Market Talk — Stay Nimble, Get Paid

       

Market Talk

This market isn’t rewarding stubbornness. It’s rewarding movement.

We’re seeing quick pops, quick drops, and a lot of second-guessing in between. That kind of tape doesn’t favor “set it and forget it.” It favors taking gains when they show up and cutting losses before they turn into something bigger.
If trading, no need to be perfect.

Just don’t let a winner turn into a loser — and don’t let a small loss grow legs.

Perhaps you’ve been a reader here for a while. Last year we saw some really positive returns — some over four times. Examples: LRCX in the 60s, KTOS in the teens, and others like quantum names such as QBTS in low single digits. The same for the gold and silver miners like KGC and HL.

One tenet is to preserve gains and cut losses.

To stay objective and disciplined, we should also note that this 2026 year has been a choppy market — at times priced to perfection on themes like AI, without recognition of the enormous costs in energy and resources required to make it all happen. Companies are all chasing their own AI agenda, competing and spending.

Then add the Iran war that has been marketed to the people as a “four to six week excursion.” Maybe. Maybe not. War with entrenched radical Islamic's remains to play out, even as claims are made they’ve been thinned out.

The latest is the U.S. embargo on Iran’s oil trade. That may soften the chop and create buying opportunities — perhaps not in oil stocks.

We are noticing some speculative stocks emerging and popping — energy names like OKLO in the small modular reactor space, and quantum computing as a possible lower-energy alternative to GPU data centers.

If venturing into that space, consider the pros and cons — reality vs. hype.

New positions in stocks like OKLO and QBTS may be good trades or not. But we should remember the old paradigm — short sellers tend to jump on stocks that pop fast with no earnings and operating losses. That often follows a move that overextends itself.

That said, when institutions decide to lock into a sector, sometimes a run can last longer than expected.

The bottom line is to be circumspect. Test with smaller positions. Sometimes the only way to really feel how a stock trades is to put some skin in the game if you believe the bull case.

But skin should not necessarily be part of your own hide.

As an example of that, we tested our thesis on oil and gas stocks DVN and PR in the Permian Basin. Our temporary conclusion is the oil sector is too volatile to try to trade cleanly right now.

In this “new normal,” other areas seem better suited.

Yesterday was “quantum day.” The QBTS CEO took a shot across the bow at NVDA and its high-energy GPU approach — a reply to the earlier claim that quantum wasn’t ready for prime time.

QBTS, IONQ, and maybe SKYT are on watch.

If you’re testing a thesis — especially one that already popped — keep it measured. It takes more than a day to know if volume is institutions or just retail chatter that fades as fast as it came.

Another piece starting to make sense in this market is getting paid while you wait.

Covered calls aren’t flashy, but in a market that stalls, chops, and hesitates, they can put real cash in your account. Sell them into strength, not weakness. Let the market come to you.

If the stock runs away, fine — you made money. If it sits still, you collect. That’s not a bad place to be.

A key thing when selling a covered call on a stock you hold 100 shares of is the strike price and the expiration date. The setup has to be right, with the right stock, to make enough to justify holding it.

Stock Talk

In addition to the stocks mentioned in our previous posts, some of the names above are trading “hot,” at least for now. Being well aware how “hot” can turn, the daring should consider portion control and discipline. That’s why smaller entries, active management, and taking shots (or not) — rather than swinging for the fences — still makes sense here.

- Jones Report

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If interested - scroll back and view notes on other stocks, we watch here at the Jones report.  Why not? With the caveat that things change and we try to stay aware - It's all FREE to read and make your own calls and decisions.  Finally - maintain some dry powder and trade or invest according to your own due diligence.

______________

More later so ....Stay tuned, if you dare!

For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with reality.  Looking ahead a few months may be a way to do things - but thinking too deeply about world events and the recent alliances forming, can make projecting ahead a dicey endeavor. 

All in all - we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly.  Never get arrogant in our notions because things do change - and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside our control. So, we try to -stay aware.

