Economic "Perceptions" of the week affect the stocks

 

 Market Talk

This week the market is undergoing a healthy respect for the coming Fed meeting on May 3rd to announce the next interest rate decision.  Since the recent Fed action to stem bank failure fear has subsided, many believe that the Fed will likely raise rates again by 25 basis points. With perception that the Fed is back in control it seems that the inflation fighting will be front and center on the to do list.

Fed tightening typically will put pressure on hard assets like Gold and the newer perceived ether asset known as "crypto".   Stocks can also fall because raising rates is intended to slow the economy with a side effect of unemployment to do it.  An ironic effect is unemployment can make government spending increase as benefits need to be distributed.

 

 

Stock Talk

 

My previous post highlighted a few small starting position that I have dabbled in.  This is an update:

 

Devon Energy (DVN):  No change in my previous view. Holding a small position in Devon with an an over 9% dividend.  I don't believe that we will not need oil and natural gas for a long, long time.  As far as the stock goes, I sold it in the 70s for gain and I bought a small position back in the low 50's.  I think DVN merits watching and holding some to see.  With global production cuts, Devon may be in the sweet spot with their oil and natural gas fields here in good ol' America.  I am not talking a large stock position though because there is risk of a future recession slow down affecting demand. On the other hand, if DVN dips some for no apparent good reason, I may add a few more shares with dry powder.

 

Bitcoin miners:  This week, the bitcoin surge to the $30 K level has been challenged as a whale dumped 16,000 bitcoins on the market triggering a further selloff.  In a prior post, I took a small position in RIOT bitcoin miner as they have amassed over 7,000 bitcoin and growing with continued operations.  The buy-in point was in the $11 range with the notion that bitcoin may sustain near the $30 K .   But, the recent bitcoin swoon has me concerned.  I think RIOT is the best of sector, but if the bitcoin swoon continues, risk increases.  As far as other miners, I would avoid entirely because the run like in CLSK came to far too fast with major expenses planned and likely share dilution.

 

Again any trading in bitcoin miners is purely speculation and as such is a gamble. How anybody trades the crypto sector is at their own discretion and risk

 

Dry Powder:  Lastly, as a place to park "some" dry powder?  USFR.  I posted on this previously. It should not deviate much from the $50 range as an etf but it is based on short term treasury notes and the interest is currently paying over 4%.

I close this post by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change the in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor. With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. 

Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Market Talk, Caveats and attempted Prognostications anyone?

 

 Market Talk

The market continues it's trading seemingly unaware of the geopolitical dynamics of a growing cold war between China and America not to mention an all out effective war with Russia over the Ukraine.  The banking crisis of three banks not being able to cover deposit withdrawals has at least temporarily subsided due the federal reserve statements that deposits are covered even beyond the $250,000 FDIC limit.  While stemming the fear of banking risk, it sent a message to the markets as to the core value of the dollar as printed by the government.  

With banking risks increasing in Europe as well, the overall skepticism of Fiat money has bolstered hard assets such as gold.  Concurrent bullish sentiment to crypto currency such as Bitcoin has triggered a breakout to recent new levels at the $30K range.  Recall that bitcoin experienced a fall from grace when it peaked in the $60 K range.  The tumultuous world events of threatening war skies over Taiwan is not helping to increase confidence in any government backed fiat currency.  Many of the younger generation views crypto such as bitcoin and ethereum as a form of liquid gold that has no national alliances.

Meanwhile on the energy front, OPEC recently announced a planned ten percent cut in oil production starting in May.  The oil and natural gas stocks with domestic fields have leveled from their swoon down on recession slowdown fear.  The price of oil and gas has bounced accordingly.  I believe that Opec is cutting production largely because they project a global recession slowdown is coming and therefore it may be a prudent move on their part to stabilize their product pricing on the basis of less demand. When people lose jobs, they don't drive as much for example.

The democrats are doing everything possible to get us into electric cars.  But that puts us more dependent on China because they control the majority of mines that have the minerals needed for batteries. America has enough oil and natural gas for hundreds of years and the manufacturers have made cars more fuel efficient. Yet, the democrats want to force us into electric cars by government mandates.  This is a wrong headed approach for America in my view. Also natural gas is a clean burn that should be used more for powering energy plants to supply the electric grid.  Our grid can not support everybody driving electric cars. The democrats solution of installing giant wind mill fields up and down the east coast  out in the ocean is killing the whales as they wash up on beaches all over.  Never mind that ! - say's the New Jersey democrat governor.

