Pick Your Narrative — Stay Watchful

 Sunday Edition

Market Talk

The market indices have been floating at or near all-time highs, even against the backdrop of war and ongoing tensions tied to Iran and the broader Middle East.

One view is that these tensions resolve quickly—oil pulls back, inflation eases, and markets continue higher. Another is that tensions drag on—oil stays elevated, inflation lingers, and pressure builds on both the economy and markets.

Both sound possible… and yet the market impacts often seem to contradict each other. At times, the market seems to price one outcome—then quickly lean the other way.

In one narrative, markets go on and themes continue—almost “business as usual” in some sectors like AI buildouts. In another, higher costs start to bite. Affordability gets squeezed. And throw in the possibility that firms lean more on AI than human resources… and job losses begin to enter the picture.

Perhaps that second narrative brings inflation back into the mix—reducing the chances of rate cuts going forward.

With market indices at or near all-time highs, a clouded narrative may begin to fuel hesitation… and a bit of market fatigue. On the other hand, markets sometimes seem to ignore Main Street hardship, trading instead on Wall Street exuberance.

For example, Friday’s trading—with the Dow off nearly 500—saw a broad hit across stocks. Perhaps a sign of market exhaustion beginning… or not.

Recall last year—some stocks climbed, then faded as earnings reality set in.

Each investor has to weigh their own narrative. There are all kinds of sayings—“it’s not timing the market, it’s time in the market.” On the other hand, being aware of how corrections can hurt a balance matters too.

Where this leads isn’t always clear. But with markets near highs, a correction is always possible. And when it comes, it often doesn’t matter which sector was the darling—the tide can take out all boats.

That’s the idea.

It’s always more fun to see foresight play out in the bullish sense… with some skin in the game. But the other side is staying aware of positioning—and the risk of downside.

Sometimes the saying we use is “some… not too much.” And “maintain dry powder”—to see how things play out.

Now we can start to break it down—because each sector, each stock, has its own narrative.

Stock Talk

Let’s use Intel as a watch stock example.

For years, Intel powered our laptops and desktops—“Intel Inside”—quality chips for everyday use.

The notion of Intel finally gaining ground in the AI world helped the stock suddenly surge. Some were in some—nice.

But now, with INTC over the 100 mark, investors may pause… and start looking inside with a bit more scrutiny.

The last report showed Non-GAAP EPS of $0.53… while GAAP came in at -$0.09. The market chose its number—and the stock followed.

But non-GAAP earnings remove expenses a company chooses to exclude.

No watcher can deny that once INTC pushed past 100, the stock surged further on reports of Apple possibly using Intel in new products. Did it seem a little curious… the timing of it all?

That’s where narratives can start to drift.

It’s more fun to stay bullish… and ride the wave. But after a big run, it can become time to stay aware of the narrative… versus the reality.

GAAP… versus non-GAAP.
Story… versus execution.

Jones way—more greens than reds - "Some" - and maintain dry powder.

In other stocks, no need here to belabor the point.

People are paying up at the pump and the grocery. Discretionary spending may slow… and personal debt may rise.

Not great for the economy. Not great for markets.

Not the most “fun” way to close.

But it’s no fun to give it back… after a good run.

No need to belabor the point in one Sunday Edition.

More will come… as markets, events, and companies play out.

Stay Watchful - Things can change.

- Jones Report

This site is just for fun and insight, with no sponsors and no affiliations. If you like this free Jones Report, tell a friend. Why not?

________

If interested - scroll back and view notes on other stocks, we watch here at the Jones report.  Why not? With the caveat that things change and we try to stay aware - It's all FREE to read and make your own calls and decisions.  Finally - maintain some dry powder and trade or invest according to your own due diligence.

______________

More later so ....Stay tuned, if you dare!

For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with reality.  Looking ahead a few months may be a way to do things - but thinking too deeply about world events and the recent alliances forming, can make projecting ahead a dicey endeavor. 

All in all - we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly.  Never get arrogant in our notions because things do change - and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside our control. So, we try to -stay aware.

With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.  This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.

Stay Watchful.

- Jones Report

This site is just for fun and insight, with no sponsors and no affiliations. If you like this free Jones Report, tell a friend. Why not?

________

If interested - scroll back and view notes on other stocks, we watch here at the Jones report.  Why not? With the caveat that things change and we try to stay aware - It's all FREE to read and make your own calls and decisions.  Finally - maintain some dry powder and trade or invest according to your own due diligence.

______________

More later so ....Stay tuned, if you dare!

For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with reality.  Looking ahead a few months may be a way to do things - but thinking too deeply about world events and the recent alliances forming, can make projecting ahead a dicey endeavor. 

All in all - we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly.  Never get arrogant in our notions because things do change - and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside our control. So, we try to -stay aware.

