Market Talk
This is an update to yesterday's post. Sometimes
a small investor who watches the market and stocks and tries to gauge
the signs, just gets a bad feeling. I have it. Is it just Agida or a
pensive feeling based on facts that point to economic downturn ahead?
Fed
tightening typically will put pressure on hard assets like Gold and the
newer perceived ether asset known as "crypto". Stocks can also fall
because raising rates is intended to slow the economy with a side effect
of unemployment to do it. An ironic effect is unemployment can make
government spending increase as benefits need to be distributed.
Many pundits think the Fed is going to raise interest rates at
least one more time to combat inflation. The market will still look for
the tone of the Fed to support a soft landing scenario for the economy.
But a very real implication of a cool off is possible unemployment and
recession where people tighten spending on services, travel and retail
consumer goods including automobiles and housing.
The
above opining points to a full blown recession coming. Will that
actually happen? Who actually knows for sure? nobody! But I am noting
how I feel TODAY about a possible scenario that I think the market may
not like and stocks could suffer in share price.
Other Market happenings:
Some Tech stocks are up today on earnings. Ok, they bounce. Its the market folks. Up today, down the next.
Longer term, the
democrats are on a jihad against
the internal combustion engine (ICE) in the name of climate change. I
am not a believer in forced mandates in this area for several reasons.
The "dems" are pushing a revolution rather than an evolution and trying to
take away freedom of choice. The electrical grid cannot support it.
California already had rolling blackouts. The agenda gives all the
power to a global adversary that seem to want to either enslave us or
destroy us, namely the
CCP. In a broader sense, I would not want to own ANY company that deals
with mainland China with their companies tied to the CCP. If you do
some research into the masses of hyper-sonic missiles with the speed of
OVER 2 miles per second and their allowed spy balloons over nuclear
missile silos in Montana, maybe American's would start to wake up.
Yet, many in America are in love with such items as their Apple phones
and tic toc app, all from China. Not to mention our reliance on so many
other items. This is not a bash on hard working Chinese people but
their government is using capitalism against us to eventually control us
if we don't wake up. Dealing with China seems an unfair proposition
for Americans as the companies from China buy up farms near military
bases and companies like Smithfield foods that process our pork supply.
Watch out for the CCP folks, they are not a friend. The CCP have
honored Russia and Putin as their "best friend".
Stock Talk
My
previous post highlighted a few small starting positions that I have
dabbled in. I had stepped to the sideline on DVN and traded
some RIOT. In light of more bad mouthing of oil and gas by the dems in
government and the recent sell off of crypto by the whales, the stocks
have me concerned for a further sell off. Reading the charts had me
pensive.
Today's Update: After a few days of a bitcoin swoon after the $30 K level, today bitcoin is coming back with a vengeance up over $2,400 at this point today to $29,700. What is going on with bitcoin? That is an impressive comeback and has something to do with short covering as well. I am holding some RIOT because the company has amassed over 7,000 bitcoins and reports an additional $230 Million in cash. The gamble is on bitcoin price. If bitcoin can get past the $30 k it seems plausible that Riot could fly due to their leveraged bitcoin holdings. I'll be watching to see if the "whales" dump it again or more buyers jump back in bitcoin to surge it to the $35 k level. Notice the "if" in these words and when you hear the word "if" - beware. That little world "if" can be a very dangerous word when talking stocks. My way is to just say "some" shares. There's another word - "feel". "If", "feel" are speculative words and my antidote in trading is maybe "some" but not "too much". Too much can really really hurt when things go sour but some can be nice when it works out.
Dry Powder: Lastly, as a place to park "some" dry powder? USFR.
I posted on this previously. It should not deviate much from the $50
range as an etf but it is based on short term treasury notes and the
interest is currently paying over 4%. Still, I would not put it all in an etf - maybe "some" though.
I
close this post by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any
particular day may change the in the future days to come. That is why
we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.
But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do
things. If you think too deep about world events and the recent
alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor. With all
the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this
post.
Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.
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This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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