NVDA bell weather stock

 

 

 

Market Talk

There are changing market views happening all at once since the election .  In times of transition - positioning and sector rotations can cause more volatility than normal. In addition, there are geopolitical changes escalating in the Ukraine with Russia bringing in N. Korea troops and arms to the fight.  In turn, Biden gave the go ahead for our arms to be allowed to breech into Russia.  From a stronger dollar, to gold trading down to bitcoin rising are examples of changing sectors.  One thing to remember is how this all plays out can change all over again.

One stock, NVDA, with a 3.6 Trillion market cap reports tomorrow at the close.  The quarterly earnings along with updates on their newest Blackwell chips along with possible issues that may impact deliveries will be scrutinized by the analysts.   There have been NVDA share price upgrades by some analysts .  And some say depending on the guidance the NVDA share price could swing plus or minus 12%.

Well market watchers... prepare for NVDA to be a bell weather stock to watch tomorrow and some days to come.

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For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor.  In all -  we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly.  Remember, never get arrogant in our various notions because things do change in the market and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside of our control.. So we try to -stay aware.

With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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In Uncertain markets - Be circumspect and Keep some Powder Dry..

 

 

Market Talk

Yesterday, Fed Chairman J . Powell  made "Fed speak" statements that revealed the latest from their view.  Basically, the Fed is in no particular hurry to lower interest rates, although they do project them coming down if the economy slows to a point they feel necessary.

The Fed's job is to watch inflationary trends and try to manage the economy with interest rate adjustments on money supply so that  steady employment and economy is maintained.  Now THAT can be a complicated task with many dynamics in play including having to deal with factors such as necessary and excess government spending that go along with governing America.  This is the reason why the Federal reserve is an independent Government agency.  The Fed chairman is appointed by the President for a four year term and has to be confirmed by the banking committee in the Senate.  The president may not have the legal authority to dismiss a chairman before the end of a term, although this assumption has never been tested in court.^[3]

And while the overall government policies are led by the duly elected President and either supported or denied by the congress- The Federal reserve is there to independently manage policy related to money supply to the general economy. This is important to the stock market because how the Fed manages interest rates has a far reaching effect on spending, investing, savings ,building, jobs, goods and services related to the public.

The stock markets react to the Fed decisions because it is a forward looking beast. 

near term "Market outlook" from the Jones view:

At this time of transition between the Biden and Trump administration there may be some serious sector rotations with "uncertainty" being the key word. The markets can over react in periods of uncertainty and high volatility can prevail.

Example: yesterday, we saw what one would think be a strong sector as in defense contractors do the opposite and have a serious downward share price hit in stocks like Raytheon, Leidos and  Lockheed Martin. For the small investor, the view here is caution in making big moves and preserving a fair amount of dry powder in trading terms along with the stocks you may have strong conviction. But be circumspect on conviction if the market gets too dicey and more unpredictable.

In taking a position in stocks we often use the words  "some" or "not too much"  or we edge into or out of a position to take some gains or cut losses.  That's the way we roll lately because the markets are at all time highs and many stocks are " priced to perfection" .  Stocks are relative stores of value to all other stores of value and prices can change dramatically in uncertain times.

 

Stock Talk

It's a dicey market with uncertainty in the air.

Some symbols to consider as "some".  

Altria Group, Inc (MO):  consistent earnings and dividend stock. 

 not a stock to get wrapped into the business but it's performed. don't smoke / make money stock . reinvest dividends, schnitzel as desired or add as warranted. Hold some MO and make $ stock.

Permian Resources (PR) : raised the dividend and solid growth ahead with changing drill baby drill and opening the valves on Natural Gas in America. Nat gas is the transition fuel for cleaner air and energy to the world.  The Jones view is that the new administration has the right flick on oil and natural gas.  PR may be priced right in the $14 ish range to start or hold a position for the coming times of drill baby drill.  But opening the ports to export LNG may have a  positive result for PR in the future.  Strong 3rd Quarter results with a nice dividend raise points to success with the changing times:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/permian-resources-announces-strong-third-212200377.html

Watch the Gold miners:  We liked Kinross Gold miner (KGC) at $6 and held thru the 10's.  BUT sheesh!  after reporting and beating estimated earnings, the stock still sank back to the 9's.  KGC remains a frustrating stock to the small investor that held thinking the stock warranted higher.  But alas, with the election, Gold price has traded down from over $2700 to the $2500's again.  KGC merits watching but there is something going on with share level resistance in double digits. It's a watch stock maybe a some stock or maybe more on sidelines for awhile.

