. (communist China is not a friend)

 

Market Talk

War has erupted with Russia invading Ukraine.  If anybody has been reading here, you are not surprised.  Maybe you took cover from the cascading market that I've been predicting. Maybe you dumped the stocks that are partnering with communist China too?  If you tuned in here maybe you would have dumped Apple at the peak, over 25 points ago.  Not many Apple bulls agreed. But how are they doing now? 

So, on the very same day that Putin will get sanctioned by all of the NATO nations, we see communist China announcing that they will UP the amount of coal to buy from Russia.

 WHY?

news flash: communist China is NOT our friend! 

This is not a bash on the people of China.  It's their military and communist leaders with dominance on their agenda.

https://youtu.be/AFn-fe9L0x4

I would not be holding any stocks that use or plan to use Communist China as a manufacturing source. 

Stock Talk

Watching ETF's that are related to Oil, maybe Texas sweet crude for example, and Natural Gas.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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The Russian invasion starts at Donbas

 

Market Talk

Today we see Putin making claims on what he thinks is Russian territory in the Ukraine and further claiming that Ukraine is a puppet state of what he views as a threat to Russia.

It's clear that Putin has sent his "peace keeping forces" into the Donbas region to take over the eastern part of Ukraine.  Where and when will this all end?  My posted "peace plan" is off the table since Russia is exerting military intimidation and is invading to take over the Donbas region at a minimum for the moment.  Should we postulate with predictions about how "the market" will react?  I could use some old adages to surmise. 

 "The market hates uncertainty."

 "The market climbs a wall of worry."

The above two quotes are two that kind of oppose each other.  Then there is an adage:

"The market tries to look 3 to 6 months ahead of today".

So, what's next? 

I could postulate and go on and on about what Putin and Xi of the People's Republic of China (PRC) may pull on Taiwan.

A few things are pretty clear: 

Energy demands are going to make oil and gas much more costly. Just two short years ago before the Dems got in, America was energy independent.  At the moment America actually imports over 100,000 Barrels of oil from Russia today!

So, speaking of adages the Democrats have a saying:  "never let a good crisis go to waste". The Dems may change the current policy of discouraging oil and natural gas production in America to going back to pursuit of energy independence.  However, that is at odds with their "green energy" plans.  It should be noted that about 80% of America's electricity comes from fossil fuels, so what powers the grid if everybody is plugging into ev's? Rolling power outages coming? Actually, natural gas is a pretty reliable and clean burning energy source.  America is RICH in natural gas! The Dems bark up the wrong trees and are making America weak.

Stock Talk

At the moment energy stocks are in play because Oil and gas derived from friendly places and from within America will be in extreme demand.  Today, we are witnessing Russia invade the Donbas region. That is war starting.  The speculators will try to play the various scenarios that seem like they have a good grip on.  The odds are seeming that oil and gas will surge higher.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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PEACE PLAN for the Ukraine: Look to the Switzerland model.

 This Stock site is momentarily interrupted by Spider's other site.  If anybody out there has any influence to get this to anybody of influence, send this to them.

  SpirtWind.blogspot.com

PEACE

My oh my.  Anybody who has been watching the events playing out on the Russian/ Ukraine border is surely dismayed.  The Russian's say they do not want Ukraine to join NATO.  At the same time NATO say's the Ukraine is not part of NATO but there is support for the sovereignty and independence.  What kind of support though?  From the reports, it appears that the Ukraine is woefully outnumbered by the Russian military presence on the border and incursion has started which can lead to an invasion. Signs point to the brink of war starting.

Let's face facts now.  The Ukrainian's claim they will fight back but they are woefully outnumbered with tanks, air power, missiles and war ships in the Baltic Sea.  It's an unfair fight. It appears that if Russia invades with over whelming air power, it would be more like shooting fish in a barrel.

Does Putin really want to be the most hated man in the world?  Perhaps not and perhaps there is another way? Peace brothers and sisters!

 Here is an idea I have not yet heard proposed:

Propose Ukraine will go NEUTRAL and remain sovereign but independent, much like Switzerland.  Would making the Ukraine be like a buffer nation of peace and neutrality be a win/win?  Neutrality could remove the perceived NATO threat away from Russia.   If claiming neutrality would prevent an unfair one-sided war, maybe it would give all parties an excuse to claim victory, shake hands, and BACK OFF from the Brink of WAR.

