Sunday Edition
Market Talk
The market indices have been floating at or near all-time highs, even against the backdrop of war and ongoing tensions tied to Iran and the broader Middle East.
One view is that these tensions resolve quickly—oil pulls back, inflation eases, and markets continue higher. Another is that tensions drag on—oil stays elevated, inflation lingers, and pressure builds on both the economy and markets.
Both sound possible… and yet the market impacts often seem to contradict each other. At times, the market seems to price one outcome—then quickly lean the other way.
In one narrative, markets go on and themes continue—almost “business as usual” in some sectors like AI buildouts. In another, higher costs start to bite. Affordability gets squeezed. And throw in the possibility that firms lean more on AI than human resources… and job losses begin to enter the picture.
Perhaps that second narrative brings inflation back into the mix—reducing the chances of rate cuts going forward.
With market indices at or near all-time highs, a clouded narrative may begin to fuel hesitation… and a bit of market fatigue. On the other hand, markets sometimes seem to ignore Main Street hardship, trading instead on Wall Street exuberance.
For example, Friday’s trading—with the Dow off nearly 500—saw a broad hit across stocks. Perhaps a sign of market exhaustion beginning… or not.
Recall last year—some stocks climbed, then faded as earnings reality set in.
Each investor has to weigh their own narrative. There are all kinds of sayings—“it’s not timing the market, it’s time in the market.” On the other hand, being aware of how corrections can hurt a balance matters too.
Where this leads isn’t always clear. But with markets near highs, a correction is always possible. And when it comes, it often doesn’t matter which sector was the darling—the tide can take out all boats.
That’s the idea.
It’s always more fun to see foresight play out in the bullish sense… with some skin in the game. But the other side is staying aware of positioning—and the risk of downside.
Sometimes the saying we use is “some… not too much.” And “maintain dry powder”—to see how things play out.
Now we can start to break it down—because each sector, each stock, has its own narrative.
Stock Talk
Let’s use Intel as a watch stock example.
For years, Intel powered our laptops and desktops—“Intel Inside”—quality chips for everyday use.
The notion of Intel finally gaining ground in the AI world helped the stock suddenly surge. Some were in some—nice.
But now, with INTC over the 100 mark, investors may pause… and start looking inside with a bit more scrutiny.
The last report showed Non-GAAP EPS of $0.53… while GAAP came in at -$0.09. The market chose its number—and the stock followed.
But non-GAAP earnings remove expenses a company chooses to exclude.
No watcher can deny that once INTC pushed past 100, the stock surged further on reports of Apple possibly using Intel in new products. Did it seem a little curious… the timing of it all?
That’s where narratives can start to drift.
It’s more fun to stay bullish… and ride the wave. But after a big run, it can become time to stay aware of the narrative… versus the reality.
GAAP… versus non-GAAP.
Story… versus execution.
Jones way—more greens than reds - "Some" - and maintain dry powder.
In other stocks, no need here to belabor the point.
People are paying up at the pump and the grocery. Discretionary spending may slow… and personal debt may rise.
Not great for the economy. Not great for markets.
Not the most “fun” way to close.
But it’s no fun to give it back… after a good run.
No need to belabor the point in one Sunday Edition.
More will come… as markets, events, and companies play out.
Stay Watchful - Things can change.
- Jones Report
This site is just for fun and insight, with no sponsors and no affiliations. If you like this free Jones Report, tell a friend. Why not?
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More later so ....Stay tuned, if you dare!
For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with reality. Looking ahead a few months may be a way to do things - but thinking too deeply about world events and the recent alliances forming, can make projecting ahead a dicey endeavor.
All in all - we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly. Never get arrogant in our notions because things do change - and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside our control. So, we try to -stay aware.
With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.
ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more. This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
Stay Watchful.
- Jones Report
This site is just for fun and insight, with no sponsors and no affiliations. If you like this free Jones Report, tell a friend. Why not?
________
______________
More later so ....Stay tuned, if you dare!
For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with reality. Looking ahead a few months may be a way to do things - but thinking too deeply about world events and the recent alliances forming, can make projecting ahead a dicey endeavor.
All in all - we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly. Never get arrogant in our notions because things do change - and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside our control. So, we try to -stay aware.
With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.
