Looking into 2022 brings several happenings on the global front that may bring back tensions so large to disrupt the market. This is a view I don't enjoy posting on but the risks seem possible so here goes.
Russia, more specifically Putin, does not want Ukrainian independence without their "partnership". Russia definitely does not want Ukraine to be part of NATO. Free countries believe in self-determination. The people of Ukraine mostly desire independence but there are some that want ties to Russia. Putin uses the minority opinion as reason to claim Russia should "protect" the Russian leaning people and could claim justification that an attack is justified to claim full control of the Ukraine.
Now China is another concern. China claims that Taiwan is part of China whereas Taiwan operates in practicality independent of China. It seems the difference is that the mainland is communist, and Taiwan believes in independent democracy. Each want their own form of government for the other.
Tensions both from Russia and China to claim the Ukraine and Taiwan respectively are growing. Especially since the awkward withdrawal of American and NATO forces from Afghanistan. The issue is that while America and NATO countries want to allow free will of the people in Ukraine and Taiwan, these countries are not part of NATO.
In a nuclear age with recent advances in world destroying capabilities, tensions between "super- powers" should be tempered.
However, when one power starts to believe they have a leg up on the other it may lead to arrogance of actions. I don't even want to think about how the latest hyper-sonic missiles coming from space fit into the equation. However, the US defense department had better be on it. This is all a fool's game for humanity on earth.
So "what if" Russia takes the massed troops and invades Ukraine?
and "what if" mainland China decides to invade Taiwan? Such actions are against the democratic principles of America. But both Russia and China calculus is that if they have the power to do it, then they may believe threat of nuclear annihilation will keep the US out of the conflict. They would think - they may be right.
So, if the above starts happening what would be the best outcome over Nuclear war?
Perhaps a COLD WAR?
what if it gets so cold that trade is cut off with an embargo of goods from China? ... and what would that mean for business, goods and services tied to a global economy?
America would be forced back to producing many goods at home that were outsourced to China. Back in the 80's and 90's- The politicians (like Biden) pushed that global economy agenda on us taking the manufacturing jobs with it. Transition to a more libertarian mode for America would take time.
Take a company like Apple. Forget it - too dependent on China. .
But cell phones with exception of Motorola are not even made in America. And Motorola was bought out by GOOGLE and then Google sold out to Lenovo, a Chinese company.
So -in the case of a new cold war, that could lead to severed ties including business - would be bad for the global economy and would disrupt good and services in a hard way. Going further, any stock that has to do with China would likely crash in a cold war scenario. But all in all, it would affect the entire market
In conclusion -
This is about market watch- a cold war would be bad for the market but beats nuclear war. And especially hard on the companies that are overly tied to China such as Apple - and could crash harder.
I hope steps will be made to let people live in peace and prosperity. However, power struggles and differences in self-determination vs dominance of wills may come to a head sooner than many realize.
Winds of a cold war may bode market caution or awareness unless tensions and aggressions lessen. But recently, tensions and aggressive actions are increasing not decreasing.
Another world war beyond a cold war is unfathomable for all of humanity.
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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..
This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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