A Market Priced to Perfection?

        

Market Talk

This feels like a market priced to perfection.

In this environment, good news is already baked in.
Great news barely gets rewarded.
Anything less than perfect gets sold.

Even institutions are trading short-term.

Look at what happens now.

A company can report strong earnings.
Strong cash flow.
Raising dividends.
Buying back stock.

And the stock still pulls back.

We saw this recently with Kinross Gold Corporation.

Blowout earnings.
Record free cash flow.
Dividend increase.
Buybacks.
Strong balance sheet.

Yet the stock was sold in the short term.

That doesn’t mean the company is broken.
It means the market is demanding perfection — and trading around positions.

This is a market where:

Leaders get used as ATMs.
Laggards get quick bids.
Quality gets temporarily ignored.
Patience gets tested.

Funds are not necessarily exiting.
They are rotating.

Buy. Trim. Rotate. Repeat.

Day trading… with billions.

This is a market for discipline.

Sometimes it calls for trading decisions based on personal awareness of new market dynamics.

Risk is not always rewarded.

Some positions may need trimming for self-preservation —
so you can fight again in a better climate.

Sometimes it may be better to hold more dry powder,
to maintain your personal arsenal
for when the skies clear.

Some stocks take quiet conviction
when the one-day-wonder crowd trades away a great company.

Those same traders often regret it
when a staggered staircase chart climbs on real fundamentals.

For investors, this is one of the hardest markets.

You can be right on the company.
Right on the numbers.
Right on the outlook.

And still be early —
or feel late in a market that keeps moving the goalposts.

That doesn’t mean you are wrong.
It means the market is distorted.

These “perfection markets” don’t last forever.

Eventually, fundamentals matter again.
Cash flow matters again.
Balance sheets matter again.

When that happens, quality usually leads.

Until then, expect noise, frustration, and constant rotation.

This is not a market for emotion.

It is a market for discipline.

- Jones Report

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If interested - scroll back and view notes on other stocks, we watch here at the Jones report.  Why not? With the caveat that things change and we try to stay aware - It's all FREE to read and make your own calls and decisions.  Finally - maintain some dry powder and trade or invest according to your own due diligence.

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More later so ....Stay tuned, if you dare!

For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with reality.  Looking ahead a few months may be a way to do things - but thinking too deeply about world events and the recent alliances forming, can make projecting ahead a dicey endeavor. 

All in all - we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly.  Never get arrogant in our notions because things do change - and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside our control. So, we try to -stay aware.

With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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The Market Bounces with Hope, Hype, and Volatility - 2/11 Update: GFS Beats Earnings estimates.

        

Market Talk

This is not an easy market to navigate.

Volatility in many stocks has become a roller coaster, swinging from doom and gloom to “happy days are here again” in a matter of days. Today’s bounce pushed the Dow to an all-time high above 50,000. But if you were holding certain names — Amazon, for example, down sharply — you may not be sharing the enthusiasm of the hyped-up TV commentators.

To many traders and investors, this market feels almost bi-polar.

Is today’s end-of-week rally the start of a new trend? Or is it a one-day “happy slap,” only to be followed by renewed selling from hedge funds and short sellers?

Decisions about deploying sidelined cash are personal.  One possible approach is to test the trend with small positions in stocks you have conviction in and see whether the reset proves real.

Stock Talk

In times like these, sometimes the best approach is a small position to test the trend in a stock you believe in.

One remaining area of interest here is gold. Silver has become more uncertain, as its volatility may be reflecting concerns about a possible economic slowdown. At the same time, some recent swings may simply reflect misplaced views on future demand and temporary market distortions.

Judging by today’s positive move, there appears to be renewed conviction that silver demand remains intact. Claims that solar manufacturers will quickly replace silver in panels that improve conductivity may or may not prove accurate. As a result, some pundits are now suggesting that the “silver short” thesis is on hold.
Among the miners, several names stand out.

Kinross Gold (KGC) offers both gold and silver exposure.