 

What do they have to lose from trying? Better to live in peace.

reconstruct, leave the rest behind:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzXMFdvJ6Tk

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This site is JUST for PEACE and FUN.
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The Russian Bear, Inflation, a closed Monday - affects the Market and many stocks.

 

Market Talk

I have been circumspect on the market suggesting maintaining more dry powder.  Geopolitical concerns and raging inflation are just a few reasons after the markets recently attained all-time highs. 

Russia is reported to now have 190,000 military personnel at or near the Ukraine.  The odds seem to be increasing of an incursion into some parts of Ukraine.  The drums of war are escalating tensions.

The freedom rider trucker convoy in Canada are in standoff with Canada using it an excuse to crack down on crypto funding.  It raises the question if the trend will continue causing pressure on bitcoin.

The stock market is closed on Monday.  A skittish market as to what the world and the impact of sanctions should Russia launch an attack.  Once again, I say here that it's clear Putin wants something to come out of military actions that talking did not resolve to their satisfaction.

 Aside from unpleasant war and potential deaths, the uncertainty to the market, such as in oil being cut off and now planned nuclear exercises by Russian being led by Putin?  The democrats have discouraged oil and gas production here in the US, losing the advantage of being energy independent.

Stock Talk

As far as the market and stocks goes, who can blame it for taking cover on uncertainty?

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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A Cool Car company is on the watch list - Fisker Inc (FSR)

 

Stock Talk

Here are some stocks on the watch list:

Autos:           Ford (F), GM, Fisker (FSR)

Chips:           Microchip Tech (MCHT), Intel

Infrastructure:       US Steel (X)

Banking:               Bank of America (BAC), PNC

Bitcoin mining:     CleanSpark Inc (CLSK)

Fisker (FSR) was an interesting new car company on the map of stocks when it was just over $20.  But then the market thought better when the supply chain woes came to solid established companies like Ford and GM - and maybe the market paid up a little too much on FSR, the new player.  But Fisker is a well-known name of experience and has an interesting game plan contracting Magna International and Foxconn to manufacture where Fisker will launch new stylish ev's that claim high mile ranges and sustainable materials like roof-top solar panels and seat cushions made from recycled plastic material from the ocean.  Now that FSR stock has faded to the $12ish range in a corrective market, it merits at least watching.  On what basis you may be asking to Spider J Jones?  I will reply simply that the new Fisker prototype cars look cool, and the design is touting extended ranges, and they are taking reservations for future productions at affordable pricing to many.

As usual, I will close with the notion of maintaining dry $ powder seems like a good move in circumspect markets; especially with war and raging inflation on the table of uncertain futures.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.

A Day of optimism in a world of Uncertainty lifts the markets - will it last? with some stocks to Watch.

 

Market Talk

What is happening on the Russian / Ukraine front?  There is some market optimism that the military deployments on the borders will not erupt into war and that further talks will continue.  What will actually happen?   The following is a good article to explain the confusing situation. One thing is clear, the Russian's want something to come from all of the "military drills".

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-vladimir-putin-moscow-2b5ffbcff0eb80be38239eb5d3d49ded

Stock Talk

Even though the market is responding to any optimism on the Ukraine front, there is still raging inflation and the US Federal reserve is expected to do the job of reigning it in by raising interest rates over time.  It will start in March.  The market and interest dependent stocks will typically respond unfavorably to raising rates.

However, the recent correction, seems to make some bottom fishing look appealing . The key word here is "seems".

With the above caveats, the following is a list of some stocks of interest:

Autos:                  Ford (F), GM, Fisker (FSR)

Chips:                  Microchip Tech (MCHT), Intel

Infrastructure:      US Steel (X)

Banking:              Bank of America (BAC), PNC

Bitcoin mining:    CleanSpark (CLSK), others too

The above stocks are not buy/sell recommendations (I do not do that here).  However, each have some interesting characteristics that could cause them to move higher if market conditions remain favorable in their respective areas. The last mentioned on bitcoin mining are more speculative, dependent upon the volatile movements of bitcoin values.  If interested, stay tuned to future postings as I will likely opine on the market, stocks and more.

As usual, I will close with the notion of maintaining $ dry powder $ seems like a good move in circumspect markets; especially with war and raging inflation on the table of uncertain futures.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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The Russian Bear, Inflation and the FED add up to bad market juju in my viewfinder.