 

Stock Talk

 

My previous post highlighted a few small starting position that I am trying in 

 

Devon Energy (DVN):  At present, pays an over 9% dividend.  I don't believe that we will not need oil and natural gas for a long, long time.  As far as the stock goes, I traded it in the 70s and I bought a small position recently here in the low 50's.  I think DVN merits watching and holding some to see.  With global production cuts, Devon may be in the sweet spot with their oil and natural gas fields here in good ol' America.  I am not talking a large stock position though because there is risk of a future recession slow down affecting demand. On the other hand, if DVN dips some for no apparent good reason, I may add a few more shares with dry powder.

 

Bitcoin miner RIOT:  I have opined in market talk about bitcoin surging to the $30 K range.  If such a trend continues, it seems RIOT may be positioned to benefit.  The appeal is that RIOT mines bitcoin and  holds over 7,000 bitcoin and growing and is a leading bitcoin miner with high monthly tallies.  I like that 7000 bitcoin X 30 K is $210 million fiat dollars of US currency. If bitcoin continues higher as some predict, RIOT has a lot of room for upside imho.  Still, this is purely speculation and as such is a gamble. How anybody trades this info is at their own discretion and risk

 

Lastly, as a place to park "some" dry powder?  USFR.  I posted on this previously. It should not deviate much from the $50 range as an etf but it is based on short term treasury notes and the interest is currently paying over 4%.

I close this post by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change the in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor. With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. 

Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Small Starting positions.

 Market Talk

Just about everything we do in our life is a gamble of some sort. It's a matter of degree. In these tumultuous times, the stock market certainly is a gamble. The following are a few stocks (and an ETF)  I have taken small starting positions in each to see how things play out.

 

Stock Talk

 

• Energy Sector (Oil and gas): Devon Energy (DVN)
• Bitcoin Miner : RIOT
  
• A place to park "some" dry powder : USFR
  

If interested, the above may merit watching and due diligence to see if you agree these are worth watching or not. It's an odd dynamic that often when we buy a stock others sell the stock. So that is why I just say "small" starting position.  Then watch it and maybe add a little more on dips with the dry powder if the position has merit. Or - just watch it and see if its worth holding as events, performance and the future play out.

Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
_____________

What is your "Dry Powder" in ? a look at USFR .

 Market Talk

The overall stock market is held hostage by perceived events of the future. The playground is filled with Cnbc like traders riding a seesaw of opinion on inflation vs recession and the Fed as the monitor.  How interest rate control will affect the market and the hopeful "soft landing" scenario remains to be seen.

 

Geopolitical global factors are playing out that I will just call disturbing for the purpose of this market and stock post. When we use the word "disturbing" it is quite an understatement with the backdrop of WAR and potential future war-like behavior in the world.

 

How you may ask , do these views affect "stock picking"?  

 Stock Talk

With the above market view , it seems that parking some assets out of the overall market may be prudent.  But what is way to get a good return based on the relative higher interest rates?  Perhaps parking some cash in an ETF with the ability to get in and out in a flexible way and still take advantage of high interest rates is something to think about.   The ETF with symbol USFR may be a decent place to park some dry powder. It is based on variable interest rates of US treasury notes. As  long as Wisdom tree manages the ETF according to the plan goals, it should return a better interest rate than many accumulating every month.  With the variable feature, maybe look forward to an interest rate of over 2% to even over 4% at present.

 USFR

"Fund Overview
The WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury Fund seeks to track the price and yield
performance, before fees and expenses, of an index that measures the performance of
the market for floating rate public obligations of the U.S. Treasury"

https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/-/media/us-media-files/documents/resource-library/fund-fact-sheets/fixed-income/wisdomtree-factsheet-usfr-1648.pd

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
_____________

Devon (DVN) is on my radar but ...

