Growing cautious on the market and laying low on "spec stocks".

 

Market Talk
 

This is a volatile market indeed.  Things change fast.   One week, the Fed is talking inflation, the next week Covid fear takes over, then the fear is lifted and what do we have?  A herky-jerky market with stocks whipsawing all over.  While the market has bullish days, there are concerning macro events that are starting to play out, namely Russia massing troops on the Ukraine front. 

Stock Talk

One stock that may be an accumulate or a buy some here and there in my view is Ford (F).   Currently, I favor a small position with a dollar cost average mindset for a possible long position. The following IBD report is a nice summary of Ford in the market.

https://www.investors.com/research/ford-stock-buy-now/?src=A00220

 

I am laying low on spec stocks and holding more dry powder.  Why? because it seems like when ya start to think a spec stock is going to breakout, they pull something that goes counter to share value such as share dilution, or something happens that is not favorable to a spec position. 

 

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Herky- jerky market, watching Ford and ... (update - CleanSpark is off my Stock radar)

 

Market Talk
 

This is a volatile market indeed.  Things change fast.   One week, the Fed is talking inflation, the next week Covid fear takes over, then the fear is lifted and what do we have?  A herky-jerky market with stocks whipsawing all over.  While the market has bullish days, there are concerning macro events that are starting to play out, namely Russia massing troops on the Ukraine front. 

Stock Talk

Here are two stocks of interest on my watch list.  I am not making any recommendations in this herky-jerky market.

Ford (F):  F may be an accumulate or hold but I would not put the whole stake on it.  Currently, I favor a small position with a dollar cost average mindset for a possible long position. The following IBD report is a nice summary of Ford in the market.

https://www.investors.com/research/ford-stock-buy-now/?src=A00220

 

 

CleanSpark, Inc (CLSK):  losing my trust with regards to possible at- the-market (ATM) share dilution and over the top compensation.  They have been transparent on bit coin mining, but transparency seems lacking on the ATM.  At a time when shareholders want to see more on transparency of share dilution, they put out a PR that highlights more spending.  It raises a flag called caution to me.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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A strategy in a volatile and uncertain market - Ford , as example

 

Market Talk
 

The Fed Chairman, Mr. Powell, came out the other day saying the "transitory" inflation term the Fed invented was being "retired". Then followed up with a hawkish statement about trying to tackle inflation, further expounding on how our economy was so "robust". Yeah ok. funny huh?

Does the above sound like policy coming that will keep the bull market going?

Stock Talk

I suspect the volatility could make coming market calls very difficult.  The stimulus bill may make the bulls feel bolstered into buying stocks.  I am cautious.  However, the ev commitment by Ford (F) may gain traction in stock price as sales increase.  It's not a sure thing and it could float below and above $20 or even fade back to the teens.  But long term, it seems like Ford has a chance to outperform.  would I bet my whole stake?  no way.

A strategy I favor is - say I like Ford and have some to invest. If so, I may buy a small fraction of the shares of what I want today and watch it. Then if it fades and still looks appealing long term, add some.  If not, don't and re- evaluate based on the current happenings of the future.

 

Today, I'm thinking more dry powder, less spec stocks.  

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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A few " possible Disruptor stocks" under $10 and $20 on my Watch List: (VXRT, INO, FSR and Ford)

Market Talk

I've been circumspect about the overall market with favoring small positions in gold and silver. However, while cautious with the market bouncing off all-time highs - there are certain happenings and trends that seem to be here to stay. With this in mind, I am watching a few stocks of interest.

Stock Talk

Two under $10 stocks:

There is a new highly contagious C19 strain identified from South Africa and it has already spread to Botswana and Hong Kong. Actually, a new variant tagged as B.1.1.529, now named Omnicron. There are troubling things about this particular bug. It is reported to have evolved to 30 new mutations of the spike protein that current mRNA vaccines by Pfizer and Moderna target.

Two spec stocks in the vaccine space that could be the next generation of protection are Vaxart (VXRT) and Inovio (INO). Each have novel attributes.

