What happened to the Gold sector?

Market Talk:

Well, over the past few days we see the overall market drifting some off the recent all time highs with the Dow now at 15,941. Anxiety on the Federal reserve tapering the money supply is typically blamed for sell offs, but sometimes it's just plain old profit taking by the market machine. In general, the market seems over extended in some sectors and perhaps bubbles in others.

 Meanwhile, there is a sector that has underperformed and it is the Gold and related Gold mining stocks. I used to follow the Gold sector pretty closely until something happened where I was forced to make a decision about a stock I owned (TGB) versus the environmental concerns as raised by the First Nation natives in Canada. After review of the issues I was forced to objectively decide that the natives concerns had merit, so I had to side with the Natives and let go of the stock,  taking their concerns on my blog.  Since then, my interest in the Gold mining sector has waned some. It turned out to be a beneficial trading move because the Canadian government also took the environmental position and delayed the planned mine.

But I can't help but notice a recent "edge condition" in the gold sector.

Stock Talk:

I will call an edge condition a situation where a stock or an entire sector seems to breakdown in share price support based on certain factors pertinent to that stock or sector.

Just a few years ago, Gold could not breakout past the glass ceiling of $1000 an Ounce. Now that it has approached the $2000 level and has since been trending "lower" into the 1240 range sentiment towards gold is also waning.   With Gold being harder to find and costs of new gold going higher, there is concern that the gold miners will not be able to sustain earnings growth.

One stock I kind of watch from time to time is Yamana Gold (AUY). This company has several mines spread out in various places like South America. AUY claims a low cost of mining compared to other companies and pays a dividend and has consistently produced positive earnings.

AUY has trended lower into the 8's range. Back when Gold was higher it was typical for AUY to trade in the 13 to $15 range. Now it's in the 8's. Will Gold find its luster again and breakout from these recent lower sentiment and lower pricing?

With Gold still being viewed as a alternative to currency, there will likely be a time ahead where Gold goes a lot higher. But when is hard to say. The Gold stocks are in an edge condition. They could go either way in the near term.

I still watch the Gold mining stocks from time to time from the sidelines. Over the near term, it seems like what seems to be good buys may not be as they could go lower if gold pricing breaks down lower. Some would say don't jump under a falling knife - whereas others may say buy, buy, buy. I can't say for sure but I am not jumping to any conclusions either way as far a prediction.

All that said - Yamana in the 8's seems a little low and it may bounce, or not. Then again as we've seen - "something always happens."




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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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The PC and Laptop is not dead Shirely and other stock talk.

Market Talk:

It continues the rise to all time new highs apparently being fueled by an accommodative Federal Reserve. I won't be a part of the pumping machine, but it seems like things can go on awhile, until things happen to affect sentiment. Something always happens. I'll speak in general for awhile. The Dow is at 16,097 at this moment. Can it go higher? Probably.

Stock Talk:

The pundits on Cnbc and in the media often say "the PC is dead". Not so Shirley. Today HPQ presented results of $1.01 citing an increase in corporate PCs for business use. The PC is still the mainstay for business. People still use Windows with Microsoft Office, Word, Excel and PowerPoint. And laptops and PCs are much more affordable than the high priced Apple models.

I use PC's and a laptops and won't change. There are many, many people in the PC boat. The media gets on a theme and then they pump their stupid notion so they can pump their position in a stock. Guys like Cramer have done that. And I recall when they were bashing HPQ incessantly for a few months, everyday on the tube. Why? There must have been a heavy short element in the mix somewhere.

Cramer is just one example of many. The Motely fool, Seeking Alpha and many others all do the same. The market is made up of opinions much of the time. Opinions can be like Uknowwhat.

I recall when Cramer pumped solar panel company , First Solar, saying their solar panels soaked up the sun like a sponge better than all the others. That was by somebody who bought into some BS line. When you look into it, you see that FSLR' panels were the least efficient in converting sunlight to electrical energy. They were the cheapest though. That is because they used a process where they paint a formula of toxic Cadmium Telluride which has properties of solar cells, but were only about 5% efficient. Meanwhile silicon based solar cells were achieving up to 20 % and higher efficiency. The reason why companies use FSLR panels may be because they have a lot of space required and they probably received incentives for going green. But If I were putting solar panels on a home roof, I would not use First Solar panels,

Now don't get me wrong, Cramer is a sharp guy in my view. He probably is a stock genius. But sometimes the guy while entertaining comes out with stuff in a sarcastic way that just wreaks of nonsense because he is being fed misinformation and does not even realize he is putting out BS.