 

Market Talk

The markets have corrected some and are bouncing now.  Will a bull rally continue into the year? Remember the Fed's intention to start the raise of interest rates in March. Further, the Russian bear is surrounding the Ukraine with military equipment and over 100,000 troops.  The Olympics wind down in the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) around February 20.  The Ukraine and Taiwan are not under the umbrella of NATO and Russia and the PRC are aggressors on the world stage. These are examples of macro factors that make me circumspect about many stocks, especially companies that may be enjoying nice runs but are dependent on a partnership with the PRC.

With the above overall market wariness, the sidelines look safer to me at this time.

 

Dry Powder -   I would not go all in on any stock with the macro dynamics of global strife and Fed tightening to address inflation.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Three stocks of interest in a circumspect market (Microchip Technology, Ford ... and CleanSpark ???)

 

Market Talk

The markets have corrected some and are bouncing now.  Will a bull rally continue into the year? Remember the Fed's intention to start the raise of interest rates in March. Further, the Russian bear is surrounding the Ukraine with military equipment and over 100,000 troops.  The Olympics wind down in the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) around February 20.  The Ukraine and Taiwan are not under the umbrella of NATO and Russia and the PRC are aggressors on the world stage. These are examples of macro factors that make me circumspect about many stocks, especially companies that may be enjoying nice runs but are dependent on a partnership with the PRC.  My previous post still holds for me.

With the above overall market wariness, I will highlight a few stocks that are capturing my interest.

Stock Talk 

Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP) was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Chandler, Arizona. The global chip shortage has affected the supply chain of many industrial products such as Automobiles. While it appears that MCHP ($76) uses semiconductor wafers made in the USA, the specific chips are made in faraway places such as the Philippines.    MCHP uses vendors to take their catalog and supply to manufacturers.  There is a push for the big industrial companies to go deal directly with producers of chips and there is a push by the US government to produce the chips within the US.  These are dynamics that make me believe that MCHP is a stock to watch.

Ford (F)  is a company I have highlighted as a "some stock" since it was in the $11 range.  It has since risen to the mid 20's and when it did, I suggested here that it may trade below and above the 20 range awhile.  The above-mentioned chip shortage was and is one reason I believed Ford would remain range bound. Now that Ford has faded back to the 17's and 18's range it may be a buy some stock yet again.

Ford's electric vehicles like the maverick and the Lightning F 150 pickup are sold out for the 2022 models. 

CleanSpark Inc (CLSK) -  I have highlighted this bitcoin miner and energy related co in the business of microgrids.  It has been volatile with what I viewed as excess insider feather bedding. However, CLSK's recent quarter may reflect a turning point and is bouncing off the bottom.  I re- mention it today because they actually produced a pretty positive quarter in terms of reporting an eps of .35.   I was disillusioned by management and sold CLSK stock in the 20's and it is now at single digits and bouncing.  It may be a stock of interest as a speculation if bitcoin can hold levels. 

"BRIEF-Cleanspark Reports First Quarter FY22 Financial Results

BY Reuters
— 4:55 PM ET 02/09/2022

Feb 9 (Reuters) - CleanSpark Inc ( CLSK ):

* CLEANSPARK REPORTS RECORD FIRST QUARTER FY2022 FINANCIAL RESULTS

* Q1 EARNINGS PER SHARE $0.35

* Q1 REVENUE $41.2 MILLION Source text for Eiko"

Dry Powder -   I would not go all in on any stock with the macro dynamics of global strife and Fed tightening to address inflation.  some? maybe.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Market Circumspection and Predictions until/ unless "things change" again.

 

Market Talk

I have been circumspect on the market and crypto. This has saved me from recent precipitous falls lately.  While many pundits say buy the dip, I remain cautious.  Further, I predict that Bitcoin along with other crypto will continue to fall harshly.  Now that may actually be good for working people that work for US dollars and pay the bills in US dollars, even with inflation.  It's things like excesses in false security like Bitcoin that tears down the fundamentals of the American way. As follow through, stocks related to bitcoin may continue to fall as a passing fad. Beware putting all hope n' dreams in fake stuff.  Watch out for dead cat bounces.

Beware fake news. The real news would tell you that the PRC has many hypersonic missiles aimed right at us that travel faster than 2 miles per second from near space and they cannot be stopped once launched. My response is to sell anything related or partners with the PRC.  Watch putting your faith in stocks that have feather beds at the helm.