A speculative issue but seems worthy of holding some:

ASP Isotopes (ASPI):  highlighted here:

https://stockstowatch.blogspot.com/2024/11/further-stock-talk-on-asp-isotopes-aspi.html

side notes:

A note on spec stock QBUT mentioned yesterday.  While Quantum computing is an interesting area to think about, perhaps the stock was over bought on the hype of a PR. It was not certain if it was a "pump and dump" stock or something of the relevant future at least.  It is still not certain in the Jones view-  but yesterday's offering at $2.50 as QBUT traded in the $4's points to being a "pump" stock at least for now.  maybe watch it once in awhile but don't get burned. sidelines safer on QBUT.

Semiconductor stocks:  It is possible a near term sector rotation out of semi conductor stocks is happening.  NVDA will report next week and things may change  - but for stocks priced to perfection - they may see some selling pressure.  Uncertainty prevails till it doesn't.

Until the next update.. 

 suggest to watch the market and stocks you may have conviction in a long position, but also be circumspect on everything in a dicey market of uncertainty.

  ... and keep some powder dry...and God Bless !

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For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor.  In all -  we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly.  Remember, never get arrogant in our various notions because things do change in the market and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside of our control.. So we try to -stay aware.

With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
________

As things change - Everything is relevant to everything else.. (watching Permian Rersources (PR)

 

 

Market Talk

Things are changing with the election results just fresh in the minds of traders and investors.  I ponder - What can I say today that may hold true tomorrow and the coming months?  

Well, I don't know except to pronounce a statement based on a market observation...

Everything is relevant on a scale to everything else.

Now just what do you mean Spider J Jones ????

   -- some readers plaintively remark...

So the answer may be what was relevant before the election may not be as relevant today and tomorrow - and vice versa.

 

Stock Talk

Let's look at an example and an attempt to prognosticate on a sector that could become more relevant than before the election.

 - Natural gas. 

One stock to watch is :  Permian Resources (PR)

PR is in the Permian basin of America and has grown their oil and gas resources significantly.  PR recently increased the dividend and is in a previously "cold" sector that can become a very "hot" sector.  If regulatory restrictions are lifted, it would be clear to any thinking or studied person that Natural Gas is viable energy source for Power Plants to supply electricity to the grid and for co-generation as well.  Natural Gas is much cleaner than coal and new fuel efficient turbines are making them even cleaner.  Nat gas turbines in many cases can be put on line at old power plants much faster and are more reliable than other alternatives.  Lifting of old restrictions could set up America to become an exporter of LNG in a large way.  The long term possibilities of PR gaining in share value are looking more and more "relevant" to this market observer.

For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor.  In all -  we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly.  Remember, never get arrogant in our various notions because things do change in the market and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside of our control.. So we try to -stay aware.

With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
________

Further Stock Talk on ASP Isotopes (ASPI), Bill Gates and TerraPower ... and more ...

 

 

Stock Talk

Recently, the market has been responding to the growing need for energy to support AI. Partnerships are forming and the notion of small modular reactors (SMR) are front and center.  In addition, using conventional nuclear facilities we see that ...

"Microsoft is involved with nuclear power in a few ways, including a deal to purchase all the power from the Three Mile Island nuclear plant and Amazon's purchase of a data center site near the Susquehanna nuclear power plant:

    Three Mile Island
    Microsoft has a long-term power purchase agreement with Three Mile Island that would power about 800,000 homes annually. Instead, Microsoft will use the power to run its data center infrastructure in the area. Ratepayers and the state won't be responsible for the costs to restart the plant. "

Now THAT is telling.  Microsoft see's such a huge need for power dedicated to their data center and AI applications and they are planning to reserve the power that could power nearly a MILLION homes ! But alas - It will take quite awhile to refurbish the useful part of the old three mile island facility. But, this is just the beginning of the story...

You know the old saying- follow the smart money?

Let's follow a trail of bread crumbs left by a pretty smart fellow - Bill Gates.

Last week, there was an announcement that an LLC called TerraPower co-founded by Bill Gates is planning a partnership with a company called ASP Isotopes (ASPI).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asp-isotopes-inc-enters-term-110000638.html 

The plan is for TerraPower to build a plant to use the ASPI laser process to create HALEU Uranium isotopes as fuel for nuclear reactors. A particular feature can extend the life of nuclear fuel and reduce waste.

