Tuesday, April 13, 2021

Will Tomorrow be a Sea of "Crypto Mania" - triggered by The COIN ipo ?

 Market Talk

We have called the stock market a "Candy land" of sorts lately protected by a benevolent Fed Chairman, Jay Powell, and the Federal reserve with a somewhat compassionate view to the unemployed masses. Their plan is to wait until inflation shows a sustained increase that would require raising interest rates to the public in buying automobiles and homes and credit cards, etc.  Not everyone is sure that the Fed stance is going to play out but the market is saying "whatever" - it's a Candy land market.

Stock Talk 

This does not mean to say that all stocks are flying higher but for now, the previous take down on growth stocks like tech stocks seems to have let up.

Meanwhile, the Crypto CRAZE is really picking up steam with the Coinbase IPO debut happening tomorrow under symbol COIN. [update  4/14]  The "reference price"  is $250 / now indicated opening at $350. 

I will say..  it feels like tomorrow's market is very unpredictable, especially in the " Crypto" based stocks.

I won't even try to predict how the market will trade the miners and other exchange related issues. Right now, Bitcoin and Ethereum are at peak prices.  Some say they are going even higher.  On the other hand after the COIN IPO settles down we may see the crypto coins settle down as well.

In one way, if Crypto goes too high, it seems like the government may want to cool off what they see as a threat to centralized power. If the US decides to cool it off, they likely can just by cleverly guarded warnings of pending actions under consideration.

Will they?  I don't know.  It's Candy land. A place where many ignore warnings and cautions and trade the day.

These are a few stocks I will be watching to see what happens tomorrow. But "watching" makes it hard not to get caught up in the Crypto hype. 

If I see what looks like an interesting buy in, maybe I will buy - just ONE or maybe two-  COIN shares.

To me , at the moment the following are interesting watch stocks to see how they trade.

COIN, MARA,  RIOT,  CAN,  EBON,  CLSK  ?

Keep an eye on them like little boats in a sea of Crypto mania. Not saying to buy or sell any. I don't know. Maybe for us little people - just one or two shares of COIN if not too high above the start? That is a question - not a statement of advice. see how it opens first.

  •  keep some Dry Powder $ .
  •  some say buy some Bitcoin or Ethereum. But is this the peak range?  whoNose?NotMe.
  • The smart way may be to $ cost average into Crypto in small portions - if starting to think Bitcoin and Ethereum is wave into the future. "If".
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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.. 
This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Monday, April 12, 2021

The Bitcoin and Crypto Craze may be a little too hot and uhhhh ?

 Market Talk

Today we see one Bitcoin over $60,000  peak range.  Meanwhile the Crypto nerds are saying how "the experts" predict  $100 K and even as high as $400 K in some  not too far off scenarios.  Now my view is - who knows?  There are plenty of alternative futures that crypto could take, not all as promising.  However, there is no denying that Bitcoin and Crypto has been a powerful force.  But a notion that comes back is that as Bitcoin rises it takes power out of fiat currency and as a result shows weakness in Government policies.

 Stock Talk 
 

 Bitcoin is rising but the " miners" have to pay up for new crypto mining asic's. 

 An application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) is an integrated circuit (IC) chip customized for a particular use, rather than intended for general-purpose use. For example, a chip designed a high-efficiency bitcoin miner is an ASIC.
 
The Crypto miners need to buy more and more power to keep up with the computing power needed to mine bitcoins. 

For example one miner I follow recently ordered about $18 million dollars of ASICs likely from a company in China. With bitcoin at present high levels that equates to about 300 Bitcoins.  That is a lot of bitcoins!  That gets included into "operational costs" against future eps.. With the uncertainty involved I can't justify paying up for miners.  I will say that there is a lot of hype and day-trading of the miners , but it seems like too speculative to be in a stock I follow at the moment.  I am not saying that  Crypto hype wont take it higher but the numbers are not adding up right now in some.  To the ones that believe Bitcoin will see $100 K and higher? maybe they can wait, but in the meantime we've seen the Crypto stocks whipsaw about. Those whipsaws are painful if in too much or any at all. I will say - eps still matters in stocks.

On Wedensday CoinBase is going public with symbol COIN.  This is a leader in Crypto exchanges. But the stock won't be cheap. I read that it may start at $375 a share! 

 Is buying a few shares like 3 shares of COIN a reasonable approach if someone wants in?  The crypto nerds will likely drive it higher and take it out of reach or make it feel like it is.  By the time it trades the hype will probably make it feel too late for the little people (like moi).
 
One notion that makes me cautious is that if bitcoin keeps surging, the government will view it as a threat to fiat currency and it is indeed. There could always be threats or real actions that tend to toss cold water on crypto levels.  the younger generation does not believe it possible.  However, some will point to the time the US banned owning gold Bullion in 1933 and waited until 1974 to allow ownership.  The youngsters were not around then were they?

