Monday, October 2, 2023

Circumspect Monday : "some" vs "too much" - and Dry powder.

 

Market Talk
 

Sometimes maybe you just get "a feeling" about things. In the market, it seems that most stocks are just floating about with no clear winners.  Even the pundits come out with their pumps on the flashy or trendy stocks like in artificial intelligence (AI) software.  These pumps can cause the stock to surge a week, but then when you start looking at their financials and the reality of management and high costs and losing in earnings, eps, it points out glaring hyped up prices.  And true to nature of a fickle market, the hyped AI stocks correct as traders sell.

After every post here there is note about watching how things work out to our prognostications.  There are many factors that can waylay outlook.  One important point about trying to look a few months ahead is that we do not get arrogant by putting "too much" on our projections, predictions and hope.  We always say "some" on any one stock and not "too much".

There is one factor that can affect any bullish prediction -  Short sellers. The other is insider greed to take more than the company's results warrant. That goes for any stock.

I will likely  post more on the above later.  For now, looking at the overall market, world events, the fed's calling - it seems time to become more circumspect.  The words "some" not "too much" still resonates here and if "too much" , it may be time to adjust.


Stock Talk
 
 
When things seem more dicey in the overall market, sometimes we use the words "dry powder" .  This does not mean panic and sell all of the stocks we may have "some", but if "too much" ?  Well, each stock watcher has to consider their own situation.  
 
I will wrap this up by pointing to a previous post on a possible "dry powder" vehicle, USFR,  to weather a downturn in a high interest climate.
 

I close this post by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor. With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. 

Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.
This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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