The Fed "pivot" is waking "Elephants in the room" - as the year winds down and related "Stock Talk".

 

Market Talk

The other day, the Federal reserve chairman made a surprising "pivot" on interest rate guidance.  New suggestions that as inflation comes under control, there will likely be coming rate cuts as early as the spring. The market immediately went bonkers higher, only to retreat backward as the ebullience wore down to reality of more circumspect views on soft landing vs hard landing prospects.

Regardless, the market will continue its unpredictable ways, but fundamentals still matter as far as individual stocks.

At the winter solstice, it seems high time to let the elephants in the room air it out. Here is just one elephant, there are many in the room.

In addition to inflation, the strength of US dollar may be waning globally. The BRICS are systematically creating go arounds from using the US dollar as a means of trade.  This post will discuss near term actions that may or may not be prudent. BUT not being aware is not a good strategy.

 

Let us proceed to stock talk.

Stock Talk

With the Federal Reserve pivot, it may indicate to investors that the inflation encountered is just going to become MORE prevalent. Inflation is a hidden tax as well. The need "to get ahead of the bum's rush " maddens to make more money to overcome the high taxes.

There are stores of value that various groups believe will increase .  The millennials are stuck on one area: Crypto and it's mainstay - Bitcoin.

Now one elephant is as a stock watcher that many of us watched from the sidelines here and there as bitcoin waivered.  In a short span of a month, bitcoin has shot higher into the $43,000 range. There is a "halving" planned in April 2024.  This is where it becomes twice as hard for "the miner's" computers to solve the puzzles that create bitcoin ownership.  The notion is that it is a natural way to prevent dilution of bitcoin value.  This is one thing that makes bitcoin valuable in the minds of crypto enthusiasts. Unlike "fiat" or government currency that is backed only on the good faith of the particular nation.

In a short span, bitcoin related stocks, specifically "the miners" have seen surges some tripling.  At the same time, they are not yet near their previous highs during the bitcoin bubble.  With the halving, bitcoin miners costs rise to get the same bitcoin they mine today by double.  But many are taking steps to increase development capacity by buying more equipment, facilities near energy efficient nuclear power plants.

An elephant is the question of did many of us actually miss the run and will bitcoin heat burn off as whales take gains along the way.  One factor driving crypto is government acceptance.  There is a plan for Blackrock, Wisdom tree and others to start spot ETF bitcoin vehicles.  Applications are submitted to the SEC and adjustments are being worked such cash vs margin requirements.

So, the question of the future is there still time get involved? Or is crypto a passing fad like tulips in Holland that could sell off harshly?

Halving will theoretically increase the value of Bitcoin as long as people still want it.  Bitcoin is NOT like a gold coin you can pick up and hold.  It's notional "bits" on a storage device that can be bought and sold in the ether at on-line brokers like coinbase.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-had-a-surprisingly-great-year-it-still-faces-threats-in-2024-100021572.html

Some symbols:

COIN

Some bitcoin miners:

MARA

RIOT

CLSK

The symbols above have ALREADY broken out considerably.  Could they go even further or create new bag holders?  Only the future can say.

This is where the words maybe "watch" and if ready to actually pull the trigger?   Only "some if any" applies based on your own appetite for risk.  Maybe if "trying to trade" the swing, a trade in some like MARA could work.

Stay tuned for other stocks where elephants in the room are moving such as defense and oil stocks. Topics for another day. 

Defense:  RTX,  LMT

and today, we have an update in Vital Resources, highlighted here as a stock to watch.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vital-energy-acquires-additional-working-220000237.html

Vital Energy (VTLE):

Vital reported quarterly eps:  $5.16 with over 200,000 acres of oil rich property in the basins of America. very high eps, very low pe. 

Comparing eps makes VTLE interesting indeed.  They are reported to have hedged oil in the 70's.  VTLE is a takeover candidate as well with recent consolidations happening by big oil. 

Fundamentals on VTLE seem very strong although the recent market variations have not been pleasant to shareholders. It may be time to bottom fish on some VTLE?

... and holding some METC and METCB

This post will close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor. With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. 

Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
_____________

Paint a rosy picture ride a painted pony...yea ok sure.

 

Market Talk

 

The Fed is pivoting their inflation fighting story to an easing of interest rates.

"US stocks gained on Thursday, as investors continued to celebrate a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve that helped propel the Dow to a new all-time closing high."

Has inflation really subsided?  Things still cost way too much. In other words. prices are not really coming down.  It makes one wonder if the Fed is changing their tune to help the current politicians in office for 2024 elections.  Anybody that is aware of how "they" are selling out America for power and bold face pony dog lying to us would be circumspect. Oh, and don't forget the democrat's line, "the border is secure".  yea sure - 10,000 a day on a bus to anywhere?