 Market Talk

I've posted my sentiment on the market .  Anybody interested can read my last few posts. So call me a malcontent, I don't care.  This is a snip-it of my sentiment.

The market is like a fickle two- headed beast.  Anybody that keeps up with world events and our adversaries knows how dangerous the global situation has become both to the economy and peace. It feels like the world in on the brink of war exacerbated by Russian aggression to the Ukraine. China and their communist party continue building out hyper-sonic missiles and have been acting very friendly to Russia against the US. Meanwhile, Taiwan wants to live in peace and be left alone.  But alas, China acts aggressive to an independent notion in Taiwan.

The inflation vs recession seesaw keeps teetering back n' forth with the Federal reserve as the playground monitor. The market is in a trading mode. But it has the feel of biding time for the next shoe to drop.

With the above preamble the following is a peasant's view of some stocks that I am watching for possible gain.

Stock Talk

Sometimes to get the real feel of a sector, it makes a difference if you put some skin in the game.  I had previously traded some shares of Devon Energy (DVN) in the 70's for a small gain.  I posted that what good is a 10 % dividend if the stock drops below that much. Well, good ol' Spider Jones here was correct on that call. The DVN stock has dropped to the 48 to 52 range all the way down from the 70's where I dumped it!  That is a big fall and I am glad I missed it.

Now what is in store for DVN now stock watchers ask plaintively.  To answer this question requires a crystal ball into the future price of oil and natural gas.  Here is a snip-it from Devon's website.

"The company's portfolio of oil and gas properties provides stable, environmentally responsible production and a platform for future growth. Devon's fourth quarter 2021 daily production was approximately 300,000 barrels of oil, more than 150,000 barrels of natural gas liquids and about 940 million cubic feet of natural gas."

Well, for today my crystal ball is a little cloudy.  I will say a look at the chart is talking to me that if a looming recession takes hold DVN stock could easily fade to the 30's.  But on the other hand if demand continues and oil and nat gas prices remain stable and move higher, DVN could see the $60 range.  In short, I don't know and doubt if anybody actually knows for sure. DVN is on my radar, that's all though.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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What has changed since my last post on the future? - a ship of fools.

 

Market Talk

It's been awhile since I've posted here. This is because things are still LOUSY in the markets and the geopolitical front all around with war still raging.  

If you want an update, read my prior post on the future and see that nothing has changed except things are getting WORSE not better with two banks not being able to cover deposit withdrawals and the recent Federal reserve  actions to cover the bank's mismanagement.

It all makes it look like morons and greed are the ruling class instead of adults in charge.   However, I will not be surprised after the market shakeout that the Fed presents a view that they are still running the economy show. However, the days of pay no attention to the man behind the curtain are wearing thin on overall investor confidence.  Yet, in the  days between each crisis,  traders scurry to pick up "bargains".   yikes.

Stock Talk

The market seems like a ship of fools at the moment with thieves and scallywags at the helm.  Taking a break from it for now.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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A few musings on the World, The economy AND the future, as of TODAY . - and some "Stock Talk".

 

Market Talk

Today's stock market is a conundrum. It is basically a balance between various looks into of the future, perhaps in about a six-month time outlook.  Trying to foresee or predict can be like looking into parallel universes with different outcomes in each world.

For example, some analysts say we are in a recession right now having had two negative quarters of GDP.  This has always been the definition of a recession.  However, the ruling democrats are masters at changing words to meet the impression they want to portray. In short, political motives are questionable.   In calling the current situation, I was leaning to stagflation where inflation increases, and yet economic growth slows.  I think the economy may be headed into stagflation.  However, recently unemployment has fallen and inflation has slightly subsided making the stock market bulls feel that the Federal reserve may lighten up on interest rate hikes.  So far, the Fed seems determined to continue rate hiking to slow the economy enough to bring down still high inflation. 

So why is unemployment recently decreasing?  People are finally taking lower paying jobs to try to survive the higher prices everywhere. Energy costs being passed on to the consumer is one major cause.  Greed and need are other reasons.  But recently, fuel prices, although high, have slightly subsided.  This is because the economy is being slowed as is the goal of the Federal reserve.  

