Market Talk
Today's stock market is a conundrum. It is basically a balance between various looks into of the future, perhaps in about a six-month time outlook. Trying to foresee or predict can be like looking into parallel universes with different outcomes in each world.
For example, some analysts say we are in a recession right now having had two negative quarters of GDP. This has always been the definition of a recession. However, the ruling democrats are masters at changing words to meet the impression they want to portray. In short, political motives are questionable. In calling the current situation, I was leaning to stagflation where inflation increases, and yet economic growth slows. I think the economy may be headed into stagflation. However, recently unemployment has fallen and inflation has slightly subsided making the stock market bulls feel that the Federal reserve may lighten up on interest rate hikes. So far, the Fed seems determined to continue rate hiking to slow the economy enough to bring down still high inflation.
So why is unemployment recently decreasing? People are finally taking lower paying jobs to try to survive the higher prices everywhere. Energy costs being passed on to the consumer is one major cause. Greed and need are other reasons. But recently, fuel prices, although high, have slightly subsided. This is because the economy is being slowed as is the goal of the Federal reserve.
The collective market has been taking what they like to think of as "green shoots" of positivity as taking the indices higher. I remain skeptical because when you look at some big tech companies, we see huge layoffs in the making. For example, Amazon is laying off thousands from the tech division of Alexa. Ford is another laying off thousands because they are trying to save for the coming slowdown and move to electric vehicles. The reader may ask where is Ford moving? Ford is moving from Ohio to Mexico! Should Americans be outraged? Ford is laying off THOUSANDS of Americans and taking the jobs to other countries!
And yet they expect Americans to buy Fords? One could ask, why don't the millions of migrants trekking through Mexico to breach into the US just stay in Mexico to assume the jobs that our industry is moving there?
So many more examples exist of what would be considered high tech coding and manager jobs being eliminated as in twitter's case. They are making those remaining WORK harder. This will lead to discontentment in the work force.
As the Federal reserve continues to raise interest rates what is going to happen to construction jobs? So just WHO is going to be able to afford buy these Ford ev's made outside of America? Yea, the Dems will offer more incentives, creating more inflation and forcing the Fed to raise rates higher, yet causing a further slowdown in America. Are you starting to see a pattern? The Dems seem to have an unbalanced agenda on many policies to the detriment of America.
The impact of the Russian aggression on the Ukraine hits hard. The "Putin Russians" involved in supporting this unjust war and crime on humanity are either evil or misguided, or both. The pain being inflicted on both families of dead Russian soldiers that were drafted and Ukrainian defenders AND Ukraine civilians is horrible.
Putin and his cronies are determined to try to bomb Ukraine infrastructure as winter approaches. NATO stands behind Ukraine with the US a leader in the supply of defensive means to give Ukraine a chance to defend themselves. God Bless the defenders but where this all winds up has yet to play out. I have one hope that the Russian people will rise up and mass protest the war against Ukraine. But alas, such hope gets dim when I read the sentiment of many inside feel they need to win to protect their "motherland". Why don't they see that there was no real threat to them in the first place and if they just STOP and go back, peace could rain down on them instead of possible nuclear WAR that continues to linger in veiled threats by some Russians in the Kremlin. The pundits sometimes downplay nuclear war, but it is there like an elephant wearing a dress in the room. And yet no end is in sight. A harsh winter is coming. Just give it up poopin' Putin! But they don't (yet)- sigh.
What does all this have to with the stock market you may ask. With the ensemble of concurrent happenings in the world and our country, paint me market cautious and bearish on the overall market in the near term. Some stocks may stand out as winners, even in a bear market.
Stock Talk
Here are two stocks on my radar with interesting prospects. I also note the word "speculation" and use caution in the words "some" not "too much", if any or not.
- VERU - I have posted on this one. Currently underwater in some shares but holding on the basis of lives saved. Does the FDA care? "tbd" says the shadow. BUT VERU has expanded viral indications planned.
- RIGL - Am I crazy to wonder about a penny stock currently under $1 about to be delisted? The other day, news of FDA approval of treatment that brought a Complete remission of a form of acute Leukemia. RIGL has been a beleaguered stock, under a buck. Perhaps this FDA approval to treat about 1,000 people in the US will capture interest to make a comeback of over a buck a share? RIGL is flirting with a buck but -tbd, only the shadow knows.
My recent findings on energy stocks? I had purchased 50 shares of OXY and DVN. Sometimes, to get the feel of a particular market, it seems like you have to put some "skin in the game". I learned that energy stocks in oil and gas, in the current economic climate, are just as dicey as the rest of the market. If an oil sheik in Saudi Arabia sneezes about supply or the pundits speak of $60 oil from Russia, the stocks knee jerk all over the place. Reactions like that remind me of toppy markets and I got out with a small gain. Looking back at recent action, I'm glad I did for now anyway. That said, DVN is paying quite a good dividend, over 7 %. But the way the stock knee jerks if falls 10 % what good is that?
Stay tuned if you enjoy this Jones report. It's worth every penny you pay. (that's a joke, ha). This site is just for fun. Somebody please let me know when the fun begins. Maybe when the world gets back to "normal". What is normal anymore??? Ok , sign me out folks! Thank you for reading.
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This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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