Paint a rosy picture and ride a painted pony let the spinning wheels turn.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5jNJd7HRVU

Stock watching today shows the financials bouncing higher. Bank stocks must like it.

I close this post by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor. With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. 

Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
_____________

The buck fifty Cinderella man stock readies for the PRIZE FIGHT OF THE DECADE - in a coming $5 Mil study

 

 

Special Edition

Many have seen the true story movie about "Cinderella man", James J. Braddock. Wow, what a story of a man in the 1930's as a light heavyweight boxer was forced by a hand injury to work on the docks or anywhere he could find work.  He had to turn to welfare for his family and even in humble begging to his former promoters. Here is a scene from the movie.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCKh3Jsge4E

Braddock's hand slowly healed but had to beg again to get back into the arena.  Very few believed he had the fight left in him to make it and he and his family looked to be "down and out".  "Get him a fight scene"...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4fb7N_ICj0

After many years of struggling, Braddock surprised the fight world in a comeback as a contender.  The heavy weight champion of the time was Max Baer, who agreed to fight James and brashly scoffed and mocked him in fight promotions. Indeed, two of Baer's opponents had died from Baer's powerful punches to the head. Many feared for Braddock's life as a light heavy now fighting in the heavyweight range against none other than the brash Max Baer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGU3PRBxQiw

"James J. Braddock fought Max Baer on June 13, 1935, at the Long Island City Bowl in New York City 1. Braddock was a former light heavyweight who had suffered many losses and hardships during the Great Depression. He was a 10-1 underdog going into the fight against Baer, who was known for his heavy-hitting power. However, Braddock pulled off a stunning upset by outboxing and outworking Baer for 15 rounds, winning the world heavyweight championship. "

____

Now WHAT Pray tell does the Cinderella man story have to do with a stock? 

Oncolytics Biotech (ONCY):

Many years conducting clinical trials with their lead immune candidate research, study and trials to advance their lead drug Pelareorep (Pela) as an immune platform to fight the most aggressive forms of cancer such as pancreatic, met-breast, colorectal cancer. "Many years"

Scanning technology is recently showing evidence of Pela treatment causing patient's own immune T fighter cells to duplicate in multitudes and attack and kill cancer. To date, there are two reported Complete responses (CRs) after Pela treatment- patient C1-013 fighting Pancreatic Cancer and another CR against anal cancer in the trial named Goblet.

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_be9de2668869b0cb6e0b8d4461a0c77c/oncolyticsbiotech/db/300/2609/pdf/Oncolytics+Presentation+August.pdf

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oncolytics-announces-anal-cancer-cohort-120000764.html

Recently, the Pan Can organization has changed strategy regarding advancing Pela in the Phase 3 clinical trial.  While the market is knee jerked on the news, backers view the change as possibly beneficial.  The $5 mil sponsored study with Pela immune Fight platform alone combined with a modified Chemo will be a true measure of Pela's immune boosting effectivity along with Chemo that attacks cancer but can be hard to take.  "good cop/ bad cop" approach in the cancer fight.  Studying Pela combined with a modified Chemo with or without a checkpoint inhibitor, if positive, could result in a completely new treatment option for millions of cancer fighters all around the world.  If positive study results, the Pela + Chemo combo could be a multi-$ Billion boon to ONCY's prospects.

To be more precise about the coming fight -- the previous ONCY IR reply:

"This $5 million grant will enable Oncolytics to continue the next stage of its research focused on a clinical trial with Oncolytics’ proprietary reovirus pelareorep in combination with modified FOLFIRINOX chemotherapy with or without an immune checkpoint inhibitor. If results are encouraging, the treatment combination may be advanced to late-stage clinical development through the PanCAN Precision Promise adaptive clinical trial platform."

ONCY is a spec stock in the small cap bio -tech arena under $2 stock.  For readers that can take the variances and whims of knee jerk traders, the Jones view is "stay long" on the Mechanism of Action for fighters of cancer.

Like in the movie -- "Sometimes ya have an instinct , mae. you see something in a fighter ".

Conclusion:  There is a prize fight coming to the world of cancer treatments for a most aggressive Pancreatic Cancer.  In early 2024 the study is planned to use Pela immune treatment with Chemo alone on Pancreatic cancer fighters that sign up.  While exact planning is a little vague at this point, it should start to become clearer within a few months.

As a stock, the Jones report view is that ONCY should be treated as a "spec stock".  However, compelling evidence of a few CRs, immune T - fighter cell scans, and meeting statistical success in the Phase 1/2 trials is raising the instinct to be in "some" not "too much" and stay long as long as the Pela Treatment Mechanism of Action (MOA) continues to be proven.  The small $5 mil study with ONCY working with the Pan Can network could be a dovetail of Pela into a Phase 3 fast-track trial.  If compelling, other options will exist for ONCY as well (like a Bp buyout offer?). If compelling, look for the stock to rise significantly. At the same time, we small investors say - not "too much" on spec stocks.  We know not to put too much skin in any spec stock.  It takes time...

