Market Talk
With
the Fed reducing interest rates, some stocks would seem to be geared up
to possibly do well. Conversely, the market indices at all time highs can be cause for pause to be circumspect. The world's geopolitical risk is high and the country has many difficult issues to yet play out.
Let's talk "trading" for a moment. It's a fair notion to be optimistic about a stock that you pick as a potential winner but best to be cautiously optimistic. So many factors are out of our control.
One strategy of traders is to use an IRA account and be nimble in a buy low sell higher philosophy. It hurts to lose especially in an IRA. But an IRA investing and trading account offers advantages at the end of the year when filling out your tax forms. If you have a loss , well you lose the tax writeoff. But if you have a lot of trades and the aggregate is a gain, there is no need to yet record the gain on a schedule D.
Lately, it seems a strategy to maintain cash or "dry powder" may be a way to address risk. Taking some of the gains off the top to see if the run will continue at new highs and stay nimble. Staying "long" in a bull market can pay off and be "fun". But when things change and turn down- the loss that can happen can turn into a house of regret.
To reduce risk, maybe schnitzel some gains along the way as Cramer likes to say. And sometimes, ya just gotta cut losses to fight again. Sometimes, when a favored stock dips, it may be a good time to add gingerly. But don't chase a stock with losses that could make a position become "too deep".
If trading - stay circumspect, stay humble and be aware of the "ying - yang" of the market and stocks, that's all. A mistake is to get to get "too bullish" on our notions that it makes us arrogant and we put in "too much" in any one pick. Key words here are maybe "some" and "not too much" to and maintain "dry powder".
The notion I'm trying to convey is to try Not to be "ying-yanged" by the fickle markets and make some money !
Stock Talk
Rather than covering specifics, there are things happening in the world that bring
to mind a few stocks and symbols, These are presented here for the
reader, if interested, to explore on their own. Refer to prior posts below for a summary of some. These are not buy or sell recommendations, but they have interesting aspects to watch.
URA, PLTR, MO, KGC, IAG , highlighted recently
PR : Energy. oil and nat gas reserves in America.
URAX, double bull nuclear play, maybe short term
GEV , spinoff of GE in natural gas turbines, above the typical sp range of stocks here but watching for dips.
Jones Speculation corner symbols to watch:
Biotech : ONCY, ANVS,
AI contactor : BBAI.
another gold miner: now in the $3 range: BTG
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Perhaps the regular readers will notice a few new symbols above.
Do you notice a new symbol where insiders have been buying and the symbol pays a near 4.3 % dividend?
Permian Resources (PR)
https://permianres.com/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/insiders-snap-2-strong-buy-072202423.html
"This makes Permian one of the region’s largest pure-play hydrocarbon
E&P firms, and on September 17 the company announced the closing of a
bolt-on acquisition to its Delaware Basin assets. The acquisition, a
deal with Occidental, added ~29,500 net acres and ~9,900 net royalty
acres, along with a significant amount of midstream infrastructure, to
Permian’s existing Reeves County, Texas positions.
In another
update that should interest investors, Permian announced on September 3 a
large increase to its regular base dividend. The dividend payment,
formerly at 6 cents per common share, has been increased by 150% and is
now set at 15 cents per share to be paid out starting in 3Q24. The new
annualized rate of 60 cents per share will give a forward yield of 4.3%
based on the current share value.
Permian attracted a recent large
buy from an insider, company director William Quinn. Quinn made two
purchases, on September 10 and 11, that totaled 312,429 shares – and
cost more than $3.99 million."
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next, a chat on Energy needs of AI ....
The
advent of AI onto the world's table has created new perceived needs by
the data centers required to support AI. One such need based on demand
is the humongous cry for energy required. To address that question, I
inserted a query into the number 1 AI application used today, Chat gpt
itself:
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"The energy required for a ChatGPT query versus a Google search can differ significantly due to how each system operates.
Google Search:
Typically, Google searches are computationally lighter since the system
mainly retrieves and ranks web pages. The process involves web
crawling, indexing, and retrieving information from pre-built data
structures (search indexes). Google also optimizes for energy efficiency
across its vast data centers.
ChatGPT Query:
Large language models like GPT, on the other hand, are more
computationally intensive because they require processing vast amounts
of data in real-time. When you make a query to ChatGPT, the system runs a
neural network with billions of parameters, generating a response from
scratch rather than retrieving it from a pre-built index. This makes the
energy consumption higher compared to a search engine query.
Estimations
- Google Search:
A single search typically consumes about 0.3 watt-hours of energy
(based on estimates for the infrastructure and network energy use).
- ChatGPT
Query: Estimates for a single inference from large models like GPT-3
can range between 10 to 100 times more energy than a Google search,
depending on the model size and the complexity of the query.
The
specific energy difference varies based on factors like data center
efficiency, model size, and the complexity of the query." Chat gpt
response to query on 09/24/24
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one energy ETF to watch- URA
Using
the above energy example points to a huge need for increasing energy
capacity, an ETF on Nuclear energy may be one to watch with an over 6 %
dividend is - URA.
AI stock symbols on watch: PLTR, BBAI
Now PLTR is starting to see short selling and recent gains may be challenged or harder to continue. At the same time, it is almost a "meme" stock with many small investors believing PLTR is the stock of the future. PLTR does have some actual earnings that add to the interest. Is PLTR reaching a peak? the shorts say yes where as the hoards of AI enthusiasts say let it fly. nobody knows here, do you? if a gain is there, maybe schnitzel some is a way.
BBAI is getting government contracts. BUT it has a lot of outstanding shares so it's a spec be careful not too much stock.
Other Stocks to Watch in this market?
Altria Group, Inc (MO) : MO already has
one of the highest paying dividends in the entire market. MO has been
consistently increasing their dividend to shareholders year after year. Watching MO for a dip may be opportunity to
inch into one of the highest dividend paying stocks with positive eps.
Kinross Gold (KGC):
The fiat currencies in the US and the world are being devalued by
increasing money supply and inflation. Gold has NOW recently passed the
stubborn $2600 / Oz level. Kinross Gold has been highlighted here
showing the mining footprint that spans Canada and the Americas.
Suggested in the 6's, the current times of loose fiscal policy to buy
votes point to staying the course with Kinross because support and a
next level run on surging Gold, along with a stable dividend makes KGC a
relatively solid stock to hold some. I'm staying / holding some stock
in Kinross. May add more KGC on market dips. The BRICS moves towards a
digital currency could seriously threaten the US dollar. Gold could
easily double and more in the not too distant future and a Gold miner
like Kinross with already growing eps and dividend could earn reward in
share price.
https://stockstowatch.blogspot.com/2024/04/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-kinross-gold-corporation-kgc-215737497.html
IAMGOLD (IAG):
Another stock to keep an eye on is IAG with trending higher earnings,
similar to Kinross. However, IAG offers no dividend and is about $5 at a
recent high. Keep an eye on the gold prices over the next month
because IAG earnings as well as KGC could surge if Gold starts climbing
higher as predicted by many economic pundits.
If interested in other current watch stocks recently opined on here, scroll back to see posts on other stocks we are watching.
For
now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any
particular day may change in the future days to come. That is why we
watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time. But
trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do
things. If you think too deep about world events and the recent
alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor. In
all - we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it
accordingly. Remember, never get arrogant in our various notions
because things do change in the market and individual stocks are subject
to many factors outside of our control.. So we try to -stay aware.
With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.
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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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