With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.  This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.

Moonshine and Horsefeathers vs Hard-Money Miners: KGC and HL

    

Sunday Edition

Call it opinion. Call it observation.

Jones watches stocks of wide and varied interests, but this report focuses on something quietly brewing.

While the crowd chased fancy-pants momentum and AI rotations, quality gold and silver miners spent months lagging and consolidating despite improving fundamentals.

Yet despite improving earnings, buybacks, balance-sheet strength, and corporate governance, quality miners like KGC and HL continue to lag many of the market’s momentum favorites.

Back during the crypto mining craze, investors rewarded dilution, executive featherbedding, and endless spending tied to future promises.

Today, quality precious metals miners are producing something very different:
real earnings,
real cash flow,
real balance-sheet improvement,
and real shareholder value.

Take HL for example.

Hecla recently paid off ALL long-term debt and now sits sweetly positioned smack dab in America’s silver belt as the largest silver producer in the United States.

Meanwhile KGC recently posted roughly 70 cents per share in quarterly earnings along with major free cash flow generation while continuing shareholder returns and buybacks — yet still trades at valuations that appear completely out of proportion to the money being produced.

It is becoming increasingly doubtful that gold and silver are simply going to “fade away.”

Yet every time gold drops a mere hundred dollars or so, parts of the financial media jump all over it as though the entire hard-money miner trade just collapsed.

With ongoing fiat devaluation, growing industrial silver demand tied to AI infrastructure, electrification, and solar expansion, the underlying metals themselves appear more likely to continue rising over time — as they historically have.

The market eventually resets imbalances like this.

Seems worth holding some while the market sorts itself out.

If recent consolidation continues, something brewing beneath the hard-money miners may erupt sooner than many realize.

Stay Watchful.

- Jones Report

This site is just for fun and insight, with no sponsors and no affiliations. If you like this free Jones Report, tell a friend. Why not?

________

If interested - scroll back and view notes on other stocks, we watch here at the Jones report.  Why not? With the caveat that things change and we try to stay aware - It's all FREE to read and make your own calls and decisions.  Finally - maintain some dry powder and trade or invest according to your own due diligence.

______________

More later so ....Stay tuned, if you dare!

For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with reality.  Looking ahead a few months may be a way to do things - but thinking too deeply about world events and the recent alliances forming, can make projecting ahead a dicey endeavor. 

All in all - we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly.  Never get arrogant in our notions because things do change - and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside our control. So, we try to -stay aware.

With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.  This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.

Sunday Edition — Watch Stocks in a Shifting Market

     

Market Talk

The market and world remain in somewhat tumultuous times. The indices have climbed to all-time highs, yet volatility still lingers. Some Jones watch stocks were pointed out at much lower levels than where they sit today. Even now, some still seem tradeable, but the same buy-and-hold or trading approach doesn’t always feel right. At times, taking a gain — or cutting a loss — or trimming some to generate income may be the better course.

New positions should not be jumped into willy-nilly. Some stocks can be good long-term holds, but this market may not forgive overexposure or being overweight at the wrong time. For many retail investors, higher-priced names may be better approached one share at a time — just to get involved. Having some skin in a new issue can also help get a feel for how it trades. Owning a few shares of Intel at 30 is quite different than taking the same position near 100. If FOMO exists, even a very small starting position — a share or two — can scratch the itch without taking out hide. Dollar-cost averaging may be the better way to navigate this market.

Trimming into strength can also make sense. Taking something off after a gain — while holding a core position if conviction remains — can help manage risk while still participating if the move continues.

The watch stocks here are, for the most part, potential long-term holds, but each carries its own dynamics and market perception. As such, changing tact — managing reward and risk — becomes an individual strategy. This is why the Jones Report does not make buy or sell calls. However, the Jones Watch stocks chosen tend to have particular aspects that can allow them to stand out, sometimes sooner rather than later.

Stock Talk

A few names worth watching:

• Intel Corporation (INTC) — continues to find its footing as the data center and AI buildout evolves. CPUs still matter.

• Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) — a Jones watch stock that was pointed out earlier, tied to the power side of the AI buildout. The story has been outlined in prior Sunday Editions. The market may be starting to get the flick, but as always, sizing and timing matter.

• GlobalFoundries (GFS) — another Jones watch name, tied to the U.S. manufacturing side of next-generation chips, including power. A quieter player, but part of the broader theme that has been building.

• V2X Inc. (VVX) — has shown strong and fast earnings growth in recent quarters. The coming report on May 4 will be watched to see if expectations — which have also grown — are met, along with future guidance. The Tempest buggy may play into it, though the market does not appear to be watching that angle yet. In a volatile market, often demanding perfection, it’s hard to predict. That said, VVX has attributes — earnings and growth — that make it an interesting stock to watch.