For those that have a few hundred bucks laying around and have "an instinct" that Pela can be proven to play a key role as an immune component of the cancer fight, pick up a hundred or so of ONCY shares and go long as long as Pela is a contender.  Spread the word to like-minded stock watchers.  The Jones target is $60 and higher if Pela treatment proves out in further tests - and the $5 Mil Pan Can sponsored study could be the spark to ignite a rocket.   The real goal is the whole enchilada - to give cancer fighters a new shot of hope.

God bless to the real pancreatic cancer fighters that sign up for the study.

This post will close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor. With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. 

Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
_____________

Ramaco Resources, METC and METCB UPDATE - WoW

 

Stock Talk

 

Ramaco Resources (METC and METCB)  has been highlighted here in several posts as a stock to watch.  It was noted that METC and METCB Ramaco are under recognized and was practically pounding the table as a "some" stock.  Well, we see quite an interesting update today. Fundamentals matter and add the update to the vast rare earths resources found in the Wyoming property.  Ramaco looks back on track in quite an impressive way. I don't need to prove my point today, read the Ramaco update and see what YOU think.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ramaco-resources-provides-third-quarter-204500138.html

Here is a Jones report highlight posted back in July.

http://stockstowatch.blogspot.com/2023/07/market-talk-and-one-company-makes-my.html

I close this post by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor. With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. 

Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
_____________

Circumspect Monday : "some" vs "too much" - and Dry powder.

 

Market Talk

 

Sometimes maybe you just get "a feeling" about things. In the market, it seems that most stocks are just floating about with no clear winners.  Even the pundits come out with their pumps on the flashy or trendy stocks like in artificial intelligence (AI) software.  These pumps can cause the stock to surge a week, but then when you start looking at their financials and the reality of management and high costs and losing in earnings, eps, it points out glaring hyped up prices.  And true to nature of a fickle market, the hyped AI stocks correct as traders sell.

After every post here there is note about watching how things work out to our prognostications.  There are many factors that can waylay outlook.  One important point about trying to look a few months ahead is that we do not get arrogant by putting "too much" on our projections, predictions and hope.  We always say "some" on any one stock and not "too much".

There is one factor that can affect any bullish prediction -  Short sellers. The other is insider greed to take more than the company's results warrant. That goes for any stock.

I will likely  post more on the above later.  For now, looking at the overall market, world events, the fed's calling - it seems time to become more circumspect.  The words "some" not "too much" still resonates here and if "too much" , it may be time to adjust.

Stock Talk

 

 

When things seem more dicey in the overall market, sometimes we use the words "dry powder" .  This does not mean panic and sell all of the stocks we may have "some", but if "too much" ?  Well, each stock watcher has to consider their own situation.  

 

I will wrap this up by pointing to a previous post on a possible "dry powder" vehicle, USFR,  to weather a downturn in a high interest climate.

 

 https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/8396170701207337987/1884679105117177523

I close this post by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor. With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. 

Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
_____________

Does Nerdy stock have the AI hype and juju to catch more momo on fomo?

  Market Talk

The many pundits are taking a recession "off the table" for the remaining part of this year.  Some leave open the distinct possibility for the R word next year. The markets are enjoying a run in the various indices.  Many investors now have a case of fear of missing out or fomo for short.  Perhaps sheer fomo will drive the markets higher for awhile until the next roadblock to stock value prosperity shows up. We will dismiss discussion on roadblocks for the time being. Far be it from moi to be the party pooper in the mix.

 

 

Stock Talk

 

The two buzz words of the time are "Artificial intelligence" or simply AI.  JP Morgan has picked a stock called NERDY or symbol NRDY in the AI space. Is it a fomo buy?

The stock NRDY has already nearly doubled in one month trading at near $5 a share today.  It is in the online teaching space of a multitude of subjects. The previous quarter saw a revenue beat but an earning miss of 4 cents per share for a loss of 21 cents per share. Yet, JP Morgan analysts are endorsing NRDY as a buy now stock.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/j-p-morgan-recommends-2-162844131.html

Does Nerdy stock have the AI hype and juju to catch more momo on fomo?

We will have to watch NRDY stock to see how their 2nd  quarter earnings play out in their coming August 8 report. 

 

I close this post by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor. With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. 

Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
_____________

Market and Stock Talk on BUY fundamentals - METC and METCB. (American treasure?)