Hecla Mining (HL) remains primarily a silver producer following its recent gold asset sale.

Coeur Mining (CDE) continues to produce both gold and silver.

In this market, certainty is hard to come by. Still, fundamentals such as earnings growth and fiscal discipline may support continued upside. Whether that plays out remains unclear. From this desk, these names look constructive — with the caveat that conditions can change quickly.

Among other Jones watch stocks, it bears repeating these are watch stocks. Prices can move up or down.

One notable bounce today was in Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS), tied to growing interest in high-power semiconductors for data centers supported by NVIDIA.  During this transition, Navitas has at times been overlooked as it shifts toward higher-power applications:

https://stockstowatch.blogspot.com/2025/10/nvts-coming-game-changer-behind-ais.html

Also noteworthy is GlobalFoundries (GFS), which is positioned to manufacture Navitas chips domestically. Recall that GFS once produced chips for Advanced Micro Devices before much of that production moved offshore.

GlobalFoundries serves what might be called the “electronics of everything,” supplying many industries with specialized chips. With renewed emphasis on domestic manufacturing, GFS remains a solid watch candidate.  (Update 02/11)- GFS reported quarterly results today.  "On an adjusted basis, the company earned 55 cents ​per share, ‌compared with estimates of a profit of ​47 cents."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/globalfoundries-expects-strong-quarterly-revenue-124406673.html

Today's earnings beat and lift in share price seems to place GFS even higher on the list of stocks to watch for future performance.

This area will be explored further in future posts. For everyday readers, be prepared to be somewhat gobsmacked by the science of smallness — measured in nanometers.

In Closing

This is just a snapshot of current market conditions and a few stocks we continue to watch.
Be watchful and circumspect at your own trading and investment desk. Stay tuned here if you enjoy these posts — and feel free to share them with others. They remain free to read, with no obligation beyond doing your own homework.

- Jones Report

________

If interested - scroll back and view notes on other stocks, we watch here at the Jones report.  Why not? With the caveat that things change and we try to stay aware - It's all FREE to read and make your own calls and decisions.  Finally - maintain some dry powder and trade or invest according to your own due diligence.

______________

More later so ....Stay tuned, if you dare!

For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with reality.  Looking ahead a few months may be a way to do things - but thinking too deeply about world events and the recent alliances forming, can make projecting ahead a dicey endeavor. 

All in all - we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly.  Never get arrogant in our notions because things do change - and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside our control. So, we try to -stay aware.

With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
________

A Dour Mood Casts Market Shadows

       

Market Talk

This is a quick update to note the obvious — the market has turned ugly.

Many of the big names have started tumbling on concerns about capital expenses tied to planned AI buildouts. Jobs numbers are creating worries about hiring slowdowns and sudden layoffs. Add geopolitical tensions and national angst over border enforcement to the mix, and it all adds up to a more dour mood.

The old saying “priced to perfection” is hitting stocks that report good earnings but questionable outlooks. Intel is an example.

Stock Talk

During times like these, sometimes the best approach is a small position — or no position at all.

One remaining area of interest here is gold. Silver has become more uncertain, as its volatility may be reflecting concerns about a possible economic slowdown. At the same time, some of the recent swings may simply reflect misplaced views on future demand and temporary market distortions.

Either way, it can be difficult to sit through, and profit-taking becomes another factor to manage when holding long positions.

One stock on the Jones list that remains interesting is Kinross Gold (KGC).

Miners are not getting much respect. At the same time, elevated gold prices could become a catalyst with coming earnings. As pointed out in past posts, back-of-the-envelope earnings estimates continue to support current share values and a possible breakout.

However, the recent dour mood and losses in other stocks can spill into even very good names and create volatility.

Regardless, based on fundamentals alone, Kinross remains one of the better stocks to watch in this troubled market.

- Jones Report

________

If interested - scroll back and view notes on other stocks, we watch here at the Jones report.  Why not? With the caveat that things change and we try to stay aware - It's all FREE to read and make your own calls and decisions.  Finally - maintain some dry powder and trade or invest according to your own due diligence.