• AeroVironment (AVAV) — no longer just a drone story. LOCUST, a mobile laser to track and take down drones, has moved beyond concept with real deliveries and testing. Initial systems have been procured, with further deployments being looked at. The BlueHalo acquisition brings enhanced RF detection to get the ones that belie radar. The system is designed to evolve, allowing for sensor upgrades over time. As pointed out, AVAV sits in a volatile range — interesting, but maybe a one share at a time.

• Kinross Gold (KGC) — solid earnings and still looks undervalued at these levels.

• Hecla Mining (HL) — still waiting on silver to get some respect.

• Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) — shares have faded recently, now around the low 60s. Interesting prospects and contracts, but the market appears to be waiting to see if earnings can catch up with some of the more “science project” programs.

Wild Card Biotechs — Speculative Corner

Two biotech stocks in the “spec” category remain watch stocks — perhaps a little “some” stocks.

• Oncolytics Biotech (ONCY) — sitting just under $1. The CEO has been pointing toward a strategy that leans on big pharma for implementation. The market appears to be watching it on a bit of a see-saw — with the prospect of a partner on one side, and the possibility of dilution on the other. One to watch. The science, as highlighted in a prior Sunday Edition, keeps the interest here. The reality of the effort involved keeps it measured in “some.” (The Trinity Approach)

https://stockstowatch.blogspot.com/2025/09/special-report-trinity-approach.html

• Annovis Bio (ANVS) — focused on Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s, with buntanetap showing signals in early studies, including a recent publication in a Nature portfolio journal. Still early and very speculative, but one that continues to surface.

Bonus Round — A Few Higher Dividend Names

In a volatile market, sometimes it’s worth looking at a few higher dividend names — even if they sit at higher price ranges than typically mentioned here.

• Kimberly-Clark (KMB) — steady name with a long dividend history.
• Procter & Gamble (PG) — another staple that tends to hold up when things get choppy.
• Altria Group (MO) — still offers yield, and perhaps more interesting if it finds its way back into the 60s rather than the 70s.

With names like these, it may simply be a matter of picking up a share or two over time.

Close

The market will do what it does — we watch, adjust, and stay involved.
Size it. Trim it. Add on dips when it feels right. Manage the risk. Keep dry powder.

Stay Watchful.

- Jones Report

This site is just for fun and insight, with no sponsors and no affiliations. If you like this free Jones Report, tell a friend. Why not?

________

If interested - scroll back and view notes on other stocks, we watch here at the Jones report.  Why not? With the caveat that things change and we try to stay aware - It's all FREE to read and make your own calls and decisions.  Finally - maintain some dry powder and trade or invest according to your own due diligence.

______________

More later so ....Stay tuned, if you dare!

For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with reality.  Looking ahead a few months may be a way to do things - but thinking too deeply about world events and the recent alliances forming, can make projecting ahead a dicey endeavor. 

All in all - we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly.  Never get arrogant in our notions because things do change - and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside our control. So, we try to -stay aware.

With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.  This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.

Two American Defense Stocks Looking More Interesting: AVAV and VVX

         

Stock Talk

The modern battlefield is making one thing clear: low-cost drones are forcing militaries to rethink defense spending. AVAV and VVX are looking more interesting, with each tied to newer counter-drone offerings. Both systems also appear built around one compelling battlefield feature: fast mobility. An interesting aspect of both systems is the use of Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) platforms, as the government sometimes prefers ready-to-go solutions.

AeroVironment (AVAV), already known for military grade drones, drew added attention following a recent 60 Minutes segment with Lesley Stahl showcasing a new AVAV offering called the LOCUST laser system. A mobile laser platform with low cost per shot could prove compelling in the years ahead.

However, widespread sales of advanced laser systems can face hurdles, including export controls, production scale-up, field power requirements, and military procurement timelines. One very interesting aspect is the report that a LOCUST laser system was rolled onto a U.S. Navy ship and successfully tested against multiple drones.

V2X, Inc. (VVX) is a new stock being introduced here on The Jones Report.

About V2X

V2X is a global defense support company with about 16,000 employees serving U.S. and allied missions in logistics, readiness, security, and technology support.

Unlike more story-driven names, VVX already appears to have a solid earnings base through defense systems support, logistics, readiness contracts, and programs tied to F-16 aircraft worldwide. In addition, VVX has developed the Tempest mobile anti-drone / interceptor system, already being deployed in Ukraine according to some interesting videos on the internet.

One advantage of Tempest over laser systems may be better foul-weather usefulness and longer reach. In that light, each system may complement the other — laser for smaller swarm drones, and Tempest for tougher threats or targets at longer distances.

Trading Notes

AVAV has shown strength but has also traded volatile, and the shares are not cheap. Chasing strength is not always the Jones way. If interested, maybe very small share entries on dips and patience, letting the story and numbers continue to develop.