 

 Market Talk

The Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell, will report on their decision on interest rates on July 26.  Their goal is to quell inflation from 4% range back down to 2 %. The last print of inflation was the rate of inflation rose about 3 %, slower than previously. The Fed target rate of inflation is about 2%.  That said, the US economy seems to be running "hot" with jobs growth and wages increasing.  Ironically, a slowdown of GDP in China and elsewhere spooked the markets last week.  It seems that in America, for now, many pundits are taking the notion of recession "this year" off the table.  The question, in my view, is how far is the Fed willing to go to try to put a stake in the heart of Dracula known as inflation.

 

The jobs reports have been coming back from pandemic lows and wages have been rising that tends to keep inflation going.  The Fed has already signaled that it could raise rates another 25 % basis points to hike to 5.5%.  Further, they signaled that it could be not one, but two rate hikes to come. We should recall that the Fed's primary mission is to fight inflation.

 

They have to try to slow down the economy and try to make the soft landing of low inflation and full employment. But the casualty of higher rates is typically job cuts and other impacts that can lead to the R word. One impact of higher rates is commodity prices like Gold tend to dip.  This can also happen to crypto - like bitcoin.  As time ticks forward to July 26, it may be interesting to see if  both gold and bitcoin issues start to subside in price.

We will see, said the blind man, as to how this all works out.  On one hand I suspect the Fed does not want the stock market to fly and especially crypto and related stocks because that in of itself can fuel inflation.  I suspect the Federal reserve in addition to raising interest on July 26 will be very tempered in their guidance going forward.  Meanwhile, fear of missing out (FOMO) is driving the equity markets higher  Is that a fool's game following the herd or a smart investment strategy?  We will see what guidance the Federal reserve offers as to their inflation fighting mission on July 26.

 

Stock Talk

 

Let's think about stock fundamentals.

For one, actual earnings matter.  The share price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is an indicator of value in any particular company stock.  The lower the PE in a sector typically means that the stock is performing well and may be undervalued.  Many stocks are priced so high, on hype or hope for example, that they do not even register a PE.   This applies to many crypto based stocks.  The market is pricing up those stocks "on hope" that the companies will meet "expectations" in the future, possibly in years to come.

 

Another metric to determine a good "buy stock" is how the company rewards their investors.  The dividend, if offered, is a key way a good company returns value to loyal shareholders.  Many high priced stocks trading on hype or hope - have ZERO dividend

Today, the focus is a company that meets both metrics of value.  This is not a "hope and hype" company. Their on-going metallic coal operations for producing STEEL are quite profitable.   It seems under recognized at the moment, but in a few months, it all could change when plans for discovered reserves of rare earth elements in the Ramaco Wyoming mine are reported.

Ramaco Resources ( METC): 

Both METC  (Class A) and  METCB (class B) seem undervalued.

There are " bitcoin miners " losing $$ chasing tails and pay no dividend.  Priced many multiples above a real miner like METC  that has a low PE of 4 and a comparatively great eps ($2.25)  and about a 5% dividend - and has a take in possibly the largest American reserve of rare earths that have better substrate quality for processing than competing reserves held by China.  Magnetic rare earth elements are used in all kinds of electronic devices and especially in electric motors to make them more efficient. This extends RANGE in electric vehicles.  Google says:

 "Rare earth metals and the alloys that contain them are used in a variety of high-tech applications, such as wind turbines, electric vehicles, rechargeable batteries, radar systems, and laser crystals. For this reason, they are called "vitamins of modern industry."

 ___

Now this makes  METC a potential American treasure because China dominates the rare earth metal industry .

___

METCB shares were newly formed as a royalty vehicle that will derive revenues from a royalty from METC mining activities. While full details are in process, a back of envelope calculation points to very positive dividend that could be paid to METCB shareholders.

The catalyst for this observer will be what is decided with the magnetic rare earths in the Ramaco Wyoming property. Previous findings pointed to vast rare earths that would potentially be more readily mined requiring less processing.

In the meantime, the revenues and METC earnings from metallic coal at several mines are doing just fine. This is NOT thermal coal, it's coking coal, often called metallic coal, with high carbon used to produce steel from iron ore.

Metallic coal is needed to produce, all kinds and levels of steel ranging from high quality refined steel with special added alloys to pig iron used for example in automotive and other iron based castings. 

Based on the above observations, the Jones report view is that both METC and METCB shares are likely undervalued and represent a good "buy some" at current price ranges. When the magnetic Rare earths come in it should ADD to an already great story and earnings and dividend.

I close this post by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to explore things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor. With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. 

Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
_____________

 

More Market and Stock Talk: Watching Ramaco for rare earths updates is like watching grass grow BUT good divys are in the grass.

 

 Market Talk

The Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell, will report on their decision on interest rates on July 26.  Their goal is to quell inflation from 4% range back down to 2 %.  Good luck with that.  Meanwhile, the jobs reports have been coming back from pandemic lows and wages have been rising that tends to keep inflation going.  The Fed has already signaled that it could raise rates another 25 % basis points to hike to 5.5%.  Further, they signaled that it could be not one, but two rate hikes to come. We should recall that the Fed's primary mission is to fight inflation.