TerraPower is developing a Small Modular Reactor (SMR)- or in this case it's called a Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR)-  design combining a liquid sodium coolant with a molten salt-based storage system. The prototype is called the Natrium reactor with output power of 345 - 500 megawatts planned for a location in Kemmerer, Wyoming to retire an aging coal plant.

  "WASHINGTON, Oct. 30, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- ASP Isotopes Inc. NASDAQ: ASPI ("ASP Isotopes” or the “Company”), an advanced materials company dedicated to the development of technology and processes for the production of isotopes for use in multiple industries, today announced that it has entered into a term sheet with TerraPower, a nuclear innovation company and advanced nuclear energy developer, related to the construction of a uranium enrichment facility capable of producing High Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) and the future supply of HALEU to TerraPower, as a customer of Quantum Leap Energy LLC (QLE)."

Note Quantum Leap Energy LLC is currently a wholly owned subsidiary of ASP Isotopes, Inc.

So, this partnership involves ASPI/ Quantum leap producing and selling enriched uranium to Terra Power in the planned facility at TerraPower's expense.

A query on Chat -gpt reports that ASPI spinning off the part of Quantum Leap that  produces High - Assay Low Enriched Uranium (HALEU), vital for SMRs is being considered.

But wait -  the story goes on... ASPI can also produce other important isotopes used in the medical field for such areas as imaging and advanced cancer treatments.  In addition  isotopes for creating advanced lasers , semiconductors and even futuristic quantum computers. Apparently , ASPI would focus on these and let the Quantum spinoff work the nuclear power sector.

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Other stocks on watch list:

MO - earnings beat,  stock up with a 7.6% dividend

KGC - Kinross Gold - earnings report on Nov 5, KGC pays a divy

IAG - no dividend, but - growth depends on costs vs Gold price

NVDA, AMD, INTC - watching..

PLTR,  at the close, beat earnings by 1 cent per share for an eps of ten cents.  (The market likes it in after hours but some short covering is going on.)

BBAI,  spec stock on AI  related contracts but it needs more $

more to come -- but hey -  stay tuned for more posts 

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Speculative Biotechs with questions to be answered (someday):

TERN - with an oral pill that brings on faster weight loss than the current leaders ?  stay tuned for subsequent data, in the meantime insiders are buying?

ONCY -  a Pelareorep IV that reportedly makes cancer tumors "hot"  and triggers T Fighter cells? long time coming, who knows?

ANVS - an alzhiemers and Parkinson's drug all in one?

and many more!

____

For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor.  In all -  we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly.  Remember, never get arrogant in our various notions because things do change in the market and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside of our control.. So we try to -stay aware.

With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
________

"Watching" Stocks: ASP Isotopes (ASPI) and Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN )

 

 

Market Talk

The GDP number came out slightly sluggish, but not alarming.  It probably supports the notion of further rate cuts on the way.  Still suggest to maintain some dry Powder in case the "soft landing" notion switches to a harder knock on the head.

 

Stock Talk

First, a note to stay consistent. Yesterday, I  highlighted a post on Ramaco Resources, but later removed it.  Recall we had a near double on METC in the past but let it go after it faded quick from the 20's on insider selling.  Last night, after further review, decided to keep the bullish notions on hold because the bread 'n butter, coking coal for steel, is not estimated to have the returns of last year.  Some analysts are projecting an earnings loss this quarter .   It is still possible they will surprise or an update on REE plans will help the outlook.  Ramaco seems like a good stock to watch, perhaps from the sidelines to see how the earnings and subsequent outlook seem. 

There are two new speculative stocks catching some interest.  I will point them out for interested readers to look into further if you dare. 

Two stocks to Watch:

ASP Isotopes (ASPI) :  A potential partnership with Bill Gates involved Terra Power (LLC) is capturing interest in ASPI.  We mentioned yesterday, this one may have a fair chance at further upside with a few "some" speculative shares.  It's moving higher, still in single digit range.  ASPI  [update 11/03] has a cutting edge process using lasers for enriching Uranium for nuclear Power generation and other elements for medical and advanced semi conductors.  

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/f086639d-4530-3930-974f-614981f46094/asp-isotopes-stock-surges-on.html

Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN) : Last month, TERN saw a lot of insider buying.  Yet the stock still faded down some in share price. The company has a weight loss drug that resulted in faster weight loss with more fat loss than muscle in an early trial. It is early and speculative which raises risk.   However, it is reported to have high insider ownership that institutions favor.

