Market Talk
If you read my past few Market Talks, you may note that this blog went to a powder dry - cash mode. And suddenly we now see some of market pundits like Jim Cramer saying the same thing.
I have coined a term here called "the Biden effect". Now The President has stated that the market will crash if the democrats take the White House. There are certainly indicators that it could well crash. I have to make one point, it may start happening BEFORE the Nov 3 decision. And the pundits are saying that a close election could take months to figure out the winner - Yikes! With all the uncertainty and turmoil - who needs it?
There are BIG issues at stake in this election that will determine the direction that America will take. It goes way, way beyond personality of one or the other. The bigger effect goes into whether the fundamental principals of independent constitutional freedom and capitalism will prevail or America will change to government controlled socialist ways. To that I would say look at the history of Venezuela since going socialist.
For all young Americans that are leaning towards socialism, I would suggest you to tune to AM radio host Mark Levine and hear his message about America's history and directions. With that said, it seems like it may be a very, very close election and the democrats may be mobilizing to have a bigger impact than the last election. Free stuff winds up NOT being free.
My own father was a WW 2 Vet who flew 30 missions over Nazi Germany and last 2 missions were on D-Day. He had less than a 20% chance of actually surviving his tour, but his plane turned up battered with holes, but they made it. He did not take part in saving the world and America from tyranny and mass executions and to have America lose it's rich history, identity and borders. On that I have to agree with Trump, if no borders, we have no country. There is much as stake in this election!
Now without further political view, I will offer some observations that I am being mindful of in "the market" ...
Wall Street Vs Main Street Phenomena:
For quite awhile and especially since the pandemic, there has been quite a disconnect between the market boom and Main street. If Main street turns towards the democrats as the city folks tend to do, and they do take Nov 3, the Biden effect could indeed crash the market as main street starts seeing what they have done. Be careful what you wish for Main street!
The Trump disconnect:
When we watch Donald Trump, he goes on the attack against his opponents. Sometimes rightfully so. Since the day he has been elected, the dems have been trying to impeach him on false premises.
They "don't like him" I get that. He can irritate the hell out of people sometimes when he speaks off the cuff with sometimes wacky statements ( so does Biden!). But Trump is somewhat misunderstood, he is trying to be humorous sometimes but it comes off bad, like the time he said he could shoot somebody and get away with it! He was trying to say he thought his people loved him so much, but man - that was wrong headed and a wacky thing to say! So I get why many think "the Donald" is a billionaire "tool" . Sometimes he is! However, he does stand up for America and represent. He brought back steel mills and industry to America, made new deals for our farmers with China and more recently helped broker new agreements in the Middle east with Israel. Unemployment rates, before the Pandemic was at all time lows for all Americans of every ethnic.
I will now outline a serious flaw that Trump displays. With the BLM movement, it seems that Trump is rightfully disturbed about the looting and disrespect for police stations and court houses and stores and businesses that has taken place in cities run by Democrat mayors and state Governors. However, where Trump is failing to connect with many is when he constantly refers to "law and order" without addressing some of the real concerns about excessive police force .
Modified training and means beyond "shoot to kill" practices are needed in this country. When the police are confronted with the mentally disturbed (of all ethic groups) situations there has got to be a better protocol to take in many situations. We do not hear Trump giving much credence to the notion that police training and situational awareness need to be improved . along with some situations could benefit from a trained worker with the police to help handle the mentally disturbed ones.
Now Trump's recent positions saying "Law and Order" and "let the justice system" handle incidents where the police get caught on camera using excessive force - turns people off that may otherwise vote for him. They are looking for a Leader in this area and Joe Biden is there and he will get their vote. And these people, that hate Trump, do not even think about what policies come with the democrats.
In short, nobody is perfect especially Trump. I point this out to say if enough people line up perceived personality grievances against Trump, many will vote democrat regardless of what bad policies for America come.
The mistake of the unaware:
The young voters today do not have quite the same values as those of us who grew up with WW2 era parents that stood up and fought (with our flag!) for America and the entire world on the beaches of Normandy and Island of Iwo Jimo. My father and Uncles were there and they raised me to remember. When the flag is disrespected, the ones doing so dishonor my own people and many other Americans.
The sacrifice of the greatest generation saving the world from fascist tyranny overrides all slighting of prior history that any American may believe that they are now entitled to "special treatment". And the Antifa movement that wants to destroy American history and culture and "start over" with some twisted socialist / Marxist views?
"Marxism
is a social, political, and economic philosophy named after Karl Marx,
which examines the effect of capitalism on labor, productivity, and
economic development and argues for a worker revolution to overturn
capitalism in favor of communism."
Big Money may be "hunkering down"
With the recent turmoil in democrat cities like New York ( the mayor took his honeymoon in Cuba, The Governor said the President is not welcome to walk the streets in New York City?_ And yet they all desperately want federal bailouts for their state run mismanagement.
If big money is bailing out from their cities. moving back to their summer homes in the country, what are they doing with their stock market gains? Perhaps bailing out and hunkering down for the possible new socialist America of a Bernie Sanders type government and then what after capitalism suffers?
Conclusion:
I have outlined and kind of alarmed about a phenomena I now call "the Biden effect" that may continue affecting the stock market before the election of November 3rd. This does not mean that I will not venture into the market as certain opportunity arises. However in any stock pick , if feeling bullish, I will personally change my view to "cautious optimism".
I do not
make recommendations here. I can only say what they say when it seems
like it may be time to hunker down. Keep some powder dry. If buying a stock and you feel bullish change the thinking to "cautious optimism" and don't put the farm on any one thing.
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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..
This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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