 

They have to try to slow down the economy and try to make the soft landing of low inflation and full employment. But the casualty of higher rates is typically job cuts and other impacts that can lead to the R word. One impact of higher rates is commodity prices like Gold tend to dip.  This can also happen to crypto - like bitcoin.  As time ticks forward to July 26, it may be interesting to see if  both gold and bitcoin issues start to subside in price.

 

Stock Talk

 

Focusing more on small cap stocks than larger cap stocks and definitely stocks under $100 and many under $10 with speculative possibilities for much higher.  Due to the speculative nature, I use the word "some".  Too much of any risky stock can really hurt. With that said the entire market is a gamble.  Its a matter of relativity.

Stocks on Watch:

Ramaco Resources ( METC): 

Both METC  (Class A) and  METCB (class B) seem undervalued.

There are " bitcoin miners " losing $$ chasing tails and pay no dividend.  Priced many multiples above a real miner like METC  that has comparatively a great eps ($2.25)  and dividend  and has a take in possibly the largest American reserve of rare earths that have better substrate quality for processing than competing reserves held by China.

METCB shares were newly formed as a royalty vehicle that will derive revenues from a 20% royalty from METC mining activities. While full details are in process, a back of envelope calculation points to very positive dividend that could be paid to METCB shareholders.

The catalyst for this observer will be what is decided with the magnetic rare earths in the Ramaco Wyoming property. Previous findings pointed to vast rare earths that would potentially be more readily mined requiring less processing. In the meantime, the revenues and earnings from metallic coal at several mines are doing just fine. This is NOT thermal coal, it's coking coal often called metallic coal with carbon used (update) to produce steel.  Metallic coal is needed to produce all kinds and levels of steel ranging from high quality refined steel with special added alloys to pig iron used for example in automotive and other iron based castings. 

Devon Energy (DVN) :  Current "some"  position on this oil and natural gas company here in America.  Recent cutbacks is Saudi production and higher gasoline prices at the pump keep me holding some DVN.  We see the share price today moving into the 50's. If DVN can hold the 50's it could be on its way back to higher values .

USFR :  An etf to maybe stash some dry powder for a good interest rate based on US treasury notes. As the fed raises rates , the USFR dividend is based on short term treasury notes.  This may not be a bad place to put some dry powder.  Etf's are not guaranteed vehicles but Wisdom tree has a good track record of staying on point with USFR.  For this report, we always just say maybe "some".

Oncolytics Biotech (ONCY):

ONCY has been under recent quiet accumulation in high volume days. Preparations are  being made for Phase 3 trials on Breast and Pancreatic Cancer treatments. Coordination of a faster trial than fast track is in process as reported in a PR.  ONCY has some potential to explode higher due the nature of goal in this special Phase 3 Pancreatic cancer trial. But, this is a speculative issue and in the Jones report view " maybe some, but not too much"  if they hit the target some could be enough to enjoy a nice gain without too much risk. While this is speculation, some company like Merck KGaA could be watching ONCY as a potential partner. It fits their profile and other big pharmas may be watching and possibly part of the recent accumulation .

Hepion Phamaceuticals (HEPA):  Both ONCY above and HEPA have a similar profile. they are both at the cusp of starting the final phase 3 of clinical trials. HEPA has a shot with a promising drug to treat liver disease in again, a potential market of $ Billions. Both ONCY and HEPA could benefit from a collaborating partner to help fund pursuit of two promising treatments to help people. HEPA has been pretty quiet.  It's hard to tell what they are up to.

 

I close this post by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to explore things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor. With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. 

Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
_____________

 

More Stock Talk : METC and the Wyoming rare earth's yet to see.

 

 Market Talk

The "future" is like an open book with pages yet to be written.  Two days after the debt ceiling relief rally, we see the economy and the entire world in the same tenuous situation as before the relief rally. Still, the debt debate unresolved would have caused much turmoil and market turbulence.

People that read this site want me to prognosticate a little more on recent stocks posted.  So without further adieu, here a few comments on a stock under watch, METC.

 

Stock Talk

 

Focusing more on small cap stocks than larger cap stocks and definitely stocks under $100 and many under $10 with speculative possibilities for much higher.  Due to the speculative nature, I use the word "some".  Too much of any risky stock can really hurt. With that said the entire market is a gamble.  Its a matter of relativity.

After the relief rally, there may be a lull in bear market sentiment for awhile. However, I can't say we can be sure of anything with the Fed and their inflation fighting mandate.  I will start with METC stock talk and perhaps a few speculative notions, just for fun and caution as well.