______________

More later so ....Stay tuned, if you dare!

For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with reality.  Looking ahead a few months may be a way to do things - but thinking too deeply about world events and the recent alliances forming, can make projecting ahead a dicey endeavor. 

All in all - we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly.  Never get arrogant in our notions because things do change - and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside our control. So, we try to -stay aware.

With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
________

Sunday Jones Edition - When the Tape Breaks but the Math Doesn’t - Miners: Media crash hype doesn't line up with the math

       

Sunday Jones Edition

When the Tape Breaks but the Math Doesn’t

 -Miners: Media crash hype doesn’t line up with the math

On Friday, the miner's tape was downright ugly as gold and silver corrected on a perceived shift tied to a potential May change in Fed leadership — one that may ultimately prove less hawkish than initially assumed. The tape damage was real. But before jumping to conclusions, it’s worth stepping back and asking a simpler question: what does a relatively modest ~8% correction in gold actually mean for the bottom line?

Let’s look at Kinross Gold (KGC) miner with some simple back-of-the-envelope estimates going forward. Assume — even if it proves unlikely — that gold fades back toward the $3,800 per ounce range. With share buybacks already completed, Kinross Gold now has roughly 1.22 billion shares outstanding, down materially from prior levels near 1.8 billion.

Using all-in sustaining costs (AISC) — the industry measure of the average cost to produce and sustain an ounce, including operating costs and ongoing mine maintenance (and net of by-product credits like silver) — running around $1,500 per ounce, even pricing gold conservatively at $3,800 (which it is not today), the math still points to quarterly EPS above $0.50 and annual EPS of $2 or more. On normalized multiples, that level of earnings continues to support KGC share prices well into the $30s.

One nuance the tape often ignores is silver. For Kinross, silver flows through as a cost credit, not headline revenue. When silver prices are elevated, AISC comes down, quietly widening margins and cushioning earnings even if gold backs off late in the quarter.
The selloff itself appeared driven by systematic risk reduction, forced selling, and aggressive shorting into a gold correction — not a sudden change in fundamentals. Large players often respond to the same signals at the same time, producing moves that feel coordinated even when they are structural. That’s how crowded trades get reset.

Stepping back, this exercise is not about defending the tape. It’s about separating emotional fear trading from the projected earnings impact of a gold baseline that remains historically elevated and arguably supported by global demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and ongoing questions around fiat currencies.

The fear-driven unwind belied an underlying bull case that remains intact on the numbers. Value can be analyzed; timing in a volatile market is dicey. How each reader acts on that framework will depend on individual resources and risk-reward considerations.

Related reading:  Barron's suggested that silver - and select gold miners- may present opportunity following the pullbck.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/silver-is-paying-for-its-excesses-silver-miner-stocks-may-be-a-buy/ar-AA1VlS6o?uxmode=ruby&ocid=edgntpruby&pc=ACTS&cvid=697e2961ff1e4a9d990c95524cefd8ae&ei=25

- Jones Report

________

If interested - scroll back and view notes on other stocks, we watch here at the Jones report.  Why not? With the caveat that things change and we try to stay aware - It's all FREE to read and make your own calls and decisions.  Finally - maintain some dry powder and trade or invest according to your own due diligence.

______________

More later so ....Stay tuned, if you dare!

For now, we close by noting that any view on the market and stocks on any particular day may change in the days to come. That is why we watch and see how our views match up with reality.  Looking ahead a few months may be a way to do things - but thinking too deeply about world events and the recent alliances forming, can make projecting ahead a dicey endeavor. 

All in all - we use the word maybe "some", not "too much" and play it accordingly.  Never get arrogant in our notions because things do change - and individual stocks are subject to many factors outside our control. So, we try to -stay aware.

With all the above caveats and attempted prognostications, I will close this post. Stay tuned for more opining on the market and stocks to watch.

___________

ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more.This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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