Still market pensive but here's some opining on "if", "feel" and "some" in stocks.

 

 Market Talk

This is an update to yesterday's post.  Sometimes a small investor who watches the market and stocks and tries to gauge the signs, just gets a bad feeling. I have it. Is it just Agida or a pensive feeling based on facts that point to economic downturn ahead?

Fed tightening typically will put pressure on hard assets like Gold and the newer perceived ether asset known as "crypto".   Stocks can also fall because raising rates is intended to slow the economy with a side effect of unemployment to do it.  An ironic effect is unemployment can make government spending increase as benefits need to be distributed.

 

Many pundits think the  Fed is going to raise interest rates at least one more time to combat inflation. The market will still look for the tone of the Fed to support a soft landing scenario for the economy. But a very real implication of a cool off is possible unemployment and recession where people tighten spending on services, travel and retail consumer goods including automobiles and housing.

The above opining points to a full blown recession coming.  Will that actually happen?  Who actually knows for sure? nobody!  But I am noting how I feel TODAY about a possible scenario that I think the market may not like and stocks could suffer in share price.

 

Other Market happenings:

 

Some Tech stocks are up today on earnings.  Ok, they bounce. Its the market folks. Up today, down the next.

 

Longer term, the democrats are on a jihad against the internal combustion engine (ICE) in the name of climate change.  I am not a believer in forced mandates in this area for several reasons.  The "dems"  are pushing a revolution rather than an evolution and trying to take away freedom of choice.  The electrical grid cannot support it.  California already had rolling blackouts.  The agenda gives all the power to a global adversary that seem to want to either enslave us or destroy us, namely the CCP.  In a broader sense, I would not want to own ANY company that deals with mainland China with their companies tied to the CCP.  If you do some research into the masses of hyper-sonic missiles with the speed of OVER 2 miles per second and their allowed spy balloons over nuclear missile silos in Montana, maybe American's would  start to wake up.  Yet, many in America are in love with such items as their Apple phones and tic toc app, all from China.  Not to mention our reliance on so many other items. This is not a bash on hard working Chinese people but their government is using capitalism against us to eventually control us if we don't wake up.  Dealing with China seems an unfair proposition for Americans as the companies from China buy up farms near military bases and companies like Smithfield foods that process our pork supply.  Watch out for the CCP folks, they are not a friend. The CCP have honored Russia and Putin as their "best friend".

 

Stock Talk

 

My previous post highlighted a few small starting positions that I have dabbled in.   I had stepped to the sideline on DVN and traded some RIOT.  In light of more bad mouthing of oil and gas by the dems in government and the recent sell off of crypto by the whales, the stocks have me concerned for a further sell off.  Reading the charts had me pensive.

Today's Update:  After a few days of a bitcoin swoon after the $30 K level, today  bitcoin is coming back with a vengeance up over $2,400 at this point today to $29,700. What is going on with bitcoin?  That is an impressive comeback and has something to do with short covering as well.  I am holding some RIOT because the company has amassed over 7,000 bitcoins and reports an additional $230 Million in cash. The gamble is on bitcoin price.  If bitcoin can get past the $30 k it seems plausible that Riot could fly due to their leveraged bitcoin holdings.  I'll be watching to see if the "whales" dump it again or more buyers jump back in bitcoin to surge it to the $35 k level. Notice the "if" in these words and when you hear the word "if" - beware.  That little world "if" can be a very dangerous word when talking stocks. My way is to just say "some" shares.  There's another word - "feel".  "If", "feel" are speculative words and my antidote in trading is maybe "some" but not "too much".   Too much can really really hurt when things go sour but some can be nice when it works out.

Dry Powder:  Lastly, as a place to park "some" dry powder?  USFR.  I posted on this previously. It should not deviate much from the $50 range as an etf but it is based on short term treasury notes and the interest is currently paying over 4%. Still, I would not put it all in an etf - maybe "some"  though.

I close this post by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change the in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor. With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. 

Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Economic "Perceptions" of the week affect the stocks

 

 Market Talk

This week the market is undergoing a healthy respect for the coming Fed meeting on May 3rd to announce the next interest rate decision.  Since the recent Fed action to stem bank failure fear has subsided, many believe that the Fed will likely raise rates again by 25 basis points. With perception that the Fed is back in control it seems that the inflation fighting will be front and center on the to do list.

Fed tightening typically will put pressure on hard assets like Gold and the newer perceived ether asset known as "crypto".   Stocks can also fall because raising rates is intended to slow the economy with a side effect of unemployment to do it.  An ironic effect is unemployment can make government spending increase as benefits need to be distributed.

 

 

Stock Talk

 

My previous post highlighted a few small starting position that I have dabbled in.  This is an update:

 

Devon Energy (DVN):  No change in my previous view. Holding a small position in Devon with an an over 9% dividend.  I don't believe that we will not need oil and natural gas for a long, long time.  As far as the stock goes, I sold it in the 70s for gain and I bought a small position back in the low 50's.  I think DVN merits watching and holding some to see.  With global production cuts, Devon may be in the sweet spot with their oil and natural gas fields here in good ol' America.  I am not talking a large stock position though because there is risk of a future recession slow down affecting demand. On the other hand, if DVN dips some for no apparent good reason, I may add a few more shares with dry powder.

 

Bitcoin miners:  This week, the bitcoin surge to the $30 K level has been challenged as a whale dumped 16,000 bitcoins on the market triggering a further selloff.  In a prior post, I took a small position in RIOT bitcoin miner as they have amassed over 7,000 bitcoin and growing with continued operations.  The buy-in point was in the $11 range with the notion that bitcoin may sustain near the $30 K .   But, the recent bitcoin swoon has me concerned.  I think RIOT is the best of sector, but if the bitcoin swoon continues, risk increases.  As far as other miners, I would avoid entirely because the run like in CLSK came to far too fast with major expenses planned and likely share dilution.

 

Again any trading in bitcoin miners is purely speculation and as such is a gamble. How anybody trades the crypto sector is at their own discretion and risk

 

Dry Powder:  Lastly, as a place to park "some" dry powder?  USFR.  I posted on this previously. It should not deviate much from the $50 range as an etf but it is based on short term treasury notes and the interest is currently paying over 4%.

I close this post by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change the in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor. With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. 

Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
_____________

Market Talk, Caveats and attempted Prognostications anyone?

 

 Market Talk

The market continues it's trading seemingly unaware of the geopolitical dynamics of a growing cold war between China and America not to mention an all out effective war with Russia over the Ukraine.  The banking crisis of three banks not being able to cover deposit withdrawals has at least temporarily subsided due the federal reserve statements that deposits are covered even beyond the $250,000 FDIC limit.  While stemming the fear of banking risk, it sent a message to the markets as to the core value of the dollar as printed by the government.  

With banking risks increasing in Europe as well, the overall skepticism of Fiat money has bolstered hard assets such as gold.  Concurrent bullish sentiment to crypto currency such as Bitcoin has triggered a breakout to recent new levels at the $30K range.  Recall that bitcoin experienced a fall from grace when it peaked in the $60 K range.  The tumultuous world events of threatening war skies over Taiwan is not helping to increase confidence in any government backed fiat currency.  Many of the younger generation views crypto such as bitcoin and ethereum as a form of liquid gold that has no national alliances.

Meanwhile on the energy front, OPEC recently announced a planned ten percent cut in oil production starting in May.  The oil and natural gas stocks with domestic fields have leveled from their swoon down on recession slowdown fear.  The price of oil and gas has bounced accordingly.  I believe that Opec is cutting production largely because they project a global recession slowdown is coming and therefore it may be a prudent move on their part to stabilize their product pricing on the basis of less demand. When people lose jobs, they don't drive as much for example.

The democrats are doing everything possible to get us into electric cars.  But that puts us more dependent on China because they control the majority of mines that have the minerals needed for batteries. America has enough oil and natural gas for hundreds of years and the manufacturers have made cars more fuel efficient. Yet, the democrats want to force us into electric cars by government mandates.  This is a wrong headed approach for America in my view. Also natural gas is a clean burn that should be used more for powering energy plants to supply the electric grid.  Our grid can not support everybody driving electric cars. The democrats solution of installing giant wind mill fields up and down the east coast  out in the ocean is killing the whales as they wash up on beaches all over.  Never mind that ! - say's the New Jersey democrat governor.

