What is your "Dry Powder" in ? a look at USFR .

 Market Talk

The overall stock market is held hostage by perceived events of the future. The playground is filled with Cnbc like traders riding a seesaw of opinion on inflation vs recession and the Fed as the monitor.  How interest rate control will affect the market and the hopeful "soft landing" scenario remains to be seen.

 

Geopolitical global factors are playing out that I will just call disturbing for the purpose of this market and stock post. When we use the word "disturbing" it is quite an understatement with the backdrop of WAR and potential future war-like behavior in the world.

 

How you may ask , do these views affect "stock picking"?  

 Stock Talk

With the above market view , it seems that parking some assets out of the overall market may be prudent.  But what is way to get a good return based on the relative higher interest rates?  Perhaps parking some cash in an ETF with the ability to get in and out in a flexible way and still take advantage of high interest rates is something to think about.   The ETF with symbol USFR may be a decent place to park some dry powder. It is based on variable interest rates of US treasury notes. As  long as Wisdom tree manages the ETF according to the plan goals, it should return a better interest rate than many accumulating every month.  With the variable feature, maybe look forward to an interest rate of over 2% to even over 4% at present.

 USFR

"Fund Overview
The WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury Fund seeks to track the price and yield
performance, before fees and expenses, of an index that measures the performance of
the market for floating rate public obligations of the U.S. Treasury"

https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/-/media/us-media-files/documents/resource-library/fund-fact-sheets/fixed-income/wisdomtree-factsheet-usfr-1648.pd

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Devon (DVN) is on my radar but ...

 Market Talk

I've posted my sentiment on the market .  Anybody interested can read my last few posts. So call me a malcontent, I don't care.  This is a snip-it of my sentiment.

The market is like a fickle two- headed beast.  Anybody that keeps up with world events and our adversaries knows how dangerous the global situation has become both to the economy and peace. It feels like the world in on the brink of war exacerbated by Russian aggression to the Ukraine. China and their communist party continue building out hyper-sonic missiles and have been acting very friendly to Russia against the US. Meanwhile, Taiwan wants to live in peace and be left alone.  But alas, China acts aggressive to an independent notion in Taiwan.

The inflation vs recession seesaw keeps teetering back n' forth with the Federal reserve as the playground monitor. The market is in a trading mode. But it has the feel of biding time for the next shoe to drop.

With the above preamble the following is a peasant's view of some stocks that I am watching for possible gain.

Stock Talk

Sometimes to get the real feel of a sector, it makes a difference if you put some skin in the game.  I had previously traded some shares of Devon Energy (DVN) in the 70's for a small gain.  I posted that what good is a 10 % dividend if the stock drops below that much. Well, good ol' Spider Jones here was correct on that call. The DVN stock has dropped to the 48 to 52 range all the way down from the 70's where I dumped it!  That is a big fall and I am glad I missed it.

Now what is in store for DVN now stock watchers ask plaintively.  To answer this question requires a crystal ball into the future price of oil and natural gas.  Here is a snip-it from Devon's website.

"The company's portfolio of oil and gas properties provides stable, environmentally responsible production and a platform for future growth. Devon's fourth quarter 2021 daily production was approximately 300,000 barrels of oil, more than 150,000 barrels of natural gas liquids and about 940 million cubic feet of natural gas."

Well, for today my crystal ball is a little cloudy.  I will say a look at the chart is talking to me that if a looming recession takes hold DVN stock could easily fade to the 30's.  But on the other hand if demand continues and oil and nat gas prices remain stable and move higher, DVN could see the $60 range.  In short, I don't know and doubt if anybody actually knows for sure. DVN is on my radar, that's all though.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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What has changed since my last post on the future? - a ship of fools.

 

Market Talk

It's been awhile since I've posted here. This is because things are still LOUSY in the markets and the geopolitical front all around with war still raging.  

If you want an update, read my prior post on the future and see that nothing has changed except things are getting WORSE not better with two banks not being able to cover deposit withdrawals and the recent Federal reserve  actions to cover the bank's mismanagement.

It all makes it look like morons and greed are the ruling class instead of adults in charge.   However, I will not be surprised after the market shakeout that the Fed presents a view that they are still running the economy show. However, the days of pay no attention to the man behind the curtain are wearing thin on overall investor confidence.  Yet, in the  days between each crisis,  traders scurry to pick up "bargains".   yikes.