The collective market has been taking what they like to think of as "green shoots" of positivity as taking the indices higher.   I remain skeptical because when you look at some big tech companies, we see huge layoffs in the making.  For example, Amazon is laying off thousands from the tech division of Alexa.  Ford is another laying off thousands because they are trying to save for the coming slowdown and move to electric vehicles.  The reader may ask where is Ford moving?  Ford is moving from Ohio to Mexico! Should Americans be outraged?  Ford is laying off THOUSANDS of Americans and taking the jobs to other countries!

And yet they expect Americans to buy Fords?   One could ask, why don't the millions of migrants trekking through Mexico to breach into the US just stay in Mexico to assume the jobs that our industry is moving there? 

So many more examples exist of what would be considered high tech coding and manager jobs being eliminated as in twitter's case. They are making those remaining WORK harder. This will lead to discontentment in the work force.

As the Federal reserve continues to raise interest rates what is going to happen to construction jobs?  So just WHO is going to be able to afford buy these Ford ev's made outside of America? Yea, the Dems will offer more incentives, creating more inflation and forcing the Fed to raise rates higher, yet causing a further slowdown in America.  Are you starting to see a pattern?  The Dems seem to have an unbalanced agenda on many policies to the detriment of America. 

The impact of the Russian aggression on the Ukraine hits hard.  The "Putin Russians" involved in supporting this unjust war and crime on humanity are either evil or misguided, or both. The pain being inflicted on both families of dead Russian soldiers that were drafted and Ukrainian defenders AND Ukraine civilians is horrible.

Putin and his cronies are determined to try to bomb Ukraine infrastructure as winter approaches. NATO stands behind Ukraine with the US a leader in the supply of defensive means to give Ukraine a chance to defend themselves. God Bless the defenders but where this all winds up has yet to play out.  I have one hope that the Russian people will rise up and mass protest the war against Ukraine. But alas, such hope gets dim when I read the sentiment of many inside feel they need to win to protect their "motherland".  Why don't they see that there was no real threat to them in the first place and if they just STOP and go back, peace could rain down on them instead of possible nuclear WAR that continues to linger in veiled threats by some Russians in the Kremlin.  The pundits sometimes downplay nuclear war, but it is there like an elephant wearing a dress in the room.   And yet no end is in sight. A harsh winter is coming.  Just give it up poopin' Putin! But they don't (yet)- sigh.

What does all this have to with the stock market you may ask.   With the ensemble of concurrent happenings in the world and our country, paint me market cautious and bearish on the overall market in the near term.  Some stocks may stand out as winners, even in a bear market.

Stock Talk

Here are two stocks on my radar with interesting prospects.  I also note the word "speculation" and use caution in the words "some" not "too much", if any or not.

• VERU - I have posted on this one. Currently underwater in some shares but holding on the basis of lives saved. Does the FDA care? "tbd" says the shadow. BUT VERU has expanded viral indications planned.

• RIGL - Am I crazy to wonder about a penny stock currently under $1 about to be delisted?  The other day, news of FDA approval of treatment that brought a Complete remission of a form of acute Leukemia. RIGL has been a beleaguered stock, under a buck. Perhaps this FDA approval to treat about 1,000 people in the US will capture interest to make a comeback of over a buck a share? RIGL is flirting with a buck but -tbd, only the shadow knows.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rigel-rigl-fda-nod-blood-174

My recent findings on energy stocks?  I had purchased 50 shares of OXY and DVN.  Sometimes, to get the feel of a particular market, it seems like you have to put some "skin in the game".   I learned that energy stocks in oil and gas, in the current economic climate, are just as dicey as the rest of the market. If an oil sheik in Saudi Arabia sneezes about supply or the pundits speak of $60 oil from Russia, the stocks knee jerk all over the place.  Reactions like that remind me of toppy markets and I got out with a small gain. Looking back at recent action, I'm glad I did for now anyway.  That said, DVN is paying quite a good dividend, over 7 %. But the way the stock knee jerks if falls 10 % what good is that?

Stay tuned if you enjoy this Jones report.  It's worth every penny you pay. (that's a joke, ha). This site is just for fun. Somebody please let me know when the fun begins. Maybe when the world gets back to "normal".  What is normal anymore??? Ok , sign me out folks! Thank you for reading.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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