Market Talk
It's been awhile since I've posted my musings with a bearish sentiment on the overall market.
Let's review the pros and cons about the current world:
It is a costly outcome to life, liberty and world economy with Russia continuing their aggression on Ukraine. Russia is losing in the conventional warfare arena and losing ground in eastern Ukraine that was illegally annexed by Putin. But alas, Putin has put a new general in charge that has no morals towards civilians. It can only get uglier before this is over and the world's nuclear clock is ticking closer to midnight.
Inflation is raging as the Fed continues to try to fight it by raising interest rates.
Recession looms as some big companies like Ford and Intel are starting to lay off workers in the US. This points to a possible period of stagflation in the weather forecast.
Stocks are continuing to slowly fade in market value as I projected here months ago.
Where is the good news?
One good thing that happened was NASA successfully altered the trajectory of an asteroid.
The rest of the good news is how you live your life and you decide what is good news for you.
The word is basically in a wartime status. The market pundits have mixed predictions about the coming economy.
The democrats in power want to ignore the definition of a recession, two consecutive quarters of falling GDP.
So, what does this all mean to me about the stock market today?
I am staying defensive in stocks with dry powder. However, sometimes fence sitting is just a way to bide time when uncertainty and economic signals are sketchy. For example, will the Federal Reserve be able to mastermind the mythical "soft landing" of the economy by raising interest rates to counter raging inflation? Or is a recession or worse looming around the corner of time. Will the country be forced into stagflation with both recession AND inflation at the same time?
The market had enjoyed a bullish run in a bear market. I think we are still in a bear market and favor dry powder (cash) till the dust settles. The Fed is trying to strengthen the US dollar and taking actions that could cause some pain in the markets.
Stock Talk
I feel the need to refrain on stock talk at the moment. Except to say that a view of just "some" of a particular stock may be an approach to consider in a dollar cost average mindset.
Why Refrain ? because of the dynamic:
"Something always happens"
Sometimes, it may be better just stand aside due to higher risk and uncertainty.
I had previously posted about the one stock, VERU, that may do well if the key drug "Sabi" is selected by the FDA to gain Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to treat hospital patients in acute respiratory distress (ARD). There has been a slight delay in the Advisory meeting to address the relatively small patient population of the phase 3 clinical trial that was stopped on apparent overwhelming efficacy and safety of saving lives of covid patients in ARD. The FDA advisory committee will weigh in on the EUA decision on November 9.
All I can say is with the FDA one never can actually know what the outcome will be, especially when small Pharma is involved.
I hold a small position of VERU with hope that the reason the Independent Data monitoring Committee (IDMC) halted the trial will stand up and EUA on Sabi will happen as winter Flu season approaches along with the new Covid variants that scientists say are coming.
While institutions are seemingly holding VERU, a small VERU position may be warranted for us little people, but I can't say that a large position is smart because with the FDA decisions and stocks ...
"something always happens"
VERU remains a stock to watch on my list because the European Union has Sabi up for expedited EMA review as well. If Europe somehow beat the FDA to give Sabi the nod, I would think about doubling down on my VERU holdings. But alas, we have not seen such indications as of this posting.
Maybe just "some" VERU, depending on the appetite for risk because "if" VERU does gain EUA on Sabi, it's off to the races as a stock to hold long. VERU would rocket on EMA or EUA in my viewfinder.
The other adage is that "things change"
Until then, keep on keepin' on and check in here for the next update as things change.
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This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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