METC:  Metallic coal miner for pig iron with a favorable interest rate and "potential" vast reserves of rare earth elements. (see my previous post on an upcoming proxy event).   here is a speculative notion. Suppose these reported vast reserves of rare earth's in the Wyoming mine pan out?   Who would be most interested?  I will suggest that will be the automobile and truck industry because magnetic rare earth's make electric motors more efficient and extend range.  For example, what will happen to METC stock if Elon Musk and Tesla or Ford or GM partnered with METC? This is an open question for the future to reply. 

I just hope China and their "CCP" does not start buying up METC stock to take control like they did with a previous American company, Smithfield foods, to control the pork industry.  A quick google returns this note:

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"Smithfield sold itself to WH Group a decade ago for $4.7 billion, after years of high grain costs and an industry glut of hogs pressured pork producers. At the time, WH Group's acquisition ranked as the biggest Chinese takeover of a U.S. company, prompting concerns in Washington."

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There are several other stocks on watch here.  However, the last thought about a Chinese company getting involved with METC is cause for pause as an American who's own father final mission was on D- Day, June 6, 1944.  I am grateful dad survived his 30th mission that day and was awarded the DFC for his service.  He lived on as the best Dad ever and great American to pass in our home at 102 years young with full soundness of mind and spirit.

"The Distinguished Flying Cross (DFC) is our nation's highest award for extraordinary aerial achievement. As a valor decoration, it ranks fourth in order of precedence, and is awarded to recipients for heroism while participating in an aerial flight."

I close this post by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to explore things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor. With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. 

Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
_____________

 

The Market, War, and more "maybe some, not too much" stock talk too.

 

 Market Talk

The US debt ceiling bill cleared the House of representatives to pass to the Senate.  It should pass and the debt ceiling will be lifted again.  This allows the government to continue kicking the can down the economic road with trillions of dollars in new democrat tax n' spend debt until January 2025.

As far as the economy, the jobs reports may be misleading as higher paying tech firms have been laying off and auto companies like Ford move plants to Mexico. 

The war in Ukraine rages with Russia regularly trying to plummet Ukraine into the dark ages with missile strikes from air, land and sea. For now, the Ukraine defenses have held off many airstrike attacks on the capital, Kyiv, thanks to Patriot surface to air anti- missile systems supplied by America. The Patriot system involves contracts to Raytheon Technologies and Lockheed Martin.  There were reports that the Patriot has downed Russia's highly touted hyper-sonic missile that they try to rain down on civilians. Where is this all going? How will it affect the future?  I wonder how Russian families think about the Putin nightmare taking their sons into the abyss of war. Do they still buy the Russian propaganda bullshit that it's about defense of their "motherland"? not, never was.

 

In closing this market talk, I want to note the world seems to be in a much more dangerous place than ever before. The market shrugs it off (for now).

 

Stock Talk

 

I will try to tie up some loose ends of recent previous stock posts. Overall, I remain a little stock cautious and more in dry powder. 

 

I bought a few some shares of Ramaco Resources, METC to see how the latest findings of Magnetic REE mine out. Now, since buying some in early May, I recently find out that there is a proxy proposal that somewhat changes the structure of METC shares.  It seems a little confusing but, if approved, there would be a new class B of shares with one class B share distributed for every five shares of METC held on record before the close of business on May 12, 2023.

https://www.pressviewer.com/profiles/investor/NewsPrint.asp?v=6&b=2352&ID=117996&m=rl&g=1126

Perhaps the recent drop is because the date of record is passed so the share levels reflect that new buyers would not participate in 1 for 5 class B distribution.  I would prefer that if METC intends to move forward that they extend the date of the 1 for 5 offering into the future closer to the time of actually extracting the newly discovered rare earth elements.  (cautionary note: I hardly ever get what I prefer in stocks)

 

As closing thoughts on METC,  at the present share level the dividend is over 5%.  Should the rare earth findings prove to be mine-able, the earnings of METC could outperform the overall market.    Magnetic rare earths are used to make electric motors more efficient in high heat conditions. An example is that rare earth elements in electric vehicles extends their range in distance to travel on a single charge.

 

For me, it's the major magnetic rare earth elements discovered in their already working mine in Wyoming.   I posted before that I am NOT in favor of mandated electric vehicles and the forced extinction of the internal combustion engine. However, recent government mandates are pushing industry to mass production of ev's.  And, America is sorely behind our adversary, China.  A major find of Magnetic REE in the Ramaco Mine belt seems like a potential American treasure. 

 

The METC proposed proxy change will be discussed on June12 at a shareholder meeting (see above link).   I will let the market decide how the changes are to be perceived and voted on. I am holding a few shares, but a "not too much" position. There are speculative features about the rare earths being reported and I am unsure how the market will view this new proxy charter being proposed.

I close this post by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor. With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. 

Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
_____________

 

Ramaco Resources, Inc finds major Magentic REE in Wyoming mine AND raises dividend to 4.6 % . (updated Trading notes)

  Market Talk

 

When we as small investors listen to the pundits on the stock market,  we will get a multitude of opposite and diverse views.  If dwelling into this world of investing some say take the long view, some say stay nimble, try to trade the ups and downs with "some" while maintaining "dry powder" in tumultuous markets and times that we live in today.  With higher interest rate returns in various "dry powder"  investments , many people have been moving money out of traditional savings accounts in banks.  If in stocks, many pundits will say "be selective".  But the times are changing fast and what was considered "safe" may not be so in coming days.  This is where the gamble lies, in just what we "select".   With this preamble to stocks, here are a few stocks of interest in my view.

 

Stock Talk

 

My previous post highlighted a business line story from a Warren Buffet outlet on stock METC  and finding of snificant rare earth elements in an existing metal  

Ramaco resources, Inc operates, develops and sells metallurgical coal.  This type of coal is used for making steel, not heating as in thermal coal.  Now if a major find of magnetic rare earth elements is reported in the strata of an existing American mine, already approved?  I will leave it to the reader to consider if opportunity is knocking on METC.

 

"NETL analysis shows that core samples from the Brook Mine represent highly promising, world-class "MREE and HREE accumulations. These deposits contain these valuable REEs on par with conventional REE deposits, but with much less of the low-value lanthanum and cerium that must be removed by separations. Based on this data, the Brook Mine could rank among the more promising deposits on a worldwide basis, including Chinese HREE deposits."

 

Today , we see that METC raised the dividend to a 4.6 % yield .

 Here is an article from "Simply Wall Street".

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ramaco-resources-nasdaq-metc-increasing-120922171.html

 

The article goes on to describe that the dividend will be on June 15. It goes on to highlight risk such as projected earnings decrease.   My one critique of the article is that it fails to mention the potential of  major find of Magnetic REE in an existing mine in Wyoming.  A major fault of pursuing EV's in America is that it makes our future even more dependent on adversary communist China.  If there is a major find of Magenetic REE in an existing approved mine in AMERICA, I want to be IN some to see how it works out.  And with the  increased METC 4.6% dividend sweetens my feeling of "some" METC.

 

 

 

Major Deposits of Magnetic Rare Earth Elements Discovered at Ramaco Resources Mine in Wyoming Wed, May 3, 2023 at 4:15 PM EDT

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/major-deposits-magnetic-rare-earth-201500636.html

Trading Notes:

 

RIOT:  sold. Bitcoin volatility on trading whims of "whales" and faulty brokers causes too much volatility and it can't seem to hold gains. The miners are dependent on the bitcoin price levels

Devon (DVN) : watching DVN.  Frankly, many people in my generation do not want electric vehicles forced on us by politicians. Many may support natural evolution to electric vehicles as  the infrastructure may grows to support it.  America' s natural gas burns cleaner than Russian natural gas.  It could be further used in generating cleaner electricity to supply the electrical grid  in America and Europe as well.

 

On a trading note, I have been successfully swing trading Devon.  I reported I sold in the 70's for a gain.  Now in the lower 50's, the 10 %  dividend and fact that I think oil and natural gas are not as dead as currently chosen politicians want because there is a high need for oil to heat homes and many people don't want Ev's with range anxiety.   Update:  I was feeling bullish on buying back 50 shares of DVN with the money from the RIOT sale.  That was a bad move. DVN decreased their dividend rate to over 5% but it was over 10%.  Still a great divy by most standards but the stock is suffering in a sell off. I  let it go again and see how the dust settles. Meanwhile, Bitcoin rallies and the miners are too.  I made a short term bad move so its more in dry powder.  The bitcoin move seems like an anti- fiat currency move based in the bad politics related to the debt ceiling and the tax and spend ones.

 

USFR : Dry powder in some etf, USFR,  on dividend return in short term treasury notes

I close this post by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor. With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. 

Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
_____________

A large find on Rare Earth Elements in Wyoming? METC

 

 Market Talk

The revised GDP data shows that the economy did indeed slow back when the politicians  said we were not in a recession.  And inflation is rising. Should we just get used to it?  The market is thinking the Fed is done raising interest rates for awhile.  Maybe so because it has gotten to the point where everyday people are starting to look for better return rates than the typical bank offers in a savings account.  Couple that with bank runs and it adds a bit of risk to the banking industry as evident in recent falling share prices. There has been a flight, at least in the short run, to what is perceived as a "safer" or steady return of higher rate instruments such as the etf mentioned here, USFR.

 

Stagflation is when the economy is in a recession and yet inflation persists.   Perhaps we should be more concerned about our adversary's planning world dominance.  Maybe enjoy the Philadelphia 76ers play the Boston Celtics and forget about it today. But remember at the voting booth. Oh, "they" seem to want to eliminate the booth. 