 Am I saying Bitcoin will be Outlawed?  I don't know, but even the threat of it could take it down. Am I saying do not buy bitcoin?  NO.  But be careful . As a hedge - maybe.  But I would not be putting more than a reasonable percentage into crypto.  In fact, with the crypto-hype going on, it makes me wonder if real Gold and silver may be a good way to hedge an uncertain future.

  •   and keep some Dry Powder $ ready.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.. 
This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Friday, April 9, 2021

Things still change daily in Candy Land - be a little careful on the auto sector and watch the chips

 Market Talk

Everyday is a change of shifting views when it comes to the market.  For example, the long term bond vigilantes express the opposite view that the Fed has that near term inflation won't last and that none the less, they plan to maintain low interest rates until they see otherwise. The Fed as represented by Jeremy Powell seems like a smart take to me, for now.  It would not make sense to slow the economy with raising interest rates at a time so many people are unemployed.

 

 Stock Talk 
 
I have been saying that the trend towards electric vehicles seems to be a driving factor (pun intended) in the outlook for GM and Ford.  Indeed we see that GM has already benefited from a sharp little ev car in China selling well.  However, the semiconductor chip shortage has forced their revenue guidance down on the order of $2 Billion dollars in the year outlook.  This is a near-term headwind and both GM and Ford are temporarily shuttering production of some models.
So the headwind is likely already factored into the share price of GM and Ford.  However, we have seen a nice gain for example on GM since it was $36 a share and now struggling to maintain a $60 level. This is why I say just "some" .  But I have to say it "feels like " GM and Ford may have a more stagnant share level for awhile.  Indeed, I'd have to lean to the notion that profit taking may happen, perhaps even short attacks.  As such, I put GM and Ford on my watch carefully list.  If  over-weighted on both I'd think about lightening up.  But I am not making recommendations here.  Just saying watch it. 

 more later...
 
 
Some interesting Stock "Speculations" of note:
 
(remember ancient Chinese curse: may all your days be "interesting") . I view these as maybe "some" stocks not "too much" stocks.
 
  • NNOMF - innovative cathode process patented for the Li ion and the coming or mythical  "glass battery" ?
  • CYTR  -  Is it one-third of a formula to treat Pancreatic Cancer that may succeed?
 
Crypto Stock watch
  • MARA - Is bitcoin mining and buying bitcoin in the $31 K range  paying off?  you be the judge and predictor , if you dare.  MARA looks like a buy some, but on the other hand it's so volatile in both the up and downs that the people that got it in the single digits are day-trading  it and dumping the ups.  Looks too volatile at the moment and something like a  share dilution may cause a dump. it's a watch stock but not a buy for me at this time after the run it's had this year.
  •  CLSK  I'm watching CleanSpark  to see if I am ready to take them out of my penalty box for the last sudden dilution.  If they provide an adequate update on bitcoins mined and some progress on the microgrid energy side, with no further dilutions, it may run higher.  But they need to build back some credibility in my view.  Building a base for a positive eps still matters to stock investors.
  •  Bitcoin -- Will Crypto- currency like Bitcoin continue to be accepted or will governments squash it like a beast tramping on the Tulips?  The Crypto nerds believe it's decentralized nature makes that a hard thing to do and more and more institutions are starting to recognize bitcoin.
 
In closing, I will leave it up to the reader to ponder their own views and check some stocks of interest out and perform their own due diligence. Also in spec stocks, we have learned the importance of the word "some" but not "too much", if daring to venture.
 
  •  and keep some Dry Powder $ ready.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.. 
This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
___

Thursday, April 8, 2021

Welcome to a Candy Land stock market (for awhile?)- GM, F, MO and some Crypto stock talk too..

 Market Talk

Welcome to the new world of "stock market Candy land" .  I think I will coin that phrase. It's a place where near term interest rates are not going to rise and the economic recovery will gain momentum to bring jobs back.  In this place, there are no worries about the pitfalls that may lurk in the darkness to waylay the outlook.  Worries of the battle between the longer term inflation concerns of the bond vigilantes are put aside in Candy land and it may even be sweet enough for the money fund managers to return to growth stocks in tech like such stocks as Apple ? Candy Land is also a place where we don't worry about another round of the Corona variants as people get vaccinated with the three vaccines.
 
Hey there, for now the people of candy land don't even care about looming tax hikes.  There are terms like "woke" that have different meanings to different folks.  It comes with an agenda by organized  groups that want to now teach the young people to feel guilty or "sorry" for being born a certain race and color.  What would Martin Luther King say about that?  To quote the new guy -  Come on man!
 
 
  Stock Talk 
 
I have posted notes on these three since they were lower in share price. They still look good in my view:
 
  •   GM,  FORD : Ev's and incentive notions
  •    Altira (MO)a some dividend stock moving good, under the radar.
 