Well, on the other hand, he was the first pundit that I ever saw allowing himself to be drug out wearing a diaper on his show for making a bad call. I think it was for telling people to Sell Sell Sell Apple back in the day when it was struggling in the 20's or thereabouts.

I am not really picking on Cramer, but anybody who makes calls like advising people what to do with their money is going to have regretful mistakes at times. And that is where a little humility goes a long way. Anybody who puts skin in the game of the market will likely have times where the market will humble them and all glory can be fleeting.

And that brings me to this site and stock talk. I am of the notion that I don't want to be party of the pump and dump machine. I have tried not to be a stock pumper here and state what I see as the truth at the time. And sometimes the truth is hard to see. Something always happens and there are factors outside the realm of prediction.

For example, the FDA. It seems that the FDA has so many factors that affect how a compound may or may not get approved that is sometimes defies logic. One of these factors is not as much scientific process as it is bureaucratic delays and quite possibly conflicts of interest between competing companies. This can make stock picking in the biotech sector even harder. In biotechs, they are subject to the something always happens syndrome even more than other sectors. On the other hand, it is up to the individual companies to prove that time, effort and performance of their compounds are both safe and effective in treating whatever they are going after. That is not always so easy, especially when they are trying to break tough nuts like treating cancer.

Well, I have rambled enough for today. Happy Thanksgiving.







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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Why I avoided Amarin (AMRN) and some other health talk too.

Stock Talk:

Recently, Biotech Amarin (AMRN) tanked from the 7's to now in the lowly $1's. The Company has approval of a fish oil based drug, Vascepa, currently approved by the FDA for use as an adjunct to diet to reduce triglyceride levels in adult patients with severe ( >= 500 mg/dL) hypertriglyceridemia. However the FDA panel advised against approving it for wider uses against heart disease and broader applications until more trials and proof is made. This is viewed as a serious setback to AMRN's potential revenues.

Awhile back, AMRN was in the double digits. I got into a debate on the message boards with some chap who claimed to be a money manager who was quite bullish on AMRN stock when it was in the $15 range. I tried to let him know that I thought it was a bad bet based on my personal experience.

I am advocate of taking some fish oil. My own doctor prescribed a hign grade fish oil called Lovaza. It did help reduce my numbers and I noticed that after about a month, my back ache got better. I read up om the benefits of fish oil and found that it is reported to reduce inflammation. While I can't prove 100 % that the fish oil was responsible for correcting my bad back with inflammation around my lower lumbar disks, it seemed to help so I stayed on it. But the problem was that my insurance changed and the Blue cross would not pay much for it and it was very expensive.

So, I got off the Lovaza and went to Krill oil. I am also on a statin that I take daily. So far, I have not had a heart attack, whereas some younger cousins have already had heart attacks and sadly, some have passed away young.

But getting back to AMRN and why I tried to explained to this money manager that AMRN may have trouble in that if they are likely going to charge even MORE than Lovaza, the currently prescribed high grade fish oil, that many will not be able to afford it even if they have insurance. I have a co pay HMO where certain drugs cost an arm and leg if they are not generic.

So, many people will just settle for over the counter fish oil if they want to try it. Personally, I now like the Krill oil because it is more potent in smaller capsule with no fishy aftertaste.

Well, this is an example where we can use our own personal experience to gauge a stock's prospects.

Health Talk

Now getting back to high triglycerides and Cholesterol, I will share another experience that seemed to work very well, possibly the best readings in my life. There is an over the counter fiber that comes in pill form called "Chitosan". This is a marine fiber made from the shells of crustaceans. The theory is that it is slightly charged and absorbs the fat in your diet. The fiber may line the intestines and prevent fat from being absorbed. But what I am getting at is that the times I steadfastly took 2 or 3 pills before meals resulted in the best blood fat readings I have ever had. The problem is that it's a routine that takes getting into the habit of following regular. Well, I recently decided to go back on this Chitosan and get back into the routine to see how it does for high triglycerides. Some say it helps reduce weight, but that's not my experience, but it did greatly lower my blood fat readings. If anybody wants to try it, Puritan.com is where I get my supply, It's very low cost and seems to work for me anyway. If you are allergic to shell fish, I would check with the doctor, it may not be right in that case.

Another thing that is very good for humans is to regularly ride a bike. Riding 20 miles a week has been shown to reduce a person's chances of heart attack by 50%. There is something about riding a bike that favors the human body.

Well, there's a bit of stock talk, mixed with some health talk.






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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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The earth has a big problem Scotty - and it is us.

http://news.yahoo.com/the-ocean-is-broken-133327474.html


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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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