With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.  This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
________

The Market Prefers Blockade to Bombs

      

Market Talk

The Market Prefers Blockade to Bombs

Things are changing fast — and the market is trying to adapt in real time.

What was expected to resolve quickly under President Trump’s initial approach now looks like it could take longer to play out. Whether that leads to a more stable outcome — or not — remains to be seen.

The market may be sending a signal here — it prefers blockade to bombs.

A naval blockade applies pressure, but it keeps things contained. Ships are slowed, routes are redirected, but the system still functions. There’s tension, but not immediate destruction.

That kind of environment, while serious, is something markets can work with.

Bombs are different. Once escalation moves in that direction, the range of outcomes widens fast. Infrastructure can be taken offline, supply shocks hit without warning, and decision-making becomes reactive instead of measured.

That’s when markets lose their footing.

Cutting off Iran’s oil business hits where it matters — money. Even for a regime rooted in radical Islamic ideology, that kind of pressure can trigger threats toward neighboring Gulf ports.

Nevertheless, President Trump’s strategy appears to introduce a different kind of pressure — force without immediate escalation, and a more controlled use of U.S. naval power in the region.

How long this blockade approach takes to play out is unknown. Even with leadership pressure at the top, the Iranian Guard and the regime remain defiant.

Does this resolve quickly — or turn into a drawn-out standoff? And how they choose to escalate is still an open question.

It’s not far-fetched to think this kind of pressure takes time to play out.

In the meantime, as the market waits, some green shoots in the U.S. may begin to re-emerge — creating trading opportunities along the way.

The bigger question may be how long it takes for the Persian Gulf to become a stable shipping lane again.

Until then, expectations for higher oil prices are already building. That window could favor domestic supply and shift attention toward U.S. energy. That’s why we’re watching two Permian Basin stocks in the Texas heartland.

So far, the market appears to be adjusting — not panicking.

That doesn’t mean risk is gone. It means risk is being contained, for now.

Stock Talk

How traders and investors respond to this environment comes down to individual risk tolerance and approach.

We’re seeing a market that flips between risk-on and risk-off — sometimes in the same session. But underneath that, there may be a shift toward accepting a higher baseline level of tension.

A few we’re watching:

Hard assets: KGC, HL
Energy: DVN, PR
Tech: NVTS, GFS, INTC
Defense: KTOS, AVAV

Each with its own drivers — commodities, chips, and energy flows.

More speculative (smaller positions):
ONCY, ANVS, OKLO

This is a quick read in a fast-moving environment.

Staying disciplined matters here. Smaller positions. Controlled exposure. Let things develop before pressing.

Markets trade the headline…
but they settle on reality.

- Jones Report

________

If interested - scroll back and view notes on other stocks, we watch here at the Jones report.  Why not? With the caveat that things change and we try to stay aware - It's all FREE to read and make your own calls and decisions.  Finally - maintain some dry powder and trade or invest according to your own due diligence.

______________

More later so ....Stay tuned, if you dare!

For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with reality.  Looking ahead a few months may be a way to do things - but thinking too deeply about world events and the recent alliances forming, can make projecting ahead a dicey endeavor. 

All in all - we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly.  Never get arrogant in our notions because things do change - and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside our control. So, we try to -stay aware.

With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.  This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
________

Is Volatility the New Normal?

       

Market Talk

In this new economic climate, markets are increasingly being measured against the backdrop of a widening conflict in the Middle East. And things are changing fast.

Over the weekend, talks broke down after nearly a full day of negotiations, with reports that Iran would not agree to halt its nuclear ambitions. A fragile ceasefire is now under pressure, and in response, the U.S. has moved to impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports.

What that means for global shipping — especially oil and gas moving through the Persian Gulf — is still unfolding. Tankers are caught in the middle, and how freely they move from here is an open question.

At the same time, President Trump is encouraging energy flows to shift toward more stable and friendly channels — here in the U.S. and through Venezuelan supply routes.

So the question becomes — does this reset the risk profile across sectors?