 
Some interesting Stock "Speculations" of note:
 
(remember ancient Chinese curse: may all your days be "interesting") . I view these as maybe "some" stocks not "too much" stocks.
 
  • NNOMF - innovative cathode process patented for the Li ion and the coming or mythical  "glass battery" ?
  • CYTR  -  Is it one-third of a formula to treat Pancreatic Cancer that my succeed?
  • MARA - Is bitcoin mining and buying bitcoin in the $31 K range  paying off?  you be the judge and predictor , if you dare.
 
  •  CLSK  I'm watching CleanSpark  to see if I am ready to take them out of my penalty box for the last sudden dilution.  If they provide an adequate update on bitcoins mined and some progress on the microgrid energy side, with no further dilutions, it may run higher.  But they need to build back some credibility in my view.  Building a base for a positive eps still matters to stock investors.
 
Will Crypto- currency like Bitcoin continue to be accepted or will governments squash it like a beast tramping on the Tulips?  The Crypto nerds believe it's decentralized nature makes that a hard thing to do and more and more institutions are starting to recognize bitcoin.
 
In closing, I will leave it up to the reader to ponder their own views and check some stocks of interest out and perform their own due diligence. Also in spec stocks, we have learned the importance of the word "some" but not "too much", if daring to venture.
 
  •  and keep some Dry Powder $ ready.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.. 
This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
___

Monday, April 5, 2021

Trading and Investing is trying to LooK into The Future. (GM, FORD, MO, Bitcoin) - updates

  Market Talk

 Hello, Spider J. Jones here.  My last few posts have opined about the state of affairs in the political forum.  If anybody reads this blog, you now know where I stand internally on the direction America is headed.

However, this site is about stock watching.  To the level that political forces can drive the  economy, it seems that will affect specific stocks. Especially in a future "rebounding" economy from the pandemic.

We have seen how the big fancy pants money mangers shift stocks around bailing out of big growth tech stocks, even Apple! , and moving into what they consider "value" stocks like infrastructure, materials, banks, etc.
 
The remainder of this post put's aside the disconcerting events happening and looks to the stocks that may outperform.  I am not recommending ANY of the following stocks because I do NOT make buy / sell recommendations..
That said, I may be in or out of any stock in the entire market at any given time.  But my way is that of a small investor, a peasant of sorts.  I will typically have less than 100 shares or thereabouts of any one stock.   Sometimes, if I am feeling bullish on an issue, I may have a few hundred shares.  If it goes up, I may trade some or all depending on what the outlook is in my view.  That's the way I will roll in these uncertain times. It is up to each person to have their own trading and investing plan if in "the market".
 
Without further adieu, the following stocks may be worth watching as  the political forces in power affect their agenda.

Stock Talk
 
On Sunday, meet the Press had the new transportation secretary, Pete B, on with biased-democrat  Chuck.
One of the main notions is to have everybody in Electric Vehicles (ev's)  made in America by 2035.

No matter which party is in control, it seems like GM and Ford with massive ev plans can do well.  At the moment there is a semiconductor "chip" shortage that is slowing auto productions.  However,  one way to take part in the American ev boom may be to accumulate some GM and F in a dollar cost average way in small purchases along the way. . This is not a suggestion but a notion of what may do well in the coming years, long term.  But the auto industry is an economic sensitive sector. That said, it's not a put all your eggs in that basket sector. maybe some here n' there to see how the future plays out.

I mention the following stock reluctantly - Caterpillar Inc (CAT).  Like GM and Ford, the stock can ebb and flow with the economy.  With infrastructure being all the buzz, CAT is expected to play a roll. However , it's already at an all time high of 234 a share currently.  If we can believe that massive funding is going into "infrastructure"  over the next ten years then CAT tractors will have a big roll in the work. Since it is at an all time high, maybe accumulating small amounts of shares like 4 shares when there is an extra 1000. laying around.  But for me?  It goes against my grain to be buying shares over 200 a share. I'll pass on CAT at the moment.
 
Bitcoin -  Is bitcoin a buy some as a hedge against anticipated inflation?  It seems to be all the buzz. I suspect especially with the rich liberal Democrats who now want to hedge their alliance with themselves.  We can't predict accurately about bitcoin and crypto currency. people think they can, but they can't. I could go on and on about the why.
But , I will say that maybe having a little crypto may be a possible hedge and it may not be.  I started accumulating some bitcoin because I am watching the younger generation of my son and friends that accumulate some here and there. And they have a don't sell it mindset.

Other stocks I am watching:

MO some mighty fine dividend. don't smoke but people do.

Small under the radar some stocks? :
 
NNOMF- Cathode battery stock with innovative patents.

