Market Talk
Today's post has a philosophical flavor based on "notions". More specifically about how our notions can affect us. When we invest and trade "the markets", a hard lesson can occur when "things happen" that disrupt our present "notions".
In the market it takes intuition to analyze a particular sector and project into the future. Analysts do this all the time by projecting a stock's performance in terms of demand and prospects for earnings growth. The market is always "trying" to look ahead to the future and share prices can reflect "notions" about future earnings growth.
Often times, our intuition is based on notions that may be correct. In contrast, sometimes our notions may be correct at the time BUT then "disrupters" can happen before we even know it.
On top of it all, the market is full of unseen events such as institutional trading, dilution and insider feather bedding, market maker shenanigans, shorts putting out FUD and many other unseen factors to the small retail investor. These can and will affect our stock positions and share values. Let's face it - the market is a dicey game. Awareness is important if we want to see gains instead of losses. Nobody gets it right all the time. More greens than reds and conserving dry powder is the goal. What is dry powder anyway? It used to be cash in US dollars. As of recent, perhaps we can't even be so sure about cash with the morons devaluing our fiat by policies against Americans. Is this a notion that makes Bitcoin more attractive? Gold? how about Uranium?
When we form a notion and then analyze a sector and take a position it is based on a notion of present and future value.
We should also be aware of disrupters to our notions that can waylay perceived value. One way to acknowledge that projecting "notions" into the future - is to not be too arrogant by investing "too much" in any one notion. But "some" to test a notion may be a better way.
Now traders also have to gauge their own mental factor called "conviction". The bullish sentiment on any position should be tempered in reality. Chasing a conviction that may not play out can be a dangerous game. When tests of conviction happen, sometimes take a walk and think about things. Be circumspect. The Aussies call such walks - walkabouts.
In closing, the retail small investor taking a position in our notions have some advantages in that we can pull the trigger anytime and take a gain or cut a loss. And disadvantages as well. We need to try to not be the last to know that a disruptive event has changed the success notion to failure or to a lackluster performance.
As a final note, nobody rings a bell when it's time to take some profit or cut a loss. ONLY you can judge what is right for you. fear and greed are cousins to be aware of. But if you find yourself running low on dry powder, your portfolio may indicate a sell of a portion to take a gain here and there.
Is this confusing? If so, welcome to the market! With the above preamble and cautionary note let's us proceed to a sector on watch, if you dare.
Stock Talk
Notion: A micro-reactor is a small "plug and play" nuclear reactor easily transported
that can be used with up to 20 Mega-Watts of thermal energy that can be
used for heat or electric power. As example, it can provide power for
TEN thousand homes for TEN years without stopping .
Watch: Watching the Uranium sector. One ETF that has exposure to the Uranium sector is - URA.
Looking at the chart, URA has backed off from the previous high, but is catching recent market buying interest. This article is three months old but still seems relevant.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/uranium-etf-ura-hits-52-120000233.html
For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any
particular day may change in the future days to come. That is why we
watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time. But
trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do
things. If you think too deep about world events and the recent
alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor. With all
the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this
post.
Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.
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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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