Vaxart offers an Oral Tablet that dissolves in the mucous of the lower bowel. Covid 19 is transmitted via mucus droplets and takes hold in the mucous. Some believe this gives the Vaxart tablet an advantage. The counter argument is that VXRT is behind in the timeline of clinical trials and still needs more proving.

Inovio is starting the final Phase 3 clinical trial after the FDA put a hold on it due to questions on the device planned to adminisier the vaccine. That hold seemed heavy handed to this observer and raised questions of the FDA intentionally manipulating a delay so that their favored mRNA vaccines had the advantage.

Both VXRT and INO stock currently trade in the $ 7's range. With the emergence of Omnicron that seems to rapidly mutate the C19 spike Protein, it seems that the door may be open to both VXRT and INO stock to gain traction if further data proves that neutralizing antibodies and T cell immunity is triggered. Both the current mRNA vaccines offered by Pfizer and Moderna so far have NOT been shown to provide durable long-lasting protections. That is why boosters are being called for. However, early data from both Vaxart and Inovio vaccines seem to trigger the important T cell immunity that may be longer lasting for years, even a lifetime. For these reasons, it leaves me pondering if Vaxart's tablet vaccine and Inovio's vaccine (dna) could both be on the table as next generation vaccines with more robust attributes over existing vaccines. This would classify Vaxart and Inovio as possible disruptors. As a stock watcher the risk is the time and thus resources to actually prove and get to market.

A tablet vaccine has compelling advantages if it is proven to provide safe and effective long-lasting T cell protections. That has NOT yet been shown by Pfizer and Moderna's vaccines.

Two under $20 stocks:

Two possible disruptor stocks are in the electric vehicle (ev) apace are:

Fisker (FSR) - the planned ev's in 2022 look very interesting with a solar panel on the roof and carpets made from recycles plastic bottles from the sea. Two ranges of electric vehicles, both respectable, are planned and the co has an interesting and economical manufacturing plan to possibly overcome some of the obstacles hampering new comers in the ev space.

Ford (F) is implementing and manufacturing their Mustang and F 150 and orders are reported to reflect high demand

In summary, the market is volatile with Fed speak becoming hawkish on sooner than planned interest rate hikes to try to stem inflation. If buying any stock, I suggest thinking "some", not "too much". In spec stocks, keep some dry powder and re-evaluate the positions as time goes on.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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When The Fed changes tone on Interest rates to combat inflation, watch out.

 

Market Talk
 

Quick post to say that when the Fed goes hawkish after being dovish on interest rates be careful.

maybe some in a stock but too much can be a painful slide as the market punishes bulls. I don't make recommendations but having some dry powder if the market takes a downturn can save a lot of grief.  Interest rate sensitive stocks that depend on people borrowing to make purchases can suffer hard in such times.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
_______

Government Policy has me circumspect on the markets.

 

Market Talk
 

The democrats, with the majority in congress, have a socialist agenda under a guise of infrastructure.  Inflation is rampant with rates higher than in 30 years.  The Fed with Jerome Powell as the Federal reserve Chairman is expected to start raising interest from all-time lows in 2022.  However, the Fed has been dovish while they have dished out unemployment checks and it seems some are reluctant to get off the gravy train. Meanwhile a trend of shoplifting and lawlessness is growing across the country. California is a trend setter with allowing thieves to steal just under $ 1000 a day and if caught be charged with just a misdemeanor and go on.   But the police are overwhelmed in the cities and they typically just get away with it.  The woke democrats seem to think this is "equity".  Is it a ship of fools?   America's supply in oil pumping is down 10% and talk of using the strategic reserves are in play. sheesh.

Now the above is a view from main street not the market.  The market is looking to what it perceives as winners and losers from policy.  The Democrat policy is to rely on Russia and Opec to produce more oil while America was energy independent before Biden got in. Now he begs Russia and the middle east to produce more oil as they laugh at us. Oil and gas are going sky high and are a big inflation factor.  Interest rate hikes are not going to change oil prices.  The dems use climate change as the crisis to justify socialist "woke" policy of all sorts.  There is a way to transition to cleaner energy but the heavy-handed manipulative way of the socialist democrats is not the right way. There has got to be a better balance of policy to reflect the center not radical left-wing policy.