Stock Talk

The market seems like a ship of fools at the moment with thieves and scallywags at the helm.  Taking a break from it for now.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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A few musings on the World, The economy AND the future, as of TODAY . - and some "Stock Talk".

 

Market Talk

Today's stock market is a conundrum. It is basically a balance between various looks into of the future, perhaps in about a six-month time outlook.  Trying to foresee or predict can be like looking into parallel universes with different outcomes in each world.

For example, some analysts say we are in a recession right now having had two negative quarters of GDP.  This has always been the definition of a recession.  However, the ruling democrats are masters at changing words to meet the impression they want to portray. In short, political motives are questionable.   In calling the current situation, I was leaning to stagflation where inflation increases, and yet economic growth slows.  I think the economy may be headed into stagflation.  However, recently unemployment has fallen and inflation has slightly subsided making the stock market bulls feel that the Federal reserve may lighten up on interest rate hikes.  So far, the Fed seems determined to continue rate hiking to slow the economy enough to bring down still high inflation. 

So why is unemployment recently decreasing?  People are finally taking lower paying jobs to try to survive the higher prices everywhere. Energy costs being passed on to the consumer is one major cause.  Greed and need are other reasons.  But recently, fuel prices, although high, have slightly subsided.  This is because the economy is being slowed as is the goal of the Federal reserve.  

The collective market has been taking what they like to think of as "green shoots" of positivity as taking the indices higher.   I remain skeptical because when you look at some big tech companies, we see huge layoffs in the making.  For example, Amazon is laying off thousands from the tech division of Alexa.  Ford is another laying off thousands because they are trying to save for the coming slowdown and move to electric vehicles.  The reader may ask where is Ford moving?  Ford is moving from Ohio to Mexico! Should Americans be outraged?  Ford is laying off THOUSANDS of Americans and taking the jobs to other countries!

And yet they expect Americans to buy Fords?   One could ask, why don't the millions of migrants trekking through Mexico to breach into the US just stay in Mexico to assume the jobs that our industry is moving there? 

So many more examples exist of what would be considered high tech coding and manager jobs being eliminated as in twitter's case. They are making those remaining WORK harder. This will lead to discontentment in the work force.

As the Federal reserve continues to raise interest rates what is going to happen to construction jobs?  So just WHO is going to be able to afford buy these Ford ev's made outside of America? Yea, the Dems will offer more incentives, creating more inflation and forcing the Fed to raise rates higher, yet causing a further slowdown in America.  Are you starting to see a pattern?  The Dems seem to have an unbalanced agenda on many policies to the detriment of America. 

The impact of the Russian aggression on the Ukraine hits hard.  The "Putin Russians" involved in supporting this unjust war and crime on humanity are either evil or misguided, or both. The pain being inflicted on both families of dead Russian soldiers that were drafted and Ukrainian defenders AND Ukraine civilians is horrible.

Putin and his cronies are determined to try to bomb Ukraine infrastructure as winter approaches. NATO stands behind Ukraine with the US a leader in the supply of defensive means to give Ukraine a chance to defend themselves. God Bless the defenders but where this all winds up has yet to play out.  I have one hope that the Russian people will rise up and mass protest the war against Ukraine. But alas, such hope gets dim when I read the sentiment of many inside feel they need to win to protect their "motherland".  Why don't they see that there was no real threat to them in the first place and if they just STOP and go back, peace could rain down on them instead of possible nuclear WAR that continues to linger in veiled threats by some Russians in the Kremlin.  The pundits sometimes downplay nuclear war, but it is there like an elephant wearing a dress in the room.   And yet no end is in sight. A harsh winter is coming.  Just give it up poopin' Putin! But they don't (yet)- sigh.

What does all this have to with the stock market you may ask.   With the ensemble of concurrent happenings in the world and our country, paint me market cautious and bearish on the overall market in the near term.  Some stocks may stand out as winners, even in a bear market.

Stock Talk

Here are two stocks on my radar with interesting prospects.  I also note the word "speculation" and use caution in the words "some" not "too much", if any or not.

• VERU - I have posted on this one. Currently underwater in some shares but holding on the basis of lives saved. Does the FDA care? "tbd" says the shadow. BUT VERU has expanded viral indications planned.