Do tech and growth names settle into this volatility as part of a “new normal”? Or does uncertainty keep pressure on anything not tied directly to hard assets and cash flow?

That’s what the market is trying to sort out — in real time.

Stock Talk

How traders and investors respond to this “new normal” comes down to individual risk tolerance and approach.

We’re seeing a market that flips between risk-on and risk-off — sometimes in the same session. That kind of environment can either burn itself off… or snap in unpredictable ways.

A few we’re watching:

Hard assets: KGC, HL
Energy: DVN, PR
Tech: NVTS, GFS, INTC
Defense: KTOS

Each with its own set of drivers — from commodities to chips to energy flows.

This is a quick wrap in a fast-moving environment.

Staying disciplined matters here. Smaller positions. Controlled exposure. Let things develop before pressing.

Markets trade the headline…
but they settle on reality.

- Jones Report

________

If interested - scroll back and view notes on other stocks, we watch here at the Jones report.  Why not? With the caveat that things change and we try to stay aware - It's all FREE to read and make your own calls and decisions.  Finally - maintain some dry powder and trade or invest according to your own due diligence.

______________

More later so ....Stay tuned, if you dare!

For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with reality.  Looking ahead a few months may be a way to do things - but thinking too deeply about world events and the recent alliances forming, can make projecting ahead a dicey endeavor. 

All in all - we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly.  Never get arrogant in our notions because things do change - and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside our control. So, we try to -stay aware.

With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.  This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
________

Risk-On Rally Meets Reality Check

       

Market Talk

A two-week ceasefire has been declared between the U.S. and Iran with each side claiming victory. Negotiations will continue along with a tentative agreement to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, allowing ships to pass through the 24 mile-wide passage at its narrowest point.

The markets are responding with a relief rally on hope the ceasefire will last and negotiations will move toward something more lasting.

But within a day, Iran is right back at it — missiles toward Kuwait and the UAE, while telling Israel to stand down against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The market likes the surface aspects — but are they just superficial talking points, like a strawman paper deal with no backbone to make the regime comply with a non-aggressive approach to the region and stop their jihad ideology?

All in all, the market is saying risk back on.

Oil and natural gas are down as money rotates out of a volatile energy sector.

Gold is back on. KGC in the gold mining sector and HL in the silver mining sector are back on.

Tech stocks are back on — at least for now.

A relief rally can take hold or fizzle as realities of market forces take hold.

That said, stocks may have room to run because the economy does have some green shoots showing up this spring, and if energy / oil price hike fears subside, a better picture can play out.

It’s too early to know if a ceasefire will hold — uncertainty remains.

One thing though — the U.S. wants it to last so we can wrap this up and move on. But just leaving is not a viable option. The Middle East needs to be in a more stable status.

Stock Talk

How traders and investors approach a relief rally is up to each — we don’t make buy or sell calls here.

However, it does not seem prudent to be trading oil stocks in this climate.

On the other hand, gold and silver remain viable, and in that light, miners like KGC and HL remain on the Jones watch list.

There are many risk-on stocks — too many to mention.

A few we are watching:

KGC
HL
NVTS
GFS
INTC

Each with their own market dynamics.

This is a quick wrap to address the relief rally we are seeing the day after a ceasefire was announced.

Will it last?

Time and further peace negotiations remain to be seen.

Staying disciplined and circumspect with portion control, smaller new positions — that’s one way to navigate uncertainty.

Markets trade the headline… but they settle on reality.

- Jones Report

________

If interested - scroll back and view notes on other stocks, we watch here at the Jones report.  Why not? With the caveat that things change and we try to stay aware - It's all FREE to read and make your own calls and decisions.  Finally - maintain some dry powder and trade or invest according to your own due diligence.

______________

More later so ....Stay tuned, if you dare!

For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with reality.  Looking ahead a few months may be a way to do things - but thinking too deeply about world events and the recent alliances forming, can make projecting ahead a dicey endeavor. 