Stock Talk

The above preamble leaves me circumspect about the way America is headed.  One could say yeah forget about it all and watch infrastructure stocks.  For now, I'm still shaking my head and pondering.  Are we, the ones who grew up with the greatest generation as family the only ones - who see it?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkKb4Zt48x8

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
_______

Gold and Silver - breakout coming or "Already ran" ?

 

Market Talk
 

In this post, I am going to refrain on commenting on where bad decisions and policy are taking our country.  However, on the economic front there is one thing that is happening-  Inflation. Bad inflation at rates  that we haven't seen in 30 years.  The Fed changes their view of "transitory" and remains less vigilant on the notion of raising interest rates  in the near term for the risk of slowing the economic recovery.

Stock Talk

With the above preamble, I  have been pondering if the recent rise in commodities  will spill over to a breakout on  Gold and silver.  On the other hand, the counter view is that they have already run and it may settle down.  With inflation seeming to be here, I am forming a view that Gold and Silver may just be ready to breakout much higher.

There is another factor in play in my viewfinder and that is the recent hoopla on bitcoin and other Crypto currency.  Crypto is in opposition to Fiat currency, that is those based on Governments like the US Dollar for example.  In a very real way Crypto can subvert trust in Fiat and Crypto is being used as an inflation hedge. In fact, I believe that it is becoming a serious threat to confidence in the US dollar. This happened to Gold back in the 30's and the US Fed took action on gold holdings.  Could they be planning action on Crypto ?  I suspect it may come in the form of higher taxes on Crypto gains. Crypto subverts the US Dollar.

China , for example, has already outlawed Crypto. However, China is exporting Crypto mining computers to outside countries like the US.  Again,  I have a suspicion that the US officials are waiting to quell the rise of Crypto by imposing special tax increases in Crypto gains.  If that happens it could create a Crypto CRASH.  And it would seem logical that people that have been hiding their funds in crypto could realize that hard gold and silver is a safer way to store value in inflationary times.  Regardless if the above story plays out, Gold and Silver are looking like a place to possibly maintain an allocated portion of a portfolio and "may" breakout higher or it may not decline in value as much as buying power of cash.

These are some Bull etf's that I am looking at :

GLD, a gold etf

SLV,  a silver etf

There are also leveraged double 2 X's bull ETF  on Gold and the miners as well. These leveraged ETF's are typically only good as a short term trade if the buyer thinks they can predict a near term direction.   But, if wrong and the direction goes the other way, the futures decay has a detrimental effect on the rate of decline in etf share value.  Yes, double etf's are a gamble on direction.  

One such 2X  Bull etf  on gold is UGL.  

I don't make recommendations on this site and recognize every bull case may have an equally strong bear case.  One such bear case is to look at the historical chart and a bear would say -  hey buddy,  already ran!   But a counter argument is a LOT of things have already run and if inflation continues at historical rates with energy costs a big driver - gold and silver may just be ready for a breakout run higher.  Because I am leaning to a notion that  a breakout "may be " coming, I have listed some bull ETF's. However, these are all just theories and any of our theory's about future performance  remain to be proven or disproven over time. Sometimes it's more prudent to just watch and see from the sidelines with dry powder.  In testing any such bull or bear view, I would say that the word "some" comes to mind whist maintaining dry powder and remaining watchful. Or just stay out and go to work or for a walk, whatever floats your boat. I close this post with a cautionary note to myself.  Timing a market is a gamble and can feel like a fool's game gone bad with "too much" or even "any".

So some may wonder at this point, what is Spider Jones saying and doing here???

In full disclosure , Spider Jones is holding  "some"  GLD and SLV at present and watching and pondering the leveraged gold etf.   He may or may not jump in or out some or none at anytime and maybe on a dip.  

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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