VVX appears to have stronger current earnings metrics, but recent large-holder selling may still be creating some stock overhang. The quarterly report is due May 4, and the market will likely be watching closely. Prior positive earnings and the Tempest system put VVX in the very interesting category here at The Jones Report.

Stay Watchful.

- Jones Report

This site is just for fun and insight, with no sponsors and no affiliations. If you like this free Jones Report, tell a friend. Why not?

________

If interested - scroll back and view notes on other stocks, we watch here at the Jones report.  Why not? With the caveat that things change and we try to stay aware - It's all FREE to read and make your own calls and decisions.  Finally - maintain some dry powder and trade or invest according to your own due diligence.

______________

More later so ....Stay tuned, if you dare!

For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with reality.  Looking ahead a few months may be a way to do things - but thinking too deeply about world events and the recent alliances forming, can make projecting ahead a dicey endeavor. 

All in all - we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly.  Never get arrogant in our notions because things do change - and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside our control. So, we try to -stay aware.

With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.  This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.

The Crowd Watched GPUs — Intel Went to Work

        

Stock Talk

Yesterday’s Jones Report highlighted the power-chip side of the AI buildout through NVTS, with GFS tied in as the U.S.-based manufacturing angle.

Today’s stronger-than-expected report from Intel Corporation (INTC) highlights another understated trend now coming to light — AI data centers do not run on GPUs alone.

Intel has been a Jones watch stock, and today’s report is showing why.

Training is the heavy computing process of teaching AI models, while inference is when those trained models are put to work answering questions, making decisions, and serving users in real time. Today’s AI data centers do both, and upgraded Xeon 6 CPUs, including Granite Rapids and Sierra Forest, appear to be gaining traction as Intel plays a bigger role in supporting both sides of that equation.

For years, Intel carried the heavy lift of designing advanced chips while also building them in its own American fabs — a costly path that may have weighed on earnings while others outsourced production. But that same strategy may now be looking wiser, especially with geopolitical concerns about America being too dependent on outsourcing. Intel is advancing into 18A process technology with U.S.-based production centered in Arizona and development leadership in Oregon.

Looking further ahead, others, such as Elon Musk, have already signaled interest in Intel’s future 14A process for projects tied to Tesla, SpaceX, and broader ambitions. Whether that becomes large business or not, it suggests Intel’s roadmap is being noticed beyond today’s quarter.

Apparently, the market is starting to notice.

That said, the stock also ran hard on the report, and sharp moves can cool off before the next leg higher. If one sees the trend but is not yet involved, there may be no need to rush in. Sometimes just watching and/or just edging in with small portions to test the market and future can be a way to roll with it.

Stay Watchful.

- Jones Report

This site is just for fun and insight, with no sponsors and no affiliations. If you like this free Jones Report, tell a friend. Why not?

________

If interested - scroll back and view notes on other stocks, we watch here at the Jones report.  Why not? With the caveat that things change and we try to stay aware - It's all FREE to read and make your own calls and decisions.  Finally - maintain some dry powder and trade or invest according to your own due diligence.

______________

More later so ....Stay tuned, if you dare!

For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with reality.  Looking ahead a few months may be a way to do things - but thinking too deeply about world events and the recent alliances forming, can make projecting ahead a dicey endeavor. 

All in all - we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly.  Never get arrogant in our notions because things do change - and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside our control. So, we try to -stay aware.

With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.  This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.

Once Again — NVTS Revisited, GFS Too

       

Stock Talk

It’s been noted here that there are plenty of stocks worth posting about.

Here is one that appears to be quietly gathering some bullish interest and could be worth watching — Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS).

Oh my. We actually posted about this one in a Sunday Edition some time ago. For those interested, feel free, compliments of The Jones Report.

https://stockstowatch.blogspot.com/2025/10/

Apparently, the market may be starting to get the flick.

Another Jones watch stock is GFS, a U.S.-based maker set up to manufacture NVTS power chips.

Stay Watchful.

- Jones Report

This site is just for fun and insight, with no sponsors and no affiliations. If you like this free Jones Report, tell a friend. Why not?

________

If interested - scroll back and view notes on other stocks, we watch here at the Jones report.  Why not? With the caveat that things change and we try to stay aware - It's all FREE to read and make your own calls and decisions.  Finally - maintain some dry powder and trade or invest according to your own due diligence.

______________

More later so ....Stay tuned, if you dare!

For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with reality.  Looking ahead a few months may be a way to do things - but thinking too deeply about world events and the recent alliances forming, can make projecting ahead a dicey endeavor. 

All in all - we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly.  Never get arrogant in our notions because things do change - and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside our control. So, we try to -stay aware.

With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.  This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.