 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/terns-pharmaceuticals-oral-glp-1-132450455.html

For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor.  In all -  we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly.  Remember, never get arrogant in our various notions because things do change in the market and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside of our control.. So we try to -stay aware.

With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
________

Market going "crazy" on AI energy hype -Join the crowd in "some" or just sit the whole thing out? - update 10/29

 

 

Market Talk

With the times and the election coming up, it's hard not for thinkers to be concerned.  The coming election phase is not without risk.  There are some reports that the other side is preparing to make it very difficult for President Trump to take power if he wins the electorate but the Dems gain congressional majority. The civil discourse could cause a lot of national turmoil.  On the other hand if Americans are so fed up , maybe the republicans will sweep advantage in a red wave change of power? That may be the best outcome.  When it comes to elections, things hardly ever work out the way we surmise they may. Add possible election shenanigans and the future telescope becomes like a kaleidoscope looking glass to try to see through. 

On this subject the future of November 5 is closing in on us - just about a week!   Suggest to maintain some dry Powder in case the "soft landing" notion switches to a harder knock on the head.

 Let's stray from above hand wringing and take note of a sector craze  currently happening - right under our noses. 

 

Stock Talk

 Well, we have covered the fast growing need for required energy just to address an AI query as in chat gpt for example.

The craze happening is in small module reactors (SMRs).  These are exactly what the name implies.  The big outfits - Google ,  Amazon and Microsoft all are scrambling for partnership deals in nuclear power to support huge data centers and AI related applications.

Such actual implementation here in America of SMRs is probably YEARS away.  None the less, a few stocks have nearly doubled just in the past week or so.  These are not  buy recommendations, we don't do that here. especially after such a huge run as the hoards clamor to get in what they believe is "early".  However,  I would be remiss not to bring them up here in the Jones report on Stocks to Watch.

• NuScalePower Company (SMR)
  
• Oklo Inc (OKLO)
• ASP Isotopes (ASPI)
• Nano Nuclear Energy (NNE)
  

It should be noted the above are currently losing money and have negative earnings. And it will be awhile, as in years...

(update 10/29 - after further review, ASPI is more about Uranium enrichment for medical and advanced semiconductor areas. 

As a speculation, perhaps of the above, SMR and ASPI would be fair picks for just a few "some" shares to see.)

Never the less the market is going nuts over these stocks doubling them in just the past week.  This has the hallmark of a bubble as a cautionary note.  Will the SMR and nuclear rage continue?  If venturing into stocks like above, it would seem prudent with only very small shares, if any,  to test the run.  It all seems risky and ripe for a shorting style pull back.

For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor.  In all -  we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly.  Remember, never get arrogant in our various notions because things do change in the market and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside of our control.. So we try to -stay aware.

With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
________

Staying long in "some" vs "Jack be nimble".

 

 

Market Talk

A quick note on the market and stocks.  We are living in fast moving and changing times.  This can result in a volatile market with  the various sectors trading on and off against each other. It happens on a daily basis.  If you watch the market and write down the sentiment of the day and stocks that are moving that particular day, it could change the very next day to what was "in" being "out".  

The market is very fickle like that.  Case in point,  take miner  Newmont trading yesterday and today.  Much of their quarterly report was positive , but NEM missed that analysts estimated by a few cents per share. Still, profit was up and a decent Q earnings of 81 cents per share.  Never mind that!  The market punished the stock price on the notion that NEM missed due to higher mining costs in an inflationary world.  Later in the day, outfits like Bloomberg and others put out the notion that NEM results may translate to many of the gold miners, even in all time high gold prices.  Go figure. 

I made the post yesterday to watch out for the "ying yang" of the market and consider the schnitzel move to maybe take some off the top to conserve "dry powder".

Yes folks, these are fast and changing times.  What happens after this crazy election phase is an open question to many .  Some pundits predict troubled or more troubled times than today are coming. Yes, there are the long term convictions vs trading ways to also consider.  To handle the devil of uncertainty, we use the word "some" here.

For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the future days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with the reality of the time.  But trying to look ahead a few months into the future may be a way to do things.  If you think too deep about world events and the recent alliances forming, projecting ahead can be a dicey endeavor.  In all -  we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly.  Remember, never get arrogant in our various notions because things do change in the market and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside of our control.. So we try to -stay aware.

With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
________