 

Stock Talk

 

My previous post highlighted a few small starting position that I am trying in 

 

Devon Energy (DVN):  At present, pays an over 9% dividend.  I don't believe that we will not need oil and natural gas for a long, long time.  As far as the stock goes, I traded it in the 70s and I bought a small position recently here in the low 50's.  I think DVN merits watching and holding some to see.  With global production cuts, Devon may be in the sweet spot with their oil and natural gas fields here in good ol' America.  I am not talking a large stock position though because there is risk of a future recession slow down affecting demand. On the other hand, if DVN dips some for no apparent good reason, I may add a few more shares with dry powder.

 

Bitcoin miner RIOT:  I have opined in market talk about bitcoin surging to the $30 K range.  If such a trend continues, it seems RIOT may be positioned to benefit.  The appeal is that RIOT mines bitcoin and  holds over 7,000 bitcoin and growing and is a leading bitcoin miner with high monthly tallies.  I like that 7000 bitcoin X 30 K is $210 million fiat dollars of US currency. If bitcoin continues higher as some predict, RIOT has a lot of room for upside imho.  Still, this is purely speculation and as such is a gamble. How anybody trades this info is at their own discretion and risk

 

Lastly, as a place to park "some" dry powder?  USFR.  I posted on this previously. It should not deviate much from the $50 range as an etf but it is based on short term treasury notes and the interest is currently paying over 4%.

I close this post by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change the in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor. With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. 

Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
_____________

Small Starting positions.

 Market Talk

Just about everything we do in our life is a gamble of some sort. It's a matter of degree. In these tumultuous times, the stock market certainly is a gamble. The following are a few stocks (and an ETF)  I have taken small starting positions in each to see how things play out.

 

Stock Talk

 

• Energy Sector (Oil and gas): Devon Energy (DVN)
• Bitcoin Miner : RIOT
  
• A place to park "some" dry powder : USFR
  

If interested, the above may merit watching and due diligence to see if you agree these are worth watching or not. It's an odd dynamic that often when we buy a stock others sell the stock. So that is why I just say "small" starting position.  Then watch it and maybe add a little more on dips with the dry powder if the position has merit. Or - just watch it and see if its worth holding as events, performance and the future play out.

Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
_____________

What is your "Dry Powder" in ? a look at USFR .

 Market Talk

The overall stock market is held hostage by perceived events of the future. The playground is filled with Cnbc like traders riding a seesaw of opinion on inflation vs recession and the Fed as the monitor.  How interest rate control will affect the market and the hopeful "soft landing" scenario remains to be seen.

 

Geopolitical global factors are playing out that I will just call disturbing for the purpose of this market and stock post. When we use the word "disturbing" it is quite an understatement with the backdrop of WAR and potential future war-like behavior in the world.

 

How you may ask , do these views affect "stock picking"?  

 Stock Talk

With the above market view , it seems that parking some assets out of the overall market may be prudent.  But what is way to get a good return based on the relative higher interest rates?  Perhaps parking some cash in an ETF with the ability to get in and out in a flexible way and still take advantage of high interest rates is something to think about.   The ETF with symbol USFR may be a decent place to park some dry powder. It is based on variable interest rates of US treasury notes. As  long as Wisdom tree manages the ETF according to the plan goals, it should return a better interest rate than many accumulating every month.  With the variable feature, maybe look forward to an interest rate of over 2% to even over 4% at present.

 USFR

"Fund Overview
The WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury Fund seeks to track the price and yield
performance, before fees and expenses, of an index that measures the performance of
the market for floating rate public obligations of the U.S. Treasury"

https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/-/media/us-media-files/documents/resource-library/fund-fact-sheets/fixed-income/wisdomtree-factsheet-usfr-1648.pd

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
_____________