Saturday, September 13, 2008


Tradervic asks ...

>>OK .......Just how do you support your view point, which I surely hope is right on the money........I am a long term investor from 4 years ago........the company has just been dead money for some time now, at this point I guess I am staying in for the tax loss..........

Good Question Tradervic. I will now explain how I support my viewpoint :

TWO things, stimuvax is in phase 3 for 19 months now.

The survival chart of Phase 2 started showing a major difference between placebo people and Stimuvax groups even after only 10 months!

Now after that - you have to look that the survival data is also backed up by a separate Phase 2A trial with a smaller group.

So you either connect the dots out to the future and see success or you don't. It's all in your outlook. Ask yourself if Merck and ONTY can achieve something never done before? With all the data I have, I give them a 55 % chance of success. I believe it is higher, but on THIS site - We always temper ourselves so NOT to get so bullish that we put the farm on ANY stock views. We keep DRY powder ready at ALL times.

BUT- There are wildcards in my view. With ONTY's small shares outstanding even with 5 Mil new shares, about 27 Mil shares countng the 2 Mil warrants - I "believe" we may just have an extreme levered up situation to return ONTY to higher "intrinisic" values that playinmachine once posted over and over about. Guess what? chicken butt.

NO really ! Playinmachine was RIGHT! $8 to $10 is NOT unreasonable! as long as we get continued conformation on Stimuvax being in game.

Where ol' playinmachine and many others here were off was on the timing of the matter.

My timing on this issue is right headed, In my humble opinion.

My timing was based on much corresponsdence with media and cajoling them to cover ONTY. I found out that ONTY is invisible to the market and that the staggering numbers of success are being ignored. To me such invisibilty is one thing at this particular moment on the continuum of the time chart- OPPORTUNITY to get some CHEAP again.

Stimuvax is STILL going to be known as the shot of hope to help people help themselves fight cancer using their own immune system t helper cells that are trained to fight cancer. So trader- I have explained in detail what backs up my view on many fronts.

I say again- Stimuvax being 19 months into Phase3 with 1,322 people being enrolled and 440 FDA - placebo guinea pigs as soldiers makes ONTY exrtremely undervlaued.

But I consider it all about a 55 % chance of success just because so many have failed at trying to do what ONTY and Merck are undertaking. The price of failure would hurt badly ONTY shareholders.

But the taste of success would be a sweet reward to those who back this glorious mission. To the order of AT least a 100 X gainer...

In the meantime, those who can Smell success rather than fully taste it, could be sweetly rewarded also for their pain n suffering thru the grind.

ya know I am pondering something kind of funny ..

We think of banking stocks and financials like Lehman bros. All these analysts said to invest in good "solid" blue chips. Now we see what was considered "solid" as being BILLIONs in debt and going under...

I am just sayin' what a funny topsy turvy world we live in...

ONTY has a fairly solid balance sheet and is making apparent progres in bringing something to help us fight a scourge of mankind- a stock that could earn hundreds of MILLIONS maybe BILLIONs in due time- with low outstanding shares of soon to be only about 27 Mil shares (counting the 2 Mil warrants ) - AND its UNDER 2 BUCKS!!!

I find that laughable - BUT I "smell" opportunty! In "some" ONTY shares.

To traders and Investors like us --

It is a Thunderdome WORLD FOR sure.



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