• RIGL - Am I crazy to wonder about a penny stock currently under $1 about to be delisted?  The other day, news of FDA approval of treatment that brought a Complete remission of a form of acute Leukemia. RIGL has been a beleaguered stock, under a buck. Perhaps this FDA approval to treat about 1,000 people in the US will capture interest to make a comeback of over a buck a share? RIGL is flirting with a buck but -tbd, only the shadow knows.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rigel-rigl-fda-nod-blood-174

My recent findings on energy stocks?  I had purchased 50 shares of OXY and DVN.  Sometimes, to get the feel of a particular market, it seems like you have to put some "skin in the game".   I learned that energy stocks in oil and gas, in the current economic climate, are just as dicey as the rest of the market. If an oil sheik in Saudi Arabia sneezes about supply or the pundits speak of $60 oil from Russia, the stocks knee jerk all over the place.  Reactions like that remind me of toppy markets and I got out with a small gain. Looking back at recent action, I'm glad I did for now anyway.  That said, DVN is paying quite a good dividend, over 7 %. But the way the stock knee jerks if falls 10 % what good is that?

Stay tuned if you enjoy this Jones report.  It's worth every penny you pay. (that's a joke, ha). This site is just for fun. Somebody please let me know when the fun begins. Maybe when the world gets back to "normal".  What is normal anymore??? Ok , sign me out folks! Thank you for reading.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Stock Talk: "Risk OFF"

 

Market Talk

Hello friends:

It's time for a brief update on the market and stocks. 

I was bearish before and I still am.  Things are seemingly getting worse rather than better.  I posted this before and don't see progress.

Let's review the pros and cons about the current world:

It is a costly outcome to life, liberty and world economy with Russia continuing their aggression on Ukraine.  Russia is losing in the conventional warfare arena and losing ground in eastern Ukraine that was illegally annexed by Putin.  But alas, Putin has put a new general in charge that has no morals towards civilians. It can only get uglier before this is over and the world's nuclear clock is ticking closer to midnight.

Inflation is raging as the Fed continues to try to fight it by raising interest rates.

Recession looms as some big companies like Ford and Intel are starting to lay off workers in the US. This points to a possible period of stagflation in the weather forecast.

Stocks are continuing to slowly fade in market value as I projected here months ago.

Where is the good news?

One good thing that happened was NASA successfully altered the trajectory of an asteroid.  

The rest of the good news is how you live your life and you decide what is good news for you.

The word is basically in a wartime status.  The market pundits have mixed predictions about the coming economy.  

The democrats in power want to ignore the definition of a recession, two consecutive quarters of falling GDP.

So, what does this all mean to me about the stock market today?

I am staying defensive in stocks with dry powder.  

Stock Talk

Risk OFF.

Dry Powder for awhile.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Three stocks to Watch: Energy: OXY and DVN and just ONE Biotech: VERU has a coming BLOCKBUSTER?

 Market Talk

The market will have many headwinds as the winter approaches.  Unless we are very selective, it may be better to just forego trading stocks and stash the cash.  However, inflation is eroding the value of cash!   So, what to do?

The remaining part of this post will cover some stocks of interest.

Stock Talk

When the Democrats took control, they declared a war on the oil and gas industry.

After WW II large suburbs in America were built to provide homes for the veterans as they built new lives and families in the new peace in the aftermath of their saving the entire world from tyranny.  These homes are still present and use heating oil in oil burning furnaces.  Since they took office, it now costs over $1500 to fill a typical oil tank for part of the winter.  Before they took office it was less than half that price.

The following oil and gas companies have seen a good stock rise over the past year.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)

Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)

The democrats do not seem to have a clue about the impact of rising heating oil costs in America, let alone the harsh cold winter expected in Europe. Their Oil and gas war is not a balanced approach to energy independence of America.

I am watching the above two stocks and have initiated a buy some on both OXY and DVN. I suspect earnings will outperform and am in a few "some" shares of each to see if the stocks will continue higher.  Warren Buffet is also in OXY bigtime.

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A Biotech stock to watch:   VERU

As far as other stocks, I am in some of VERU on the hope that their lead drug, "Sabi", will become a Blockbuster to treat and save lives of Covid patients that suffer from Acute respiratory distress (ARD).

