Friday, January 24, 2014

Is the market like a Flying Dream ?


Market Talk:

Do you ever have a flying dream? I get them once in awhile. It can be a fun dream. Often when these dreams come to me, I am perfecting a particular technique or movement that brings aerodynamic lift and then flight suddenly happens.

When my daughter was just a kid we used to have fun in the pool this way. I would throw her as high as I could and tell her to work on an arm gesture to catch flight. It never happened but we had fun trying. Sometimes it got so silly that we would crack up laughing and try again and again, perfecting the ones that took her higher.

But in my flying dreams, sometimes I will fly back to my old neighborhood and try to teach my old friends how to fly. It usually starts out with a running start and then taking leaps with my arms out as far as I can. Then there's some unusual flipping out of a leg with the nuance of a turned foot in a certain position and arms outstretched and voila! flight happens.

In other dreams sometimes I just jump as high as I can and then believe I can fly and rather than come down, I float about longer than gravity would take and then catch the air and off I go, in amazement to myself and gawking bystanders.

These dreams, while not often, can be quite fun in dreamland.

However, there are some flying dreams that happen to go too far. Not all landings are graceful.

For example, sometimes we get too much altitude and then suddenly lose the technique that got us there. It could be the "belief" that we can indeed defy gravity . Suddenly falling victim to the notion of "what goes up must come down". Then as the fun flying comes to an awkward end we flail about and wake up with our arms and legs moving in the bed.

Well, take the market yesterday and today. After reaching all time highs, the Dow has faded below the 16,000 mark as of this midday Friday report. Some say the overall market got ahead of itself. Some say it's just a normal Friday's profit taking and will snap back after a slight correction.

Sometime the collective macro market is looking ahead predicting future sentiment for some unknown reasons or another. There is posturing by China over some uninhabited islands in the South China sea that both Japan and China claims ownership. China claims airspace rights and that is a potential source of trouble in the Asia pacific region with our ally, Japan.

Meanwhile Apple has started their cell phone business with China Mobile. It's about time from Apple's view because they have been manufacturing I phones in China for years. Billionaire hedge fund investor Carl Ichan has been buying up Apple shares on the dips and becoming more an activist towards Apple management. I'm sure they now think he's a pain in their ass. Meanwhile. Microsoft had a nice quarter and is defying the gravity of falling stocks today as the Dow is now off over 200 points.

Well, the future of the market is dependent on a lot of things like a continued economic recovery and investor belief that corporate earnings will continue to show growth. But some individual stocks appear way ahead of their current earnings or future growth projections. These stocks are vulnerable.

Well, is the market entering the flying dream stage where the belief is starting to wane as maybe the Fed starts tapering the money supply? Or is this all just a profit taking bounce on cold Friday here in the east.

The winds of the future will only say and they are not speaking to me yet.



__
ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
___

counter

Saturday, January 18, 2014

Oncothyreon makes a bold move to transparency in the Cancer fight arena.




Market Talk:

The bull sentiment seems to be holding on the notion that US and world economies are stabilizing and improving.  Here in the US, I listened to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke give what some consider his farewell remarks at a convention of economists.  He seemed to be somewhat  sanguine about the prospects for a continued recovery and at the same time caveating optimism with notes about  a sluggish economy and reasons for it.  The unemployment data can be misleading as more people lose benefits and go off the record books it makes jobless claims appear to be decreasing when it's just that some people gave up.  The thing to look for in an improving economy are indicators such as new car and home sales.  Recessions are typically preceded by lackluster sales.  For now, the auto and home business have been doing pretty good as the recovery from the crisis has been fueled by accommodative Federal reserve policy.

Stock Talk:

I have been reluctant to post as noted the other day.  But today, I will highlight a situation that has impressed me in term of transparency. Oncothyreon (ONTY) recently presented some early results on their cancer therapy and compound known as ONT-10.

http://www.oncothyreon.com/pdfs/ONT-10/SITC-poster.pdf

The details of the ONT- 10  immune boosting treatment in the Phase 1 clinical trial are presented in the above PDF file.  The compound has been designed with the goal of demonstrating both cellular and antibody responses to help fight cancer tumors.  From the data, we can see that they have targeted a broad range of cancers in order to target the most productive indications to extend the trial into Phase 2.

In theory, the Muc1 target presents itself in just about all cancers, but in practice there may be pathways in particular forms that make ONT 10 more effective.  Both the theory and practice are described in the above research note.  One item of the presentation is quite interesting because it gets down to the details of the initial results.  I am not going to interpret these results in this note because it is too early to draw complete conclusions.  However, some of the early data is promising in that in ovarian cancer actual tumor reductions have been reported with one being 44% reduction at time of record.

The Blue/ green chart on each individual patient is the most transparent report I have ever seen by any company. As they continue the trial, as they enroll new patients applying learned practices such as increasing the ONT 10 dose to 2,000 ug's in a cohort of patients, the metrics of how well ONT 10 is performing  will become clear.  I consider this format as a bold move by Oncothyreon and note that other companies have not been as transparent.  Researchers and investors alike should look forward to seeing updated reports as ONT-10 progresses through the maze of the FDA trial and approval process.

Such a blue/ green  chart format is a bold and transparent move by Oncothyreon because it illustrates both the potential risks and rewards in trying to fight and beat cancer.  Sometimes things work , sometimes not.  It provides a quick picture of each patient's fight within the aggregate of all the others in a similar fight.

In a way, the blue / green chart represents a challenge to all others in the cancer fight game to do the same and follow ONTY's lead in presenting transparent results. The blue green chart format tracks each case from start to end.

We'll see.  It all bears watching and would hope to see updates to the chart every three months or so..


__
ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
___

counter

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

When speaking of the market, I'll say perhaps.


Market Talk:

The market is currently enjoying a bull market mentality. The banter is relatively optimistic towards big business. While some companies are enjoying nice gains, others languish or drop hard for one reason or another. There is a bit of volatility and many people are waiting for the rug to be pulled but in the meantime the bull market prevails, for now.


I have stated the obvious in general terms because speaking about the market and stocks can be like a broken clock. It may be correct twice a day.

If you are interested in the market, you should try writing down your feelings and projections about the matters and stocks of the day. What you may find out is that "the market" has a collective mind of it's own and trying to estimate or project can be akin to watching wild or even house cats. They can be unpredictable.

Often, when you may think you have it figured out, that may last for the moment or even awhile but then something always seems to happen to trigger change. Perhaps when thinking about the market the events of 2006 through 2008 are too mired in my consciousness and therefore I do not want to speak about it much.

Well, we're in a bull market at this point in time. The overall stock indices at all time highs. And yet some sectors are topping and already caving. Perhaps these sectors such as 3D printing were over extended and due for a pullback. The market has a way of correcting itself.

Sometimes it takes an event to trigger a correction. Perhaps the stocks will continue the bullish run, perhaps it will level or perhaps not..

I'll say perhaps as the word of the day.



__
ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
___

counter