Stock Talk
Oncolytics Biotech (ONCY) is sitting under $1 and remains an underdog speculative biotech stock. Folks, before delving further here, let's be honest. With penny stocks, each has its reason for being there.
This report looks at both the bear and the bull of the matter. Yet within that uncertainty may hold opportunity. To address risk, we often use the words:
Maybe some — not too much.
There is also Nasdaq listing risk if ONCY remains below the $1 minimum bid requirement long enough to fall out of compliance.
But something IS different this time.
With biotech trials, things typically take years to know the outcomes — positive or negative.
With ONCY, that tired script may be changing. Early Objective Response Rate (ORR) results from the new REO-033 colorectal cancer trial are expected in just months, NOT years.
That makes the early ORR readout very important. It could provide the first indication of whether Pelareorep (Pela) is working and help determine whether ONCY moves toward the larger pivotal Part B.
So, let's talk “What IF?” for a moment.
What IF early treatment in the Pela REO-033 arm shows obvious and outstanding results in tumor reductions?
What could that set in motion?
And why could the results of a small earlier trial called REO-022 suddenly become very important?
Perhaps earlier Pela results helped get the FDA's attention.
Remember, this follows the historical results of the small REO-022 trial — and other small Pela trials in which significant responses have been reported. In advanced anal cancer, for example, two Complete Responses (CRs) were reported among 14 evaluable third-line patients receiving Pela plus atezolizumab.
Many skeptics will point to a long road of small trials and the failure, so far, to advance Pela successfully through larger trial settings.
The word “history” is frequently used by disgruntled shareholders, shorts and naysayers when discussing ONCY.
But new management has taken steps forward and reached important regulatory milestones, including alignment with the FDA on trial planning that could potentially streamline the path toward approval.
Meanwhile, ONCY continues to generate spirited discussion among retail investors on various stock forums.
From Jones' view, that “buzz” seems to be growing lately.
Something has changed. So let's examine the dots — and where they may even lead.
Dot Talk
This report is specific to speculation on things that “could” happen “if” the results of an earlier cancer trial called REO-022 repeat in the larger colorectal cancer trial now underway.
First, an important caveat. REO-022 was a small study. The colorectal cancer group discussed here consisted of 15 patients, and comparisons with standard-of-care results are historical rather than from a control group in the same trial.
Still, the numbers got attention.
The REO-022 results, as reported by ONCY, were:
ORR (Objective Response Rate): 33% (vs. approximately 6–11% historical)
Median PFS (Progression-Free Survival): 16.6 months (vs. 5.7 months historical)
Median OS (Overall Survival): 27.0 months (vs. 11.2 months historical)
Reference: Oncolytics Biotech, February 4, 2026 — “Oncolytics Biotech Receives FDA Fast Track Designation for Pelareorep in 2L KRAS-Mutant MSS Metastatic Colorectal Cancer.”
Now Comes REO-033
REO-033 is designed to put those earlier results to a much tougher test. Part A will enroll approximately 60 patients, divided into two groups of about 30 patients each.
One group receives the standard treatment of FOLFIRI (chemotherapy) plus bevacizumab (generic Avastin by Roche/Genentech).
The other receives the same treatment plus Pela.
This time, Pela will not be compared only with historical results. The trial will directly compare patients receiving Pela with patients in the same trial receiving the same treatment without Pela.
And one of the first things to watch will be ORR — Objective Response Rate.
Early ORR could be THE first major indication of whether REO-033 is succeeding — or running into trouble.
And that brings us to the “IFs.”
IF #1 — Does REO-022 Repeat?
IF the Pela group begins showing an ORR anywhere near the 33% reported in REO-022 — while the group without Pela remains substantially lower — “things” could start getting interesting very quickly.
That would provide something REO-022 could not: a direct comparison between patients receiving Pela and patients in the same trial receiving the same treatment without Pela.
IF #2 — What Could Early ORR Set in Motion?
ONCY does not necessarily have to wait years for mature PFS and OS results before “things” start happening.
IF early Part A ORR results are strong enough, they could help support ONCY's decision to move into the larger pivotal Part B and provide the basis for further discussions with the FDA.
So IF early ORR is strong, the direction of the Pela program could become much clearer long before the final survival numbers are known.
IF #3 — Could This Lead Toward Accelerated Approval?
This is where the FDA pathway becomes important.
The FDA has provided written feedback on a proposed pivotal Part B in which ORR and duration of response could potentially support accelerated approval, while PFS could support full approval.
Final agreement on key elements of the registration program would still require further FDA discussions.
So, the potential path is:
Strong Part A results → further FDA discussions → pivotal Part B → potential accelerated approval based on ORR and duration of response.
That's a significant “IF” — but it is now a regulatory path that ONCY and the FDA have actually discussed.
IF #4 — What About More Patients?
There is another important difference between REO-022 and REO-033.
REO-022 produced its reported results in patients with KRAS-mutant cancer.
REO-033 has broadened the study to patients with RAS-mutant cancer, which includes KRAS as well as other RAS mutations.
That creates both risk and opportunity.
IF Pela does not work as well across this broader group, it could weaken the overall results.
But IF Pela works well across the broader RAS population, many more cancer patients could potentially become eligible for treatment.
And that could mean addressing a larger unmet need.
IF #5 — What IF One Group Responds and Another Doesn't?
REO-033 knows the mutation characteristics of the patients entering the study.
So, what IF the KRAS patients respond strongly to Pela but another RAS subgroup doesn't?
That could help identify which cancer patients benefit most from Pela and potentially influence how ONCY designs or focuses Part B.
Now flip that “IF.”
What IF strong responses show up across the broader RAS population?
Then Pela may not only be repeating the REO-022 story.
It could be expanding it.
There are a lot of “IFs” here.
Some could turn out positive. Some could turn out negative.
But unlike many biotech stories, investors may not have to wait years before the first important answers begin arriving.
Early ORR should begin telling the story.
IF it disappoints, that will tell us something.
But IF REO-033 begins showing the kind of response seen in REO-022, then some of these “IFs” could start becoming reality.
And that's when...
“Things” could get VERY interesting.
Enough “IFs!”
Show me the damn ORR — and let's see.
Coming soon enough, it seems.
The Jones Take
In my last post, I wrote about finding opportunity in uncertainty.
Readers should also know that I previously wrote about The Trinity Approach. That represents my personal conviction that there may be something special about Pelareorep as a missing immune activator that current cancer treatments need to become more effective.
That said, I will not suggest anybody buy hordes of ONCY stock — or even buy any.
But for me, I can say this:
I personally intend to maintain a position of 1,000 ONCY shares while further CRC data is reported on the ORR. And if “things” work out, I may own more.
That's my speculation. That's my retail risk.
And in closing, I have absolutely ZERO affiliation with ONCY or any outlet. I'm just another hopeful watcher who believes there may be something to this Pela — adapted from nature to help the fighters fight.
Some — not too much.
And stay watchful.
- Jones Report