 

Stock Talk

 

The market is a dicey proposition.  I won't bother to opine on prognostication today. However, here is an interesting tidbit that was posted on the business wire a few days ago on Ramaco Resources, Inc (METC).   Magnetic rare earth minerals have been controlled by China with mining interests all over in Africa and other such places.  A large find here in America in an existing coal mine could help us make a stand in the growing call for magnetic rare earth elements for electric motors. 

 

 

Major Deposits of Magnetic Rare Earth Elements Discovered at Ramaco Resources Mine in Wyoming Wed, May 3, 2023 at 4:15 PM EDT

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/major-deposits-magnetic-rare-earth-201500636.html

I close this post by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change the in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor. With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. 

Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
_____________

Still market pensive but here's some opining on "if", "feel" and "some" in stocks.

 

 Market Talk

This is an update to yesterday's post.  Sometimes a small investor who watches the market and stocks and tries to gauge the signs, just gets a bad feeling. I have it. Is it just Agida or a pensive feeling based on facts that point to economic downturn ahead?

Fed tightening typically will put pressure on hard assets like Gold and the newer perceived ether asset known as "crypto".   Stocks can also fall because raising rates is intended to slow the economy with a side effect of unemployment to do it.  An ironic effect is unemployment can make government spending increase as benefits need to be distributed.

 

Many pundits think the  Fed is going to raise interest rates at least one more time to combat inflation. The market will still look for the tone of the Fed to support a soft landing scenario for the economy. But a very real implication of a cool off is possible unemployment and recession where people tighten spending on services, travel and retail consumer goods including automobiles and housing.

The above opining points to a full blown recession coming.  Will that actually happen?  Who actually knows for sure? nobody!  But I am noting how I feel TODAY about a possible scenario that I think the market may not like and stocks could suffer in share price.

 

Other Market happenings:

 

Some Tech stocks are up today on earnings.  Ok, they bounce. Its the market folks. Up today, down the next.

 

Longer term, the democrats are on a jihad against the internal combustion engine (ICE) in the name of climate change.  I am not a believer in forced mandates in this area for several reasons.  The "dems"  are pushing a revolution rather than an evolution and trying to take away freedom of choice.  The electrical grid cannot support it.  California already had rolling blackouts.  The agenda gives all the power to a global adversary that seem to want to either enslave us or destroy us, namely the CCP.  In a broader sense, I would not want to own ANY company that deals with mainland China with their companies tied to the CCP.  If you do some research into the masses of hyper-sonic missiles with the speed of OVER 2 miles per second and their allowed spy balloons over nuclear missile silos in Montana, maybe American's would  start to wake up.  Yet, many in America are in love with such items as their Apple phones and tic toc app, all from China.  Not to mention our reliance on so many other items. This is not a bash on hard working Chinese people but their government is using capitalism against us to eventually control us if we don't wake up.  Dealing with China seems an unfair proposition for Americans as the companies from China buy up farms near military bases and companies like Smithfield foods that process our pork supply.  Watch out for the CCP folks, they are not a friend. The CCP have honored Russia and Putin as their "best friend".

 

Stock Talk

 

My previous post highlighted a few small starting positions that I have dabbled in.   I had stepped to the sideline on DVN and traded some RIOT.  In light of more bad mouthing of oil and gas by the dems in government and the recent sell off of crypto by the whales, the stocks have me concerned for a further sell off.  Reading the charts had me pensive.

Today's Update:  After a few days of a bitcoin swoon after the $30 K level, today  bitcoin is coming back with a vengeance up over $2,400 at this point today to $29,700. What is going on with bitcoin?  That is an impressive comeback and has something to do with short covering as well.  I am holding some RIOT because the company has amassed over 7,000 bitcoins and reports an additional $230 Million in cash. The gamble is on bitcoin price.  If bitcoin can get past the $30 k it seems plausible that Riot could fly due to their leveraged bitcoin holdings.  I'll be watching to see if the "whales" dump it again or more buyers jump back in bitcoin to surge it to the $35 k level. Notice the "if" in these words and when you hear the word "if" - beware.  That little world "if" can be a very dangerous word when talking stocks. My way is to just say "some" shares.  There's another word - "feel".  "If", "feel" are speculative words and my antidote in trading is maybe "some" but not "too much".   Too much can really really hurt when things go sour but some can be nice when it works out.

Dry Powder:  Lastly, as a place to park "some" dry powder?  USFR.  I posted on this previously. It should not deviate much from the $50 range as an etf but it is based on short term treasury notes and the interest is currently paying over 4%. Still, I would not put it all in an etf - maybe "some"  though.

I close this post by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change the in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor. With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. 

Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
_____________