All in all - we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly.  Never get arrogant in our notions because things do change - and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside our control. So, we try to -stay aware.

With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.  This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
________

Gauging the Winds — Between Outcomes

        

Gauging the Winds — Between Outcomes

Market Talk

There’s a lot hitting the market at once, and not all of it lines up cleanly.

The Iran situation has pushed energy back into focus. Oil moving higher brings back inflation concerns that many thought were easing.

At the same time, the global picture feels less settled. NATO alignment doesn’t look as firm as it once did, and that adds another layer of uncertainty.
It starts to feel like we’re sorting through the knowns and unknowns in real time — not all the knowns are known, and we don’t fully know what we don’t know.

Back home, something else is starting to show.

Layoffs in tech are picking up again, and this time AI is part of the shift. Companies are spending heavily in one area while cutting in another.

Even with AI-related layoffs at companies like Oracle, jobs are still being added — 178,000 in March, much of it in healthcare, manufacturing, and construction.
It can read as bullish — if the war resolves sooner rather than later.

At the same time, losses in higher-end tech roles could lead to longer-term income disparity.

So you end up with a mix that’s not easy to price:

• Higher energy pressure
• Early signs of labor shifts
• Global uncertainty
• And a structural change in how companies are hiring

That’s not one issue — it’s several moving at the same time.

The Elephant in the Room — The Iran War

From the start, this was pitched as a short-duration conflict — a matter of weeks, maybe a month, perhaps stretching toward six weeks, but not something “expected” to drag on.

That said, significant damage has been inflicted on Iran’s military infrastructure. Missile sites, production facilities, and launch capabilities have all taken heavy hits.

Yet the story doesn’t end there.

Iran still has the ability to fire missiles and drones — not at the same pace, but enough to keep pressure on Israel and extend reach into the region, including targets tied to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.

So where do things stand?

The administration is framing this as a temporary economic shock — something that will work through the system and eventually settle.

With air dominance by U.S. and Israeli forces, the conflict has largely stayed in that domain. It creates the appearance of pressure without moving toward a broader ground war.

From there, it starts to look like a test of outcomes.

Will Iran step back from its nuclear ambitions and regional posture, reopen key channels like the Strait of Hormuz, and move toward broader engagement?

Or does it absorb further damage — potentially to critical infrastructure like the electrical grid — and continue to resist?

Keeping the conflict in the air may avoid the risks of a ground campaign, but it brings its own consequences. Civilian infrastructure becomes part of the pressure, and ordinary Iranians would feel that directly.

This raises an important question — does pressure lead to a serious reassessment on the part of a dug-in regime… or further entrenchment?

That’s the part that’s hard to read.  Entrenched ideologies are not easily shifted.

It may seem straightforward on the surface — but it depends on decisions that are not entirely predictable from the outside.

From here, it can look like the regime remains committed to its path, even as the pressure builds.
And in that, many civilians are caught in the middle.

What does that lead to?

From this vantage point, it starts to resemble prolonged entrenchment.

Not an easy outcome to absorb — and not an appealing one, especially if it means deeper damage to civilian life and infrastructure.

Which leaves open another possibility.

The resolution may not come as a clean resolution at all — more a continuation, adjustments around the edges, and a conflict that stretches longer than first expected.

And so the timeline becomes part of the story.

From the beginning, the message has been consistent — this is a short war. Weeks, not months.

The administration continues to frame it that way, suggesting the endgame is approaching, with a clear message being sent — negotiate, or face continued pressure.

Air power has carried most of the effort, keeping the conflict largely above ground while thousands of troops remain staged as a backstop.

On the other side, the response has been just as firm.

Iran signals resistance, not surrender.

So the standoff takes shape.

A short timeline on one side.
Defiance on the other.

And so the timeline becomes its own story.

Two more weeks.
Then perhaps two more after that.
And then again.

Stock Talk

The market feels like it’s floating here.

Not breaking down, not breaking out — just hovering, maybe even teetering around these levels of uncertainty.

There’s a sense it’s waiting.