I've been circumspect about crypto, the overall market and stocks. I still am based on global concerns and market levels that may be overpriced with risks of fiscal tightening, inflation and threats of aggression and possible WAR.  The above views make me market bearish unless I see change that warrants otherwise. 

The sea is cast in fog and the stars are hiding in the sky. 

hunkered down market wise, dry powder.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Market Opinion - SELL Companies Partnering with the PRC.

 

Market Talk

 

Are you people aware that the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) have used outsourcing gains and knowledge gained to develop an entire new class of Missiles called Hypersonic. The PRC has already launched one into space and then it can go directly over a target, like an aircraft carrier or a country and reach hypersonic speed of OVER mach 10 times the speed of sound? That speed is OVER 2 Miles in ONE second. Nothing can stop it and they have developed evasive flight and targeting. THAT is what the PRC has done with knowledge gained and profits from our companies like APPLE that have partnered . I say STOP investing in companies that partner with the PRC because they have developed dastardly machines with no defense and WE do not have such capability yet. And when we do , then what? 2 minutes to target? Poofters! 

wake up ! 

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Tensions remain high on the Russia/ Ukraine front. Is China next? Hyper-sonic missiles may change the narrative.

 

Market Talk

This post is an update on global tensions that mainstream media seems to be ignoring.  Why?  My guess is that China and left wing politicians, mostly democrats, own much of the media.

Watching Russia on the Ukraine border. If tensions escalate to an all out Ukraine invasion, China may be bolstered into invading Taiwan. Read the today's news....

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday the talks in Geneva were “open, comprehensive and direct,” an assessment echoed by Washington. But Peskov said it was the result that ultimately matters.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia, Dec. 23, 2021.

“So far, let’s say we see no significant reason for optimism,” he said in a conference call with reporters.

Victoria Nuland, U.S. undersecretary of state for political affairs, told reporters Tuesday, “We haven’t seen the slightest hint of de-escalation” on Russia’s part. “It is Russia that created this crisis out of whole cloth” by deploying 100,000 troops just across from Ukraine’s eastern border.

https://www.voanews.com/a/conflict-along-ukraine-border-focus-of-nato-russia-talks-/6393384.html

Meanwhile, the US market is ignoring the rapid development in the PRC of a new class of terrifying missiles called hypersonic.  After looking into this it points to bad policy of generational outsourcing to the PRC.  This is not a bash on Chinese citizens, however their communist leaders have directed the military side to develop a  hyper sonic missile program, successfully tested, and are now building out a hundred silos that will give the ability to push a button and rain down on us death at imperceptible speeds over ten times that of sound.  If it doesn't happen, the threat of it will change the narrative.

This is serious stuff that could well lead to the end of humanity as we know it. But, the hypersonics are so fast and evasive that some crazy leader may get the notion that they have first strike advantage. China is reported to building new silos and nobody cares? 

 

Market Warning :  If the Russians invade Ukraine, watch out for China on Taiwan. 

Are growing tensions coming to a head?

Is a cold war with Russian and China on the verge of reality?

Many questions point to possible economic sanctions on Russia and possibly sanctions in dealings with both Russia and China.  A perceived first strike advantage may lead to arrogance of their military leaders.

 Stock Talk
 

Due to the serious nature of the above post I will refrain from mentioning specific stocks, like Apple, that have extensive dependence on the People's republic of  China with generational outsourcing practices. 

hey people -  wake up.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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So, the socialist Dems are now saying armed robbery is NOT a crime?

 

Market Talk

• China's hyper-sonic missiles?
• Russia's troops aggressive on the Ukraine front?
• coming sanctions on actions and bad juju with no mojo?
• Omicron fear makes the teachers whine and some quit?
• BAD policy at the borders?
• Inflation raging and Fed actions to up interest rates, yup.
•  and now....  NYC "woke" Dems are saying ARMED ROBBERY is NOT a CRIME ????

 

 

Ok well, the above is enough to say your "socialist DEM" experiment has FAILED.

I'm bearish on the overall market. At some point the macro affects the micro.

and yet maybe some Ford and US steel (X) may hold up.

more cash, dry powder, while bad policy plays out. 

Thank the democrats in office. That's a view today from this independent observer.

 

 

  Stock Talk

 

A few stocks, in the US,  that come too mind are:

 

• Ford (F), hold - just some
  
• Micron Technology (MU), waiting
  
• US Steel (X), hold - just some
  
• less spec, more cash for Dry Powder.
  

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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