CYTR - small Biotech with big ideas and supplies a part of the compounds to larger Pharma with some possible breakthroughs coming (Pancreatic cancer for one).  Clinical trials in progress, speculative. (not every compound meets the bar for every ailment, but it only takes one)

I had mentioned a few other stocks before as speculative to see what happens.  Chinese crypto related stock EBON.   It was in my penalty box for diluting shares before announcing a crypto-exchange launch. Ebon turned out to be a dilution dog. Its now got a big short seller on it. Yesterday, I was holding a few shares but I've had it. I'm out to cut the loss.
 
Although not a stock - maybe buy some Crypto Bitcoin when it dips -  in small portions. It can be bought and saved in $1 dollar increments.  Maybe just $25 to $100 works now n then as a hedge.  Just some - also maybe some Ethereum.  Most Crypto enthusiasts say $ cost average into it over time.  Crypto can be bought on Paypal and Coinbase.com for example.  Crypto nerds would say Paypal does not give you the Crypto codes as the coinbase.com site allows.  But for neophytes that just want some Crypto exposure -  maybe Paypal works Ok for them because it is easy to use and trade.  But remember, when you sell Crypto, it's a IRS capital gain or loss just like a stock.
 
Dry $ Powder.  (I include some crypto like bitcoin in the mix)
 
 In closing, I will leave it up to the reader to check some stocks of interest out and perform their own due diligence.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.. 
This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
___

Tuesday, March 30, 2021

Are Democrats really THAT stupid? Were the Republicans really worse?

 

 Straight Talk


First, a statement. I am an independent, neither republican or democrat. I have commented when it seemed the Trump administration were morons and now the Democrats are in control.  
 
However,  I do not understand how any thinking person can watch the mishaps on the Southern border and believe that the Democrats have a handle on ANYTHING to do with policy. Or policy that is good for Americans.  Worse for it, they don't even allow the news media in the camps to observe what is going on. We see glimpses of big fat cheeseburgers being packed for children whilst being taught in make shift schools whilst the kids in California can not go to school because of teacher unions.  Why they can't say every teacher gets a vaccine and go to work! is beyond many thinking people.  Kamala?  she was put in charge but does not even travel to the Southern Border to see what's happening in real time. PHONIES ! DEMOCRATS ARE PHONIES THAT PULL "the race CARD" in many cases where it's really NOT a race issue.  Peel the onion and you will see everything is NOT a Black vs White vs Asian issue!  Systemic racism is not as rampant in America as the democrats pander to the issues that do happen..

I will say where did Trump go wrong? He got stupid by not realizing that Black AND White people were hurting over what happened to George Floyd and he just took for granted that "law and order" would deal with it where real talk of reform was needed. That was what rightfully incensed many people.  However, the looting and riots in cities that played out were wrong just as the incident on Jan 6 went overboard .

That was THEN and this is NOW.  

What does this have to do with stocks?  What does this have to do with Policy?  Have you taken a  look at bitcoin price lately?  Do you think it has anything to do with lack of faith in policy?  I'd venture to say that a high majority of bitcoin buyers are DEMOCRATS that voted in the morons!

I'd venture to say that the same democrats do not watch what is going on lately.  Why?  Because to do so makes it abundantly clear they made the wrong choice for America.
 
In closing, I will leave it up to the reader to check some stocks of interest out and perform their own due diligence.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.. 
This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Wednesday, March 24, 2021

The Market has me circumspect - be careful

 Market Talk

 The tech stocks of the Nasdaq are taking it on the chin lately.  The short and long term interest rate views are causing shifts from growth tech stocks to other "value" sectors like banking and energy.  But these market shifts change on a daily basis seem to be causing unpredictable volatility leaving a feeling of "why bother".  The market is limbo between stimulus efforts.

Meanwhile, the investors are watching the new administration carry out executive orders with a confusing agenda like open borders through open spaces in the wall they cancelled and orders that  impact thousands of Americans that were working or affected by the halt on the Keystone pipeline. 
 
The new administration is also being tested in international relations and so far, it appears that the democrats do not have their bearings set with policy confusion abounding.  Add it all up and the market is getting even more and more unpredictable like a ship without a rudder.

Stock Watch

 Although the Dow and markets appear to be at highs, there is "a correction" going on all over the place in many stocks and shifting influences and dynamics can give haircuts to individual stocks in swift and hard moves.  It may pay to weigh each position and adjust down or up such that more dry $ powder is readily available. This is a tough market to try to predict.  There is talk of  another round of future infrastructure stimulus in the range of trillions of US dollars.
But such an agenda has a way to unfold and shifting views and positions in markets make it a more dicey period to trade. I am not saying don't try to pick your stocks.   I'm saying that going "all in" in any one stock position may not be best if the shifting tides don't go our way. 
  
  • maintain some dry $ Powder.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.. 
This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
___