VERU will do well if the key drug "Sabi" is selected by the FDA to gain Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to treat hospital patients in acute respiratory distress (ARD).  There has been a slight delay in the Advisory meeting to address the relatively small patient population of the phase 3 clinical trial that was stopped on apparent overwhelming efficacy and safety of saving lives of covid patients in ARD.  The FDA advisory committee will weigh in on the EUA decision on November 9.   An FDA nod towards EUA would start VERU's "Sabi" as a coming BLOCKBUSTER to treat many, even beyond Covid. Cancer trials are in progress with Sabi as well 

All I can say is with the FDA one never can actually know what the outcome will be, especially when small Pharma is involved. 

In summary:

•  Energy :   OXY and DVN

•  Biotech :  VERU

Maybe some of the above will outperform, even in a volatile market, and merit watching.  I'm in 50 shares each of OXY and DVN and some of VERU long.  I see VERU as having a coming Blockbuster in Sabi with my "some" shares.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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A Jones Report Update ...Thursday October 13, 2022

 

Market Talk

It's been awhile since I've posted my musings with a bearish sentiment on the overall market.  

Let's review the pros and cons about the current world:

It is a costly outcome to life, liberty and world economy with Russia continuing their aggression on Ukraine.  Russia is losing in the conventional warfare arena and losing ground in eastern Ukraine that was illegally annexed by Putin.  But alas, Putin has put a new general in charge that has no morals towards civilians. It can only get uglier before this is over and the world's nuclear clock is ticking closer to midnight.

Inflation is raging as the Fed continues to try to fight it by raising interest rates.

Recession looms as some big companies like Ford and Intel are starting to lay off workers in the US. This points to a possible period of stagflation in the weather forecast.

Stocks are continuing to slowly fade in market value as I projected here months ago.

Where is the good news?

One good thing that happened was NASA successfully altered the trajectory of an asteroid.  

The rest of the good news is how you live your life and you decide what is good news for you.

The word is basically in a wartime status.  The market pundits have mixed predictions about the coming economy.  

The democrats in power want to ignore the definition of a recession, two consecutive quarters of falling GDP.

So, what does this all mean to me about the stock market today?

I am staying defensive in stocks with dry powder.  However, sometimes fence sitting is just a way to bide time when uncertainty and economic signals are sketchy.  For example, will the Federal Reserve be able to mastermind the mythical "soft landing" of the economy by raising interest rates to counter raging inflation?  Or is a recession or worse looming around the corner of time.  Will the country be forced into stagflation with both recession AND inflation at the same time?

The market had enjoyed a bullish run in a bear market. I think we are still in a bear market and favor dry powder (cash) till the dust settles.  The Fed is trying to strengthen the US dollar and taking actions that could cause some pain in the markets.

Stock Talk

I feel the need to refrain on stock talk at the moment.  Except to say that a view of just "some" of a particular stock may be an approach to consider in a dollar cost average mindset.

Why Refrain ?  because of the dynamic:

 "Something always happens" 

Sometimes, it may be better just stand aside due to higher risk and uncertainty.

I had previously posted about the one stock, VERU, that may do well if the key drug "Sabi" is selected by the FDA to gain Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to treat hospital patients in acute respiratory distress (ARD).  There has been a slight delay in the Advisory meeting to address the relatively small patient population of the phase 3 clinical trial that was stopped on apparent overwhelming efficacy and safety of saving lives of covid patients in ARD.  The FDA advisory committee will weigh in on the EUA decision on November 9.  

All I can say is with the FDA one never can actually know what the outcome will be, especially when small Pharma is involved. 

I hold a small position of VERU with hope that the reason the Independent Data monitoring Committee (IDMC) halted the trial will stand up and EUA on Sabi will happen as winter Flu season approaches along with the new Covid variants that scientists say are coming.

While institutions are seemingly holding VERU, a small VERU position may be warranted for us little people, but I can't say that a large position is smart because with the FDA decisions and stocks ...

 "something always happens"

VERU remains a stock to watch on my list because the European Union has Sabi up for expedited EMA review as well.  If Europe somehow beat the FDA to give Sabi the nod, I would think about doubling down on my VERU holdings.  But alas, we have not seen such indications as of this posting.

Maybe just "some" VERU, depending on the appetite for risk because "if" VERU does gain EUA on Sabi, it's off to the races as a stock to hold long. VERU would rocket on EMA or EUA in my viewfinder. 

The other adage is that "things change"

Until then, keep on keepin' on and check in here for the next update as things change.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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