Waiting for clarity on the Iran situation.
Waiting to see how energy settles.
Waiting on where global alignment lands.
Waiting to see how far this AI shift goes in the labor market.

Until some of that resolves, the moves can feel incomplete.
Volatility seems to prevail on headlines.

You get strength, but it doesn’t fully carry.
You get weakness, but it doesn’t fully break.

More like a market in pause — watching, reacting, but not committing.

For traders, staying involved in a few shares here and there can help keep a finger on the pulse — longer-term ideas, but in sizes that don’t interfere with sleep.

We’re noticing a few names that seem to be holding their own, each for different reasons — more as examples of what we’re watching than anything else.

KGC continues to track the gold story, even with the usual volatility around it.
NVTS stays tied to the AI power buildout theme, where spending still looks firm.
GFS fits into that mix as well — semiconductors from an American base reaching into global production, touching everything from cars and appliances to defense, aerospace, and medical equipment.

Possibly some DVN and PR as well — tied to the energy angle — but it seems like every time they start to move higher, valuation stories show up, suggesting they may already be priced too high.

That same pattern seems to pop up across the market.

Strength appears, then quickly gets questioned.

At times, it almost feels like there’s constant pressure leaning against moves, no matter the sector.

And the market winds, at least for now, suggest lighter positioning, with dry powder still on the sidelines.

It doesn’t feel broad — at least not right now.

Wrap

In a waiting market, something always happens.
And sometimes, it all adds up at once.

It can go either way from here.
Staying cool and a bit circumspect may help navigate.

That may be what we’re seeing now.

Dry powder still matters.

- Jones Report

________

If interested - scroll back and view notes on other stocks, we watch here at the Jones report.  Why not? With the caveat that things change and we try to stay aware - It's all FREE to read and make your own calls and decisions.  Finally - maintain some dry powder and trade or invest according to your own due diligence.

______________

More later so ....Stay tuned, if you dare!

For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with reality.  Looking ahead a few months may be a way to do things - but thinking too deeply about world events and the recent alliances forming, can make projecting ahead a dicey endeavor. 

All in all - we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly.  Never get arrogant in our notions because things do change - and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside our control. So, we try to -stay aware.

With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.  This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
________

Mixed Signals, Shifting Sectors

        

Market Talk

 Mixed Signals, Shifting Sectors

As this Middle East conflict continues, expect mixed signals from the market. Some pundits and money managers are backing off.

That’s what we’re seeing now. Oil and natural gas are front and center in the headlines, and the tape is reacting day to day, sometimes hour to hour. You get a pop, then a fade. Strength in one corner, weakness in another.

But here’s what the market can’t price cleanly:

How long does this last, and how does it end?

That’s where the uncertainty is.

Gold down hard, oil up strong — nothing in sync.

The first could snap back but moves like we've seen lately shake out the miners hard.

So what have we seen?

Choppy moves. Sector rotation. Energy spikes that don’t always hold. Risk-on one day, risk-off the next.

This is not a clean trend environment. It’s a read-the-wind environment.

Stock Talk

Two we’ve watched for a while — even in more “normal” times — DVN and PR.

DVN is oil and gas. PR is smaller, oil-driven, with some gas. 

Both are working real reserves out of the Permian here at home. 

As this situation drags on, names like these could start getting more attention. Maybe opportunity, maybe peril. Maybe catch some… or run. 

Dry powder still matters.

- Jones Report

________

If interested - scroll back and view notes on other stocks, we watch here at the Jones report.  Why not? With the caveat that things change and we try to stay aware - It's all FREE to read and make your own calls and decisions.  Finally - maintain some dry powder and trade or invest according to your own due diligence.

______________

More later so ....Stay tuned, if you dare!

For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with reality.  Looking ahead a few months may be a way to do things - but thinking too deeply about world events and the recent alliances forming, can make projecting ahead a dicey endeavor. 

All in all - we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly.  Never get arrogant in our notions because things do change - and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside our control. So, we try to -